WV3- Why isn´t this race seen as very competitive?

[BlueDogs2020]

I am not surprised that the media has largely ignored this race due to Trump´s huge margin of victory in the district. But State Senator Ojeda is a super strong candidate with grassroots support, a good message, and a progressive streak with hints of moderate/conservative views of his district. He has seen an enormous leap in fundraising, will certainly win his primary, and is facing off against lukewarm establishment Republicans. Ojeda was a very important voice for teachers during their strike, and has also pledged to not take any money except from individuals and unions.
But the race is rated as ¨Likely R¨ by Sabato´s Crystal Ball and Cook Political Report and ¨Safe R¨ by all others------- why?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Prognosticators like to be careful and not change ratings until they see tangible evidence.

[ON Progressive]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

Manchin won't even win the district if Jenkins is the nominee lol.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

I'm not sure being in Congress for four decades is actually viewed as a positive by most voters. Like, I'm no fan of Congressional term limits, but that's ridiculous.

[Bidenworth2020]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

what?

evan Jenkins was a former Democrat, and it was 2014. Even though it was 2014, a less strong republican probably only narrowly wins or probably loses even.

 

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

senator roy moore can tell you how much trump approval matters in elections.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

Manchin won't even win the district if Jenkins is the nominee lol.

Manchin is losing the 3rd District regardless. His path towards victory is to run up the score in the 1st and 2nd Districts such that the 3rd District does not matter.

[ON Progressive]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

what?

evan Jenkins was a former Democrat, and it was 2014. Even though it was 2014, a less strong republican probably only narrowly wins or probably loses even.

 

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

senator roy moore can tell you how much trump approval matters in elections.

Rahall survived 2010 though, and the state (and district) is FAR more Republican than it was in 2014 even.

Also, Alabama exit polls had Trump approval at 48/48 and Roy Moore got about 48% of the vote in the end. Roy Moore was also a uniquely terrible candidate. Ojeda won't be facing anyone remotely as terrible as Roy Moore in all likelihood.

[Oryxslayer]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

Manchin won't even win the district if Jenkins is the nominee lol.

Manchin is losing the 3rd District regardless. His path towards victory is to run up the score in the 1st and 2nd Districts such that the 3rd District does not matter.

Not sure if stupid, trolling, or just Ignorant of the 2016 gov map and 2012 Manchin margins map.

[I’m not Stu]

Would Blankenship actually win WV-03 in the Senate race? I find that hard to believe.

[ON Progressive]

Would Blankenship actually win WV-03 in the Senate race? I find that hard to believe.

Manchin carried all three CDs by big margins in 2012, and he would do better than 2012 if Blakenship is the nominee, so no. Blankenship would lose by over 40% in WV-03.

[YE]

WV isn’t more GOP in a D year in 2018 than 2014 in a GOP wave. Clinton was a terrible candidate for the state and much of the Rust Belt.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

WV isn’t more GOP in a D year in 2018 than 2014 in a GOP wave. Clinton was a terrible candidate for the state and much of the Rust Belt.

It's not just that Clinton was bad. Trump is genuinely very popular in WV (usually polls at 60%+ approval)

[Bidenworth2020]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

what?

evan Jenkins was a former Democrat, and it was 2014. Even though it was 2014, a less strong republican probably only narrowly wins or probably loses even.

 

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

senator roy moore can tell you how much trump approval matters in elections.

Rahall survived 2010 though, and the state (and district) is FAR more Republican than it was in 2014 even.

Also, Alabama exit polls had Trump approval at 48/48 and Roy Moore got about 48% of the vote in the end. Roy Moore was also a uniquely terrible candidate. Ojeda won't be facing anyone remotely as terrible as Roy Moore in all likelihood.

2010 was (in general) a much more favorable year in WV than 2014, and his opponent was a some guy, whereas manchin was high quality

[Joe Republic]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

I'm not sure being in Congress for four decades is actually viewed as a positive by most voters. Like, I'm no fan of Congressional term limits, but that's ridiculous.

