AL-Gravis/Big League: DOUG +5

[The Other Castro]

Doug Jones - 47%
Roy Moore - 42%
Undecided - 11%

7 point swing towards Jones from their previous poll.

Moore favorability: 42-49 (-5)
Jones favorability: 45-41 (+4)
Trump job approval: 53-43 (+10)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://bigleaguepolitics.com/big-league-gravis-alabama-poll-jones-takes-47-42-lead-moore/


(((Harry Enten)))‏ @ForecasterEnten 5 minutes ago
We now have two pollsters who went into the field immediately following the Moore allegations and then again ~5-7 days after it. Both show that Moore has dropped even further than after an initial drop.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/931606765833244672

[Dr. Arch]

Wow This is really happening.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Curse you Gravis for your junk polls getting my hopes up

[heatcharger]

I applaud the title change. Now we just need the gold standard Quinnipiac poll to show DOUG up big, and this thing is over.

[Virginiá]

To be fair to Gravis, their Virginia polls were not too bad. Spot on in 2016 and undershot Northam by almost 4 points, although that was still more accurate than most polls in the closing days.

Although I guess the broken clock is even right twice a day thing still applies here.

edit: I forgot to add that regardless of Gravis itself, it does help further confirm movement towards Jones from where ever the race currently stands.

[The Other Castro]

To be fair to Gravis, their Virginia polls were not too bad. Spot on in 2016 and undershot Northam by almost 4 points, although that was still more accurate than most polls in the closing days.

Although I guess the broken clock is even right twice a day thing still applies here.

I think I had seen something about them changing their methodology, though don't quote me on that. Their NJ polls were also very close to the end result.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[The Other Castro]

This poll is actually more useful than just a standard post-scandal poll, because this is Gravis' 2nd post-scandal poll. The immediate reaction showed M+2, while this solidified reaction shows J+5, which supports the Akin theory that the lowest point for Moore isn't in the immediate aftermath, but over a longer period of time as the scandal develops.

[KingSweden]

*jizzes everywh-*

Oh wait it’s Gravis nvm

Though they do show the same trend as the others

[Skye]

I mean, it's Gravis, but still. Wow.

[NOVA Green]

This might just well be a case of Gravis "Poll herding" realizing their street cred has been lacking for awhile because of extremely inaccurate polling techniques and methodology.

But even it that were to be the case, let's face it.... the fundamental challenge with polling in 'Bama for this election is trying to weigh the numbers to determine what the electorate will look like in December, under one of the most unusual US Senate elections in over a decade, in a solidly Republican State no less....

I think we all learned a tons about polling methodologies in 2016 in particular, especially when there are potentially large subsets of the electorate that do not respond to normal polling patterns using the traditional methods.

Still, it's a data point, throw it into the hopper, and keep looking at the trend lines closely.

[President Johnson]

Freedom poll. Hopefully that lasts till election day.

[libertpaulian]

Given that Alabama hasn't had a competitive statewide race in 20 years, it's pretty difficult to poll the state.  However, this is the fifth consecutive DOUG poll.  Good news!

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It's looking like this is more of an Akin situation than a  Trump or Gianforte type situation.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's looking like this is more of an Akin situation than a  Trump or Gianforte type situation.

Why is Gianaforte even brought into conversation? The guy assaulted the reporter one day before the election. I'm pretty sure that a substantial amount of voters hadn't even heard of the incident when they went to the polls.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

It's looking like this is more of an Akin situation than a  Trump or Gianforte type situation.

Why is Gianaforte even brought into conversation? The guy assaulted the reporter one day before the election. I'm pretty sure that a substantial amount of voters hadn't even heard of the incident when they went to the polls.

Just because he had a major scandal, I guess.

[Xing]

Jones might very well be ahead now, though even that's debatable, since I'm guessing Moore's numbers are being depressed due to shame among his supporters. In three weeks, though? I bet a lot of voters will conveniently "forget" about what Moore did, because the fact that Jones has a (D) next to his name is a more pressing matter.

[Cactus Jack]

Jones might very well be ahead now, though even that's debatable, since I'm guessing Moore's numbers are being depressed due to shame among his supporters. In three weeks, though? I bet a lot of voters will conveniently "forget" about what Moore did, because the fact that Jones has a (D) next to his name is a more pressing matter.

Scandals like these don't go away. Don't forget that Jones has complete control of Alabama airwaves right now, because even pre-allegations Roy Moore was a blithering idiot.

[Young Conservative]

Be wary. I definitely believe there is a hidden Moore vote.

[Pericles]

Be wary. I definitely believe there is a hidden Moore vote.

There was no hidden Trump vote.

[Devout Centrist]

Jones might very well be ahead now, though even that's debatable, since I'm guessing Moore's numbers are being depressed due to shame among his supporters. In three weeks, though? I bet a lot of voters will conveniently "forget" about what Moore did, because the fact that Jones has a (D) next to his name is a more pressing matter.

Isn't that what people said in the immediate aftermath? It's been almost three weeks since then!

[junior chįmp]

Be wary. I definitely believe there is a hidden Moore vote.

Moore barely won in 2012 because women voted against him. I can only imagine how much more lopsided the vote is gonna be now

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Jones might very well be ahead now, though even that's debatable, since I'm guessing Moore's numbers are being depressed due to shame among his supporters. In three weeks, though? I bet a lot of voters will conveniently "forget" about what Moore did, because the fact that Jones has a (D) next to his name is a more pressing matter.

Isn't that what people said in the immediate aftermath? It's been almost three weeks since then!

Yeah, I see no indication that Moore has recovered at all since the immediate aftermath of the allegations being revealed.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Be wary. I definitely believe there is a hidden Moore vote.

There was no hidden Trump vote.

[Maxwell]

THUGGISH DOUGISH JONES