How would Kasich have performed in New England?
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  How would Kasich have performed in New England?
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Author Topic: How would Kasich have performed in New England?  (Read 812 times)
DPKdebator
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« on: November 17, 2017, 04:06:23 PM »

Trump's 2016 performance in New England was the best since George Bush in 2000, winning a total of 19 counties (vs. 15 for Bush). Kasich was the second-best performing Republican in all of New England sans Maine... so how would he have done in the region during the general election (in terms of states/county level)?
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Solid4096
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2017, 04:15:41 PM »

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland
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TexArkana
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« Reply #2 on: November 17, 2017, 04:17:46 PM »

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland
I think Plymouth, MA would be a toss-up if Kasich had been the nominee. he could've won it.
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #3 on: November 17, 2017, 04:55:23 PM »

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland
I think Plymouth, MA would be a toss-up if Kasich had been the nominee. he could've won it.

Kasich probably would've held on to the rich South Shore towns that went for Romney but rejected Trump by huge margins, and it's likely he'd do better in them as well, which definitely would've been enough to win the 10,000 votes needed to flip it.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2017, 04:58:45 PM »

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland
I think Plymouth, MA would be a toss-up if Kasich had been the nominee. he could've won it.

Kasich probably would've held on to the rich South Shore towns that went for Romney but rejected Trump by huge margins, and it's likely he'd do better in them as well, which definitely would've been enough to win the 10,000 votes needed to flip it.
I'm thinking that, on average, Kasich would have done about 10% better than Trump in the Northeast, which is enough to flip quite a few counties but only 2 states (Maine and New Hampshire).
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Computer89
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2017, 05:53:34 PM »

These are the states I think he wins from the North East:

New Hampshire
Maine



 
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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2017, 07:47:39 PM »
« Edited: November 17, 2017, 07:49:27 PM by AtorBoltox »

Poorly. Kasich was a very bad candidate who only managed to win his home state in the primaries
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2017, 07:48:59 PM »

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland
I think Plymouth, MA would be a toss-up if Kasich had been the nominee. he could've won it.

Kasich probably would've held on to the rich South Shore towns that went for Romney but rejected Trump by huge margins, and it's likely he'd do better in them as well, which definitely would've been enough to win the 10,000 votes needed to flip it.
I'm thinking that, on average, Kasich would have done about 10% better than Trump in the Northeast, which is enough to flip quite a few counties but only 2 states (Maine and New Hampshire).

This might be a little generous, but an improvement like that would probably look like this:
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2017, 07:04:39 AM »

He wins Maine outright, carries New Hampshire, and polls better than any Republican since Reagan in 1984 in Rhode Island.
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TexArkana
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2017, 12:41:56 PM »

Would have won Maine and New Hampshire, and taken the following counties (as well as all the counties that Trump won):

Maine:
Waldo
Lincoln
York

New Hampshire:
Merrimack

Vermont:
Orleans
Franklin
Rutland

Connecticut:
Tolland
I think Plymouth, MA would be a toss-up if Kasich had been the nominee. he could've won it.

Kasich probably would've held on to the rich South Shore towns that went for Romney but rejected Trump by huge margins, and it's likely he'd do better in them as well, which definitely would've been enough to win the 10,000 votes needed to flip it.
I'm thinking that, on average, Kasich would have done about 10% better than Trump in the Northeast, which is enough to flip quite a few counties but only 2 states (Maine and New Hampshire).

This might be a little generous, but an improvement like that would probably look like this:

You have Kasich doing a bit too well in Massachusetts and Rhode Island, but otherwise this is about what I'd expect from him. 
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bagelman
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« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2017, 07:39:45 PM »

I'd expect him to win NH, and be competitive in Maine.
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« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2017, 12:08:59 PM »

Knowing voters in CT are more moderate and trending towards the traditional GOP, I’d expect Kasich to carry Maine and New Hampshire, and make a large dent in Connecticut and Rhode Island
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2017, 12:17:06 PM »

These are the states I think he wins from the North East:

New Hampshire
Maine



 
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2017, 03:17:46 PM »

New Hampshire is a obvious state he would win. He would lose some ground in the Upstate of Maine due to lack of a Trump-like appeal and may still win the county's but by underwealming margins. This means he needs to do much better then Trump downstate to win which I think he could very possibly do. His path here is more early Bush and Pre-Bush attempts is anything (I.E. due very well in the suburban and coastal county's while holding the rest of the county's minus very democratic voting ones like Portland by small margins to win in the end). For the rest of New England, the only areas I see him doing much better in are Massachusetts and Connecticut among suburban voters and moderates. In Connecticut the more moderate Republican Party members there could back him more easier and could only lose by around 10%. Same thing in Massachusetts. Areas like Plymouth are areas I see him doing much better in and he could win some county's in this areas. I doubt he could win county's like Worcester but it would still be closer under Kaskch. Finally Rhode Island. Like in Maine, there is a large element in the state that was more respective to Trumps populism then the average moderate republicanism. Under Kasich I see him losing more in these areas though still possibly winning in those towns. However I do see he will do better in the coastal towns and wealthier coastal city's on the Ocean and in the Sound. I think this will even if out and he would do about the same as Trump abeit a little better. 
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