https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/2017-governor-results-senate-district-1/Just thought I'd make a preview of what the race that might determine 2020 redistricting in VA will look like two years from now. The crudely numbered map above showing the 2017 gov results by senate districts.
A comparison of 2016 to 2017 shows Clinton winning 22 seats compared to Northam winning 24. In both cases there was a seat won by Republicans by less than 1% (SD-7 in 2016, SD-17 in 2017).
Currently Republicans have incumbents in 3 seats won by Clinton, and 5 won by Northam. Democrats hold no seats won by Trump or Gillespie. The best outcome for Republicans in 2019 is probably to hold the line with the seats they have now and perhaps look into SD-21 (see below).
The Democrat's ceiling is probably around 25 seats. Without any doubt Republicans will mostly be on defense going into this election.
Here's a look at what are probably going to be the competitive races in 2019, all but one held by Republicans:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD-7 (Virginia Beach, Norfolk)
2016: 46.63% Clinton - 47.15% Trump (0.52% Trump win)
2017: 53.6% Northam - 45.1% Gillespie (8.5% Northam win)
Incumbent: Frank Wagner (R)
Frank Wagner has been in the Senate since 2001, and ran in the 2017 GOP primary for governor, losing to Corey Stewart and Ed Gillespie. It's been reported Ralph Northam is already proding Wagner for a state secretary position, which would set off a special election that might determine control of the state senate.
This district should be expected to be heavily fought over in 2019 by both parties, or maybe sooner if Wagner leaves for higher office. Tossup.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD-8 (Virginia Beach)
2016: 42.39% Clinton - 51.25% Trump (8.86% Trump)
2017: 49.8% Northam - 495 Gillespie (0.8% Northam)
Incumbent: Bill DeSteph (R)
Not the greatest prospects here for dems, but worth mentioning. Virginia beach has seen movement toward the Democrats, and DeSteph is a first term State Senator, so there is the possibility in a wave of flipping this seat.
There's still a heavy military presence in this district, and DeSteph is a Navy veteran, so probably getting another D veteran to run against him would be the best approach here in 2019. Somewhere between Lean or Likely R if I had to guess, not much else to say.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD-10 (Richmond Suburbs/Chesterfield, Powhatan)
2016: 53.16% Clinton - 40.54% Trump (12.62% Clinton)
2017: 57.7% Northam - 41% Gillespie (16.7% Northam)
Incumbent: Glen Sturtevant (R)
This is
THE seat for VA Dems to flip in 2019. In fact it's the only R held Senate district in the state where both Clinton and Northam won by double digits. On top of that, Sturtevant is only a first term Senator without much of a background who only won this seat in 2015 by about 2.66%.
Every possible indicator is pointing to this being the prime pickup opportunity the Dems need to flip control of the chamber in two years. The Richmond suburbs have gotten much more friendly to Democrats in the last decade, and Clinton improved heavily in this district from Obama's performance in 2012.
Even in a good year for Republicans this seat will be very difficult to hold. I would call this Likely D right now.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD-12 (Northwest Henrico/Hanover)
2016: 47.51% Clinton - 45.9% Trump (1.61% Clinton)
2017: 51.5% Northam - 47.2% Gillespie (4.3% Northam)
Incumbent: Siobhan Dunnavant (R)
Another area of Richmond trending to the Democrats, SD-12 has another first term R Senator. The district was heavily contested in the GOP primary in 2015, but the Democrats fell very short in the 2015 general election here, probably due to being more focused on SD-10. Looking at the statewide performance of candidates here, it's likely the Democrats will look to this district for an opportunity to expand their margins. Tossup.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD-13 (Loudon, parts of Prince William)
2016: 50.41% Clinton - 43.9% Trump (6.51% Clinton)
2017: 55.2% Northam - 43.7% Gillespie (11.5% Northam)
Incumbent: Dick Black (R)
SD-13 makes up a good portion of Loudon County, where Northam really made huge improvements from McAuliffe. Here it's not really a matter of if Democrats win, but when. After redistricting this seat will most likely end up getting sucked more into NoVA and become out of reach for Republicans, so 2019 is most likely Black's last shot.
Black has been in the Senate since 2011 and serving in the VA leg. since 1998. He does have military history, but at the same time has taken some REALLY unpopular positions, including trying to block Medicaid expansion and being very Anti-LGBT. He's probably too conservative for this district the same way Bob Marshall was in the HoD. I really think an effective campaign in what has become a rather liberal district will be enough to take him down. Lean D.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD-17 (Parts of AlbeMarle, Spotsylvania, rural northern VA)
2016: 43.98% Clinton - 50.74% Trump (6.76% Trump)
2017: 49.1% Northam - 49.7% Gillespie (0.6% Gillespie)
Incumbent: Bryce Reeves (R)
The only competitive seat won by both Trump and Gillespie, SD-17 will probably be among the last of the competitive districts to flip of the R held seats. This area hasn't seen the D Trend seen in the other districts, and Reeves is reasonably popular, winning in 2015 with 62.09% of the vote. There is an outside chance of Northam giving Reeves a Secretary position, which would open up possibilities.
The Democrats will certainly want to find a good recruit here and invest in this race in case 2019 is a good year for them. This will be a "pad the margin" seat. Lean or Likely R.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD-21 (Blacksburg, City of Roanoke)
2016: 49.8% Clinton - 43.64% Trump (6.14% Clinton)
2017: 55.8% Northam - 42.6% Trump (13.3% Northam)
Incumbent: John S Edwards (D)
The only D held seat that's listed here. It is the closest Gillespie came to winning a Democrat held seat, even though he lost by double digits. There was an assumption this seat might trend R like the rest of SW VA, but it has more or less held steady ever since it was drawn in 2011. The City of Roanoke did trend R from 2012 to 2016 but Northam made up the lost and then some. Blacksburg, dominated by VA Tech, has just trended more and more D over the last 6 years.
The real reason this seat is listed is John S Edwards, who's been in office since 1996, is turning 75 next year and might seek retirement. If the Democrats are going to face a competitive race in any of their turf in two years, it would be if this becomes an open seat. Solid D with Edwards, Lean D as open seat.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Other seats worth mentioning in the case of a wave election:
SD-6 (D) Likely D
SD-11 (R) Likely R (first term Senator)
SD-14 (R) Likely R
SD-28 (R) Likely R
I might bring this thread up again in the Spring of 2019 to see where things stand.
