Virginia Bench

[SloopJB3]

So now that the 2017 Virginia elections are mostly behind us, what do folks think the future holds for Virginia politics?

Who can Republicans run for Governor in 2021? Barbara Comstock? Scott Taylor? Rob Wittman? Will Justin Fairfax or Mark Herring run for the Democrats? What does Levar Stoney's future hold?

Debra Rodman and Schuyler VanValkenburg both were elected to the House of Delegates in Dave Brat's congressional district. Could one of them challenge him down the road?

Kelly Fowler and Cheryl Turpin were elected to the House of Delegates in Scott Taylor's congressional district. Could they run against him one day?

What are Danica Roem's aspirations? Seems like she's boxed out because of Jeremy McPike in the State Senate and Rob Wittman's congressional seat isn't going blue anytime soon.

It looks like Virginia Democrats suddenly have a bench and Republicans have been totally decimated. Whatever happens, Virginia politics sure is interesting.

[Dr. MB]

Fairfax and Herring will both run, but in separate years.

[Virginiá]

For Republicans, I think it depends who loses in 2018 and 2019. Let's keep in mind here that for as beaten down as Virginia Republicans are right now, it can and likely will still get worse. They could lose 1 - 2 more House seats in 2018, and they will probably lose the legislature in 2019.

That being said, I could see Bryce Reeves running again for LtGov or Governor. His Senate seat is also somewhat at risk in 2019.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Corey Stewart will run for Senate in 2018. He will not win (and I can't speculate this early on how he will do in the primaries -- I think that all depends on how the national Trump/Bannon vs. Establishment landscape looks next June), but depending on how well he does he may use that to launch a campaign in 2021.

I don't think Roem will try to run for any statewide office, but I could be wrong. She ran a campaign on incredibly local issues (mainly transportation). I could see her trying to run for State Senate when the seat opens up but based on her campaigning style, and the way she's handled her celebrity makes me think she is interested in actually solving local issues rather than accruing more political capitol. On the other hand, she definitely has the name recognition to seek state-wide office, and having a track record of practically solving suburban/exurban issues (i.e., Manassas) is a great way to ingratiate yourself towards Democrats in Northern Virginia. Plus it would be interesting to see if Republicans try to attack her or run an oppo campaign on her as a trans-woman; I suspect they will, but they may be hesitant to be labeled as bigots the way they obviously lost big on MS-13 attacks this year.

edit: also don't count out Rob Wittman. I think Wittman may fall in as bland Republican establishment favorite now that Gillespie has no future

[Türkisblau]

I think Scott Taylor will stay in his seat until he runs for something else - and he already has an opponent in Dave Belote. Maybe Cheryl Turpin or someone else challenges him in 2020? The Dem bench in Hampton Roads is really weak in general.

[KingSweden]

I think Scott Taylor will stay in his seat until he runs for something else - and he already has an opponent in Dave Belote. Maybe Cheryl Turpin or someone else challenges him in 2020? The Dem bench in Hampton Roads is really weak in general.

Belote dropped out of that race

[Türkisblau]

I think Scott Taylor will stay in his seat until he runs for something else - and he already has an opponent in Dave Belote. Maybe Cheryl Turpin or someone else challenges him in 2020? The Dem bench in Hampton Roads is really weak in general.

Belote dropped out of that race

Ah, I never even noticed lol.

[Panhandle Progressive]

I think Scott Taylor will stay in his seat until he runs for something else - and he already has an opponent in Dave Belote. Maybe Cheryl Turpin or someone else challenges him in 2020? The Dem bench in Hampton Roads is really weak in general.

The bench shouldn't be weak after this cycle. Taylor is vulnerable in CD2 since Northam won it. If we can hold the four CDs we have now and win the 10th (where Comstock is) and the 2nd then Dems will have a 6-5 majority for House seats. Dems should be focusing these two CDs to take back the majority of seats next fall.



https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2017-governor-results-congress-district-1/

[Skill and Chance]

I think Herring wants a senate seat and is happy holding down AG until one opens up.  IMO Fairfax runs for GOV in 2021 and he wins, but it will be closer, particularly if there is a Democratic president then.  Given the situation in VA-10, Comstock probably decides she might as well challenge Kaine.  Taylor probably waits until at least 2021 to run for something else, unless Warner retires and there is an open Senate seat in 2020.

There's also Perriello hanging out there looking for another opportunity.  He won't get back into the House unless Dems control the next redistricting, but I could certainly see him running for the next open Senate seat.

As for Virginia Beach, it has always been a bit more Dem in state level races than in federal ones and Northam was from a neighboring area, so I wouldn't get too carried away about the 2018/20 implications.  Kaine won VA Beach in 2005 while Obama lost it in 2008.  Chesterfield, however, tends to be more Dem in federal races, so I wouldn't be surprised if Kaine and Trump's next opponent win it by several points.

[BuckeyeNut]

I think Herring wants a senate seat and is happy holding down AG until one opens up.  IMO Fairfax runs for GOV in 2021 and he wins, but it will be closer, particularly if there is a Democratic president then.  Given the situation in VA-10, Comstock probably decides she might as well challenge Kaine.  Taylor probably waits until at least 2021 to run for something else, unless Warner retires and there is an open Senate seat in 2020.

There's also Perriello hanging out there looking for another opportunity.  He won't get back into the House unless Dems control the next redistricting, but I could certainly see him running for the next open Senate seat.

As for Virginia Beach, it has always been a bit more Dem in state level races than in federal ones and Northam was from a neighboring area, so I wouldn't get too carried away about the 2018/20 implications.  Kaine won VA Beach in 2005 while Obama lost it in 2008.  Chesterfield, however, tends to be more Dem in federal races, so I wouldn't be surprised if Kaine and Trump's next opponent win it by several points.

I am sad to say Periello is likely done. After his loss in '10, and asked if he'd seek office again, he was a "never say never" guy. After his loss earlier this year, he was just about slammed the door on ever running again. Now, granted, that might not mean much. But the difference in attitude is noteworthy.

[136or142]

For Virginia 2, Elaine Luria (D) - Retired Navy Commander & Businesswoman jumped into the race right after Belote dropped out.

[Ye We Can]

I still think Taylor will be fine in 2018-he got 60 the first time around and while that was against a lackluster opponent he seems to be pretty good at distancing himself from Trump. Not to mention the moderate hero persona and the donor money.

It'll be a different story if Dems draw him out, though. I imagine that makes him run statewide at some point.