IL-3 Dem Primary: Election Day!

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Lipinski will win, and I'm rooting for him.

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The only reason Democrats tolerated Lipinski was because his district was full of Archie Bunker-like WWC voters who would bolt to the Republicans if a mainstream liberal replaced him on the ballot.
The fact that Trump performed even worse than Mitt effing Romney proves that this is no longer the case.

This is false. The district has a white majority but is incredibly diverse. It has a large, conservative polish population and socially conservative Hispanic population. A democrat would certainly win this district even if they are progressive, but that would not represent the district as well as Congressman Lipinski.

Conservatives are still under the delusion that white Urban ethnics, let alone Hispanics, are socially conservative anymore. There may be a handful of regular Catholic Church attending Polish American voters who are probably the minority of Republicans in the district anyway. But those folks are dying off and being replaced by sons and daughters who oh, even if they still attend regularly, have very different views from the Catholic hierarchy on social issues.

Lipinski's big strength is simple incumbency name recognition and constituent service. People who may not know or care much about his position on abortion or gay rights, and wouldn't like his views at the new about it, still remember him as the guy who helped get that problem with their grandmother's social security check figure it out or a recommendation written for their nephew to West Point.

As somebody who interned in Lipinksi's office this summer, I can tell you firsthand, Lipinski's Congressional District has many socially conservative Polish, Irish, and Greek voters.

Lipinski is an effective Congressman both in constituent services and getting things done on the hill. Passes many amendments, an incredibly strong fighter for STEM education, big on the T&I committee. It's a shame to see the people who lament today's partisan polarization trying to throw out one of Congress' best bipartisan members.

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He helped create the House compromise to fix the ACA and votes against repealing. Whether or not you agree with his abortion stance, he's a pragmatist at heart who wants to get things done, not a right-winger.

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I really don't get why Lipinski fans are wringing their hands over this. If Lipinski is such an amazing fit for the district then he'll win re-election. If he loses, then I guess he wasn't a great fit after all. If you like Lipinski because of his positions on the issues, fine, but don't support him because he fits the stereotype of that particular slice of Chicagoland.

Oh, I don't doubt he will win. I'm just not a fan of Gillibrand's hypocritical political posturing. She used to be a Blue Dog too, after all and evidently didn't have a problem with conservative Dems back then...

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He voted against the tax bill and was part of a press conference opposing it held by the Blue Dogs. So what if he's smiling in a picture with Paul Ryan?

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We have a two party system.  TWO choices for president.  The fact that Hillary/Obama won the district says that out of two bad choices, they choose the lesser evil.  That doesn't mean that the national Democratic party is in touch with the people of IL-3.  Dan L is.  

lmao, you're so convinced that the views of "the people of IL-3" align with your personal politics. Would you vote for Bernie? They did.

It voted for Bernie largely because the 2016 primary in Chicago essentially became a proxy war for the Mayor - Rahm backed Clinton, his Hispanic opponent Chuy Garcia backed Sanders. Hispanics in Chicago ended up breaking pretty strong for Sanders thanks to this endorsement, and the 3rds Democratic Base is heavily Hispanic.

I have been meaning to make a more dedicated post in this thread with maps, and I will soon, but here is the basic point. All the white ethics that people are talking about in Southwest Cook are Republicans now - or at least a majority. The Democratic vote is now increasingly tied to the northeast third of the district and the Chicago arm which combined contain roughly half the vote. So while Lipinski probably represents everyone on both sides of the line fine, he is probably weak in a primary. The problem for dems though is that this district is the weakest of chicago metro Democratic seats. Running a staunch progressive in the General probably isn't the smartest idea.

The white ethnics are still voting Democrat in Oak Lawn, Chicago Ridge, Burbank, and LaGrange if just barely. The thing with this district is that do to population loss it is expanding out into exurban Will County and the eastern fringes of DuPage.

Agreed. In Mt. Greenwood they vote Republican at the top of the ticket, and Canaryville increasingly so as well. However, many of the Polish voters are still D-registered, as are many Greeks.

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Justice Democrats annoys me as a concept because it seeks to foist one platform onto Democrats running in vastly different districts.

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State Sen. Toi Hutchinson (Chicago Heights, Kankanee, Homewood) and State Rep. Theresa Mah (Bridgeport, Pilsen, Back of the Yards) have endorsed Newman.

Wow, polling must look like crap for Lipinski. Good News!

Doubtful. All these endorsers will be embarrassed when Lipinski wins handily.

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I still think he wins. After all, Mark Pera in 2008 put up quite the strong campaign, along with multiple other candidates and Lipinski still prevailed with a majority. NARAL, Democracy for America were behind Pera and Lipinski didn't even raise much that year.

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The Chicago Tribune endorsed Lipinski, as does the Chicago Sun-Times.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-ushouse2-republicans-democrats-congress-20180212-story.html

https://chicago.suntimes.com/opinion/chicago-3rd-congressional-district-democratic-primary-endorsement-2018-illinois-primary/

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Lipinski just got two first responder union endorsements, which is not shocking but definitely helps him among his base in the outlying parts of Chicago.

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I was at one point confident, but now I'm kinda concerned.

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Crosstabs. Newman leads amongst whites and 45-64 category, Lipinski leads in rest.

https://patch.com/illinois/oaklawn/lipinski-newman-statistical-dead-heat-democratic-primary

Big Lipinski lead among Hispanic voters kinda contradicts the narrative that the Hispanic population is opposed to him.

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The texts about Newman being a holocaust denier should be repudiated ASAP by both the campaign and No Labels, but they don't strike me as a coordinated campaign effort so much as an idiotic volunteer that needs to be fired immediately.

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Preckwinkle is corrupt as heck and I hope Fioretti defeats her.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/fioretti-says-preckwinkle-covered-up-incident-involving-county-issued-suv/

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Okay, so one text (the origins of which literally nobody knows) is suddenly representative of the Lipinski campaign? There's absolutely zero proof tying that to the campaign. Newman's folks can complain about "dirty politics" if they're going to lie about Lipinski.

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National Review endorsed a crossover pro-life vote. SBA really should be targeting indies and R's.

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Change Research is a terrible polling firm with a track record of being way off. The only other poll we've seen of IL-03 was PPP showing Lipinski up 3 and the wording of the question wasn't even released...

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Congratulations to Congressman Lipinski for a well-earned victory!!!