IL-3 Dem Primary: Election Day!

[Badger]

I for one am very proud of Congressman Lipinski for his support of the unborn. He is also a dogged advocate for his constituents, an important voice regarding transportation issues, and a true freedom fighter. He deserves to have the seat for as long as he wants it.

He literally only has the seat because his dad pulled a trick to give it to him. He's a dynastic fool.

Yes. Ideology aside I have always held Lipinski in extremely low regard because of this. He is a machine Pol through-and-through

[Badger]

The only reason Democrats tolerated Lipinski was because his district was full of Archie Bunker-like WWC voters who would bolt to the Republicans if a mainstream liberal replaced him on the ballot.
The fact that Trump performed even worse than Mitt effing Romney proves that this is no longer the case.

This is false. The district has a white majority but is incredibly diverse. It has a large, conservative polish population and socially conservative Hispanic population. A democrat would certainly win this district even if they are progressive, but that would not represent the district as well as Congressman Lipinski.

Conservatives are still under the delusion that white Urban ethnics, let alone Hispanics, are socially conservative anymore. There may be a handful of regular Catholic Church attending Polish American voters who are probably the minority of Republicans in the district anyway. But those folks are dying off and being replaced by sons and daughters who oh, even if they still attend regularly, have very different views from the Catholic hierarchy on social issues.

Lipinski's big strength is simple incumbency name recognition and constituent service. People who may not know or care much about his position on abortion or gay rights, and wouldn't like his views at the new about it, still remember him as the guy who helped get that problem with their grandmother's social security check figure it out or a recommendation written for their nephew to West Point.

[Badger]

Bernie is hinting at a Marie Newman endorsement

https://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/bernie-sanders-on-chuy-garcia-marie-newman-and-2020/

The tidbit most of interest in that article is the revelation that he's going to be meeting with pretty much every politically important labor union in America. Between that and his blatant admission that he's thinking about running again, I really have no idea how some people doubt he's entering the 2020 race.

If he does endorse Newman, it would be pretty funny is the only Bernie-backed primary challenger to successfully win versus an incumbent beat one of the few Congresspeople who actually supported him in 2016.

Anyway, I'm keeping my hopes up and there are certainly signs that Lipinski's time is running out (e.g. his sudden collapse in institutional support from the CTU, etc.), but I do believe that he's the favorite in this race until proven otherwise.

Lipinski backed Bernie?

[Badger]

Brutal tweet from Newman in response to Politico article title "Last conservative Democrat in Chicago fights for his life."

Newman: "He's not fighting for his life; he's fighting for a job he never earned." Absolutely crucifying for anyone familiar with the way Lipinski got his current job (though in fairness being re-elected for over a decade since then rather mitigates matters).

[Badger]

Damn! Just read Lipinski didn't endorse Obama for re-election in 2012. Whether one agrees with that or not, how in hell has he survived since then?

[Badger]

I can't wait for the machine to crush this progressive fantasy.  We don't need privileged North Side Liberals telling us how to vote.

Nothing more privileged than having daddy gift you a seat in Congress.

DAY-yam!

[Badger]

Remember when the democrats tried to claim they were a "centrist" party? Good times

 Dan Lipinski is decidedly to the right of Center on more than a few issues, and far-right of center for the Democratic party on said issues. These include opposition to Obamacare and Obama himself, not just social issues.

Also, the Illinois 3rd District is hardly a Centrist District.

[Badger]

There are stil 2 more weeks left of campaigning, and only Newman has room to grow. I think Lipinski is a goner.

This. The fact that Lipinski is up to is far far less important the statistic than the fact he's only at 43% overall as an incumbent. Unless this poison outlier it is really hard to see Lipinski carrying off more than a fraction let alone a near majority, of the 16% or so undecided voters.

So yeah, either this poll is an outlier, Newman gets a major league gaff or scandal, or Lipinski is toast.

[Badger]

The fact that he cosponsored the so-called “First Amendment Defense Act” is unforgivable. Lipinski should have been gone a long time ago. If he survives this year, then the DNC needs to put in however much money it takes to get rid of him in 2020.

Since I'm too lazy to Google it, what is the first amendment Defense Act?

[Badger]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-marie-newman-felon-dan-lipinski-congress-20180305-story.html

Wow.  Not nice, not ethical.

She invested in a business and withdrew once she found out about the guy’s dubious background. Nothing but a desperate smear by Lipinski and his crew.

And of course that right-wing rag Tribune is running with it.

Yeah, comparing the screaming headline to the actual facts of the situation blandly discuss their end, this is Fox level disingenuous

[Badger]

For all the right- Winger's lamenting Democrats engaging in a so-called Purity Purge of Lipinski, consider this. Take an AR + 6 District like Steven teague's or Justin Amash instead of A+ 6D District like lipinski's. Now imagine the Republican incumbent has a voting record that is pro Obamacare, Pro DREAM Act, pro-gay marriage even before became a fait accompli by the Supreme Court, and resolutely aggressively pro-choice. And they even refused to endorse Romney over Obama in 2012.

Go on and tell us because they are anywhere from right-of-center to mainstream conservative on economics that you would oppose a staunch conservative primary Challenger because you opposed Purity purges by either major party.

