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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #25 on: November 23, 2017, 10:55:38 AM »
« edited: November 23, 2017, 08:33:27 PM by Jolly Democrat »

Dawn of the Pence Administration


On March 3, 2019, Vice President Mike Pence took the oath of office as President of the United States. During a brief ceremony, the President announced that he would seek to undo the gridlock in Washington and would meet with House Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer to seek a compromise on issues regarding trade, immigration, and healthcare. Pence, referencing his predecessor's issues with Russian electoral interference, said that he would also work with Congress to seek greater protections of the electoral process in the United States.

Pence was heavily criticized for issuing a pardon for former President Trump, however despite that, his approval ratings were already profoundly better than his predecessor's were when he took office.

Averaged approval ratings of President Mike Pence
Approve - 37%
Disapprove - 40%
Uncertain - 23%

Privately, Pence was aiming to end most of "Trumpism" and running the White House as a traditional conservative, somewhat similar to the Presidency of George W. Bush. However, Pence knew he'd have to keep much of Trump's base to have a shot at winning the upcoming presidential election. To do so, Pence's main objective would be to keep former President Trump's views on trade in his agenda. However, many of the alt-right were refusing to follow along with President Pence.

Alex Jones, a far-right conspiracy theorist who was a staunch supporter of President Trump, repeatedly stated that the United States was undergoing a "globalist coup" and that Pence would serve as a "puppet of George Soros and the elite." Steve Bannon, a former Trump advisor, stated that Pence, Barrasso, and Ryan threatened Trump to vacate the presidency and called President Pence an "establishment snake."

Establishment and moderate Republicans said that they were optimistic about the Pence Presidency. Former Ohio Governor John Kasich said "[Pence] is a very competent and smart individual, and I know he'll do a good job as President." In the Senate, Senator and 2008 presidential nominee John McCain said he was grateful for Trump's departure and Pence's arrival in the White House.

But how well would President Pence perform in the next two years? Could he distance himself from the disasters of his predecessor? Or would former President Trump loom over the new president and crash his administration?
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« Reply #26 on: November 23, 2017, 12:30:38 PM »

A 40-42 approval for the extreme-rightist vice president of the recently-resigned President who was polling in his 20s..
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #27 on: November 23, 2017, 12:43:46 PM »

A 40-42 approval for the extreme-rightist vice president of the recently-resigned President who was polling in his 20s..
I might tweak it a bit, but Pence is much more favorable than Trump in 2018-19.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #28 on: November 24, 2017, 11:02:55 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2017, 11:10:25 PM by Jolly Democrat »

Mike Pence's First Year in Office



President Pence's first year in office would determine if he could bring himself to win reelection in 2020, but it would be an uphill fight for the President. Donald Trump had heavily damaged the Republican Party nationwide, and being Trump's right hand man for two years, it would be hard for Pence to distance himself from the failed Trump Administration.

In May, Pence announced that he would appoint former Governor Brian Sandoval as his Vice President, and on May 24, 2019, Brian Sandoval was sworn in as the 49th Vice President of the United States. Pundits believed that Pence was picking Sandoval to help with minority voters, swing voters, and the “never Trump” Republicans, who would all be very crucial for Pence’s 2020 bid.

Pence continued to renegotiate NAFTA, while also fighting to keep the Tax Reform of 2017 away from the Democrats' grip. Pence also began long negotiations with Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Schumer on a compromise on immigration. In November 2019, Pence signed the American Immigration Enforcement and Reform Act of 2019 (AIERA) into law, allocating for funds to strengthen the U.S.-Mexican border while also allowing the most of the policies of DACA to take effect.

Despite being stuck as a “lame duck” president, President Pence’s approval ratings were considerably higher than his predecessor’s ever were.

Averaged approval ratings of President Mike Pence
Approve - 52%
Disapprove - 44%
Uncertain - 4%
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #29 on: November 25, 2017, 03:05:53 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2017, 03:32:43 PM by Jolly Democrat »

2019 Gubernatorial Races

Democratic Party - 25 seats (-)
Republican Party - 24 seats (-)
Independent - 1 seat (-)

In 2019, the governorships of Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi remained unchanged. Incumbents Matt Bevin (R-KY) and John Bel Edwards (D-LA) were reelected to another term, while Lieutenant Governor Tate Reeves (R-MS) was elected to succeed term-limited governor Phil Bryant (R-MS).