Bob Byrd.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

I'm not sure being in Congress for four decades is actually viewed as a positive by most voters. Like, I'm no fan of Congressional term limits, but that's ridiculous.

Bob Byrd.

[McGovernForPrez]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

Manchin won't even win the district if Jenkins is the nominee lol.

Manchin is losing the 3rd District regardless. His path towards victory is to run up the score in the 1st and 2nd Districts such that the 3rd District does not matter.

You clearly have no understanding of the WV political map. WV-3 is easily the most Democratic portion of the state. Manchin won it by the largest margin in 2012 and so did Jim Justice in 2016. The northern part of the states is far more Republican leaning than the southern portion. That's why it's been suggested that Jenkins would put Manchin's seat in play by eating into Manchin's base.

[BlueDogs2020]

Exactly! Besides that, Ojeda is a popular and extremely strong candidate for the district. A retired Army major and state Senator who has fought tirelessly for unions, voted for Sanders in the Democratic primary and Trump in the general election is perfect to attract voters in West Virginia. He is also super anti-establishment and refuses to take corporate PAC money.

[UWS]

Because of coal, notably.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

Rahall was an interesting example of a longserving incumbent who was never particularly personally popular: he was a pretty polarising figure in the district for various reasons...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

Manchin won't even win the district if Jenkins is the nominee lol.

Manchin is losing the 3rd District regardless. His path towards victory is to run up the score in the 1st and 2nd Districts such that the 3rd District does not matter.

WTF? Dude, Manchin is going to win in CD 3 against everyone by a decent margin in GE, except Evan Jenkins. Even then, Evan Jenkins would probably barely scrape by in carrying it. EVEN freaking Natalie Tennant carried the district as she lost the SOS seat in 2016, and McCuskey barely carried it. Whoever says WV 3 is the most GOP because of PVI only has superficial knowledge of the state.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

Manchin won't even win the district if Jenkins is the nominee lol.

Manchin is losing the 3rd District regardless. His path towards victory is to run up the score in the 1st and 2nd Districts such that the 3rd District does not matter.

WTF? Dude, Manchin is going to win in CD 3 against everyone by a decent margin in GE, except Evan Jenkins. Even then, Evan Jenkins would probably barely scrape by in carrying it. EVEN freaking Natalie Tennant carried the district as she lost the SOS seat in 2016, and McCuskey barely carried it. Whoever says WV 3 is the most GOP because of PVI only has superficial knowledge of the state.

Just because someone represents a certain district does not mean that they are always strong in that region. Example: Patrick Murphy losing his district to Rubio in the 2016 Florida Senate election.

Manchin has been a bigger figure in WV politics than Jenkins for a much longer time- thus, voters know more about Manchin than Jenkins in WV-3.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I agree with them here honestly. Why do people on this forum forget a 4 decade entrenched incumbent, Nick Rahall, lost by double digits in this district?

(Fun fact: Ojeda tried to primary him)

But this. Trump is really popular in WV-03. Ojeda needs Manchin coattails to carry him over the line.

Manchin won't even win the district if Jenkins is the nominee lol.

Manchin is losing the 3rd District regardless. His path towards victory is to run up the score in the 1st and 2nd Districts such that the 3rd District does not matter.

WTF? Dude, Manchin is going to win in CD 3 against everyone by a decent margin in GE, except Evan Jenkins. Even then, Evan Jenkins would probably barely scrape by in carrying it. EVEN freaking Natalie Tennant carried the district as she lost the SOS seat in 2016, and McCuskey barely carried it. Whoever says WV 3 is the most GOP because of PVI only has superficial knowledge of the state.

Just because someone represents a certain district does not mean that they are always strong in that region. Example: Patrick Murphy losing his district to Rubio in the 2016 Florida Senate election.

Manchin has been a bigger figure in WV politics than Jenkins for a much longer time- thus, voters know more about Manchin than Jenkins in WV-3.

Either way, Manchin vs Jenkins in WV 3 would be close.