Yeah, I didn't think so either. The bottom line is conservatives are upset because they're losing a conservative vote on multiple issues out of this primary. Yet no one I think would hold my own party to the same standards of moderation. The fact is, it's unlikely that such a Republican incumbent as I described would ever exist or be elected in the first place in an r + 6 District. Though maybe if they inherited the seat from their father the same way Lipinski did, maybe.

[Badger]

For all the right- Winger's lamenting Democrats engaging in a so-called Purity Purge of Lipinski, consider this. Take an AR + 6 District like Steven teague's or Justin Amash instead of A+ 6D District like lipinski's. Now imagine the Republican incumbent has a voting record that is pro Obamacare, Pro DREAM Act, pro-gay marriage even before became a fait accompli by the Supreme Court, and resolutely aggressively pro-choice. And they even refused to endorse Romney over Obama in 2012.

Go on and tell us because they are anywhere from right-of-center to mainstream conservative on economics that you would oppose a staunch conservative primary Challenger because you opposed Purity purges by either major party.

Yeah, I didn't think so either. The bottom line is conservatives are upset because they're losing a conservative vote on multiple issues out of this primary. Yet no one I think would hold my own party to the same standards of moderation. The fact is, it's unlikely that such a Republican incumbent as I described would ever exist or be elected in the first place in an r + 6 District. Though maybe if they inherited the seat from their father the same way Lipinski did, maybe.

"Right-wingers"? It's interesting that you would lump in people like Bagel23 (moderate Democrat) and GreenLine (independent), as well as an independent such as myself, under such a category. The argument throughout, which I have made, is that I think polarization would be less if there was room for ideological diversity within each party, and room for compromise and bipartisanship on more issues. The route that you're suggesting would eventually eliminate people like Manchin and Collins, leaving us with only politicians with aggressively partisan agendas, unwilling to work across party lines for the better good of the country.

My quote was addressed to right-wingers like that conservative guy who rather hypocritically upgrades the Democrats for their purity Purge, but would unquestionably vote and probably campaign for right-wing primary Challenger against a moderate to Liberal Republican an r + 6 District. It was not addressed to all people who think that Lipinski is being unfairly targeted.

Nevertheless, would anyone really truly believe that in a district is conservative is Justin Amash or Harry Teague that had a ardently pro-choice, pro-gay-rights, Pro DREAM Act, Pro Obamacare member of Congress who didn't endorse Romney over Obama in 2012 wouldn't be dead meat? Please. People across the Spectrum would be shrugging their shoulders and wondering what took so long.

[Badger]

Here come the buzzwords about 'San Francisco values'....

As a gay person, I'm perfectly happy for the Democratic Party primary voters to reduce the ideological diversity of the party, through primaries to get rid of people who don't support LGBT rights. Some times parties need to cut of the deadwood.

IL-03 is an objectively different area than San Francisco. San Francisco is a heavily gentrified tech hub of sorts, while IL-03 is mostly declining labor-Democratic more socially-moderate suburbia.
Newman is running a campaign that pretty much seems to imply SF and IL-03 are the same, which is ridiculous. But she might still win.

I imagine IL-03 has gay people. Do you think they should support Lipinski?

This is a profoundly silly statement. It really doesn't take much to understand it being pro-choice and pro-gay rights has long been the middle of the Democratic Party for a couple decades now, and most voters in this districts are Democrats. It's a Suburban district with a reasonably high percentage of college grads. Everyone's trying to portray it as Archie Bunker land. A disproportionate share of the working class Democratic voters in this District today are Hispanics whom, contrary to conservative mythology, are actually fairly Progressive on abortion rights and gay marriage ( outside of the Evangel community of course), and needless to say they are really pro-obama and Obamacare, and really really really really really Pro DREAM Act. His opposition there is like a democrat in a 20% African American District voting against reauthorization of the Civil Rights Act. Would anyone still be calling an aggressive primary challenge to that person a purity Purge?

I would suggest that lipinski's supporters are confusing this district with West Virginia far more than Newman's are confusing it with San Francisco.

EDIT: I meant the statement above all is Wells was the silly one, in case there's any confusion. I hit reply to the wrong post.

[Badger]

Looks like Lipinski took the seat for granted which he got from his daddy. Going to be a tough few weeks for him.

Yeah in case it sounds like I'ma Newman hack, Lipinski is to start the opposite as a socially conservative economically liberal old school pork barrel anti DREAM Act and anti-obamacare type that is literally the mirror image of me ideologically, other than I'm one of the last Republicans who don't consider unions organized crime thugs or the devil. But what is always really got to me is the utterly Shady inside politics manner in which he was gifted his seat by his daddy. Yes, he is run for several terms on his own in the district since then, but that just utterly left me appalled.

[Badger]

Not a Lipinski fan, but Lord. All these posts saying people should abstain voting between a socially conservative economically moderate to Liberal Democrat versus a literal neo-Nazi?!?

[Badger]

I may be wrong, but I expect Lipinski to take this as a sign that he needs to start/continue moving to the left on at least a few issues (healthcare, DREAMERS, min. wage, other economic stuff). Of course it likely won't be enough to satisfy most of the Newman supporters here, but it may be enough to keep his constituents happy in 2020 and quash enough interest in another challenge so soon.

You are not wrong. Incidentally, I recently learned he's made statements that he has changed his position, or at least "modified" it regarding gay marriage. He'll never change on abortion of course, but perhaps he can take a backseat role on being co-sponsor on every major pro-life bill out there.