Kentucky
✓ Matt Bevin (R) (inc.) - 55.2%
Jim Gray (D) - 42.6%

Louisiana
✓ John Bel Edwards (D) (inc.) - 60.3%

Jeff Landry (R) - 12.5%
Garret Graves (R) - 12.4%
Lance Harris (R) - 7.8%
Sharon Hewitt (R) - 5.1%
Others - 1.9%

Mississippi
✓ Tate Reeves (R) - 58.9%

David Blount (D) - 40.0%

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« Reply #30 on: November 25, 2017, 03:09:45 PM »

What will become of Jim Hood?
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #31 on: November 25, 2017, 03:11:53 PM »

He got reelected in 2019 for AG, but you'll see...
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« Reply #32 on: November 25, 2017, 05:24:24 PM »

enjoying the time line
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #33 on: November 25, 2017, 07:23:46 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2017, 06:55:22 PM by Jolly Democrat »

The 2020 Democratic Primaries
Part I



Between February and July of 2019, fourteen prominent Democrats announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. These were, in order of declaration, former Governor Deval Patrick (February 2, 2019), former Governor Martin O'Malley (February 5, 2019), former Governor Lincoln Chafee (March 16, 2019), Congressman Seth Moulton (March 31, 2019), Senator Cory Booker (April 7, 2019), Governor Andrew Cuomo (April 30, 2019), Senator Kamala Harris (May 1, 2019), Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard (May 17, 2019), Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (May 20, 2019), Senator Sherrod Brown (June 1, 2019), former Governor John Hickenlooper (June 6, 2019), Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (June 6, 2019), Businessman Tom Steyer (June 16, 2019), and Senator Amy Klobuchar (July 5, 2019). Former Congressman John Delaney had declared his candidacy in 2017.

Prior and during all of these Democrats declaring their candidacies, most were paying attention to two huge potential contenders: Former Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders. Biden had seriously considered a presidential bid between 2017 and 2019, but ultimately decided against it, citing his age and wishing to be with his family. Sanders also stated that his age was a factor, but also said there were "many true progressives in this race" and specifically said that Congresswoman Gabbard and Senator Brown would make great presidents.

Another potential candidate that did not run was Congressman Jason Carter, who had remained in the public spotlight following his 2017 victory, but Carter said that he would forgo a bid for President in 2020 and instead opted to run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican David Perdue.

During the months leading up to the Iowa caucuses, the field became increasingly dominated by Senator Kamala Harris, Senator Sherrod Brown, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, and Governor Andrew Cuomo. Between August and February, three candidates dropped out of the race, former Governor John Hickenlooper (October 2, 2019), former Governor Lincoln Chafee (October 29, 2019), and Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (December 13, 2019).

Before everyone knew it, the Iowa caucuses came.

2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses
✓ Sherrod Brown - 22.4% (+10 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 20.1% (+9 delegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 15.8% (+6 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 15.5% (+6 delegates)
Cory Booker - 8.3% (+3 delegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 7.0% (+3 delegates)
Deval Patrick - 5.9% (+2 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 3.1% (+2 delegates)
Tom Steyer - 0.9% (+1 delegate)
Martin O'Malley - 0.4% (+1 delegate)
Seth Moulton - 0.3% (+1 delegate)
Others - 0.2%
John Delaney - 0.1% (-)

Shortly after the results and Sherrod Brown's subsequent victory speech, three more candidates dropped out: Senator Amy Klobuchar, former Governor Martin O'Malley, and former Congressman John Delaney. With nine major candidates left in the race, the race for New Hampshire was on.

2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary
✓ Kirsten Gillibrand - 29.0% (+7 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 21.8% (+5 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 20.7% (+5 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 14.6% (+4 delegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 6.2% (+1 delegate)
Cory Booker - 4.5% (+1 delegate)
Deval Patrick - 2.4% (+1 delegate)
Seth Moulton - 0.5% (-)
Tom Steyer - 0.2% (-)
Others - 0.1%

After Gillibrand's wider-than-expected victory, Governor Andrew Cuomo, Senator Cory Booker, former Governor Deval Patrick, and Congressman Seth Moulton suspended their campaigns. Many pundits believe that Gillibrand's wide victory was attributed to a split in voters who supported Senator Sanders' campaign in 2016 between Senator Brown and Congresswoman Gabbard.

With only five major candidates left in the race, the debates leading up to Nevada became increasingly bitter and heated. A six minute exchange between Senators Harris and Brown was considered one of the most vicious moments of the primary to that date, while a major gaffe by Gillibrand just days before the Nevada caucuses caused her polling numbers to tank.

2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses
✓ Kamala Harris - 40.1% (+15 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 32.6% (+10 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 13.4% (+5 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 13.0% (+5 delegates)
Tom Steyer - 0.8% (-)
Others - 0.1%

During the last week of February, the five Democratic candidates pushed onto South Carolina, where winning over minorities would be absolutely crucial for victory. However, Kamala Harris had earned backing from Congressman Archie Parnell and House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn, giving her a strong advantage over the other Democrats.

2020 South Carolina Democratic primary
✓ Kamala Harris - 62.5% (+33 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 22.6% (+13 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 11.9% (+6 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 2.5% (+1 delegates)
Tom Steyer - 0.4% (-)
Others - 0.1%

Kamala Harris had secured a strong victory in the Palmetto State. Shortly after her victory, businessman Tom Steyer had finally dropped out of the race.
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WestVegeta
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« Reply #34 on: November 25, 2017, 09:21:17 PM »

A Gillibrand/Brown ticket would make me nut
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« Reply #35 on: November 25, 2017, 11:53:21 PM »

Why is there a picture of Mary Landrieu in the image (top row, third from left)?
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #36 on: November 26, 2017, 11:27:18 AM »

Why is there a picture of Mary Landrieu in the image (top row, third from left)?
That's Kirsten Gillibrand
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #37 on: November 26, 2017, 11:56:42 AM »

Brown or Gabbard 2020!
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #38 on: November 26, 2017, 01:53:51 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2017, 04:03:32 PM by Jolly Democrat »

The 2020 Democratic Primaries
Part II


In just one month, a field of fifteen candidates was narrowed down to just four: Senator Sherrod Brown, Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, Senator Kamala Harris, and Senator Kirsten Gillibrand. In a majority of polls, Senators Brown and Harris were jockeying for first place, with Gillibrand behind the two, and Congresswoman Gabbard trailing. Despite not holding a solid lead in polls, Senator Harris had nearly a majority of the superdelegates, giving her a wider lead over her opponents in the primary.

All the candidates engaged in significantly more fiery and heated debates as Super Tuesday came closer and closer. Gillibrand, unfortunately for her, found herself unable to recover in polls, and continuously lagged behind in nearly every contest. Gabbard also trailed most of the candidates, however she put most of her efforts into American Samoa and Vermont, both of which involved her being competitive. Soon enough, the results came in.

Alabama
✓ Kamala Harris - 75.9% (+42 delegates)

Kirsten Gillibrand  - 10.2% (+5 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 8.2% (+4 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 5.7% (+2 delegates)

American Samoa
✓ Kamala Harris - 59.4% (+3 delegates)

Tulsi Gabbard - 20.3% (+1 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 10.4% (+1 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 9.9% (+1 delegates)

Arkansas
✓ Sherrod Brown - 46.1% (+15 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 40.8% (+13 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 7.3% (+2 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 5.8% (+2 delegates)

California
✓ Kamala Harris - 57.5% (+274 delegates)

Kirsten Gillibrand - 20.2% (+96 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 15.7% (+72 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 6.6% (+33 delegates)

Colorado
✓ Kamala Harris - 44.7% (+32 delegates)

Tulsi Gabbard - 24.5% (+15 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 22.4% (+15 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 8.4% (+4 delegates)

Georgia
✓ Kamala Harris -  68.4% (+70 delegates)

Kirsten Gillibrand - 17.9% (+18 delegates)
Sherrod Brown - 12.4% (+13 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 1.3% (+1 delegate)

Massachusetts
✓ Kamala Harris -  43.1% (+39 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 32.8% (+30 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 12.4% (+11 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 11.7% (+11 delegates)

Minnesota
✓ Sherrod Brown - 54.0% (+42 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 29.9% (+23 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 7.6% (+7 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 5.8% (+5 delegates)

Oklahoma
✓ Sherrod Brown - 53.5% (+20 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 29.6% (+11 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 9.3% (+5 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 4.6% (+2 delegates)

Tennessee
✓ Sherrod Brown - 42.8% (+30 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 38.4% (+26 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 10.7% (+7 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 6.1% (+4 delegates)

Texas
✓ Kamala Harris - 60.2% (+135 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 20.5% (+46 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 14.9% (+33 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 3.4% (+8 delegates)

Vermont
✓ Sherrod Brown - 39.5% (+7 delegates)

Tulsi Gabbard - 34.0% (+5 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 11.8% (+2 delegates)
Kamala Harris - 11.7% (+2 delegates)

Virginia
✓ Kamala Harris - 59.4% (+58 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 29.4% (+28 delegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 5.3% (+5 delegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 3.9% (+4 delegates)

Delegate totals following Super Tuesday:

Kamala Harris - 789 delegates (332 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 361 delegates (82 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

Senator Kamala Harris was declared the winner of the Super Tuesday contests, however it became apparent that Senator Brown would be a strong contender for her in the months ahead. Senator Gillibrand, however, with no victories in any of the contests, announced she would suspend her campaign. Three days later, Congresswoman Gabbard did the same.

The race was now down to Senator Kamala Harris and Senator Sherrod Brown.

Harris head a significant advantage over her opponent due to a large collection of donors, superdelegates, and endorsements, however Brown's campaign had significantly more grassroots support in Middle America. Because of this, Brown's campaign focused on winning the same progressive voters who backed Bernie Sanders' campaign in 2016, primarily whites and blue collar workers. Harris, on the other hand, maintained most of Hillary Clinton's base of minorities, women, and "third way" Democrats.

For the rest of the month, both candidates fought for the mid-March contests, however in the end, Senator Brown won a slim majority of the contests.

Florida
✓ Kamala Harris - 61.3% (+138 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 34.7% (+76 delegates)

Illinois
✓ Sherrod Brown - 50.5% (+79 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 48.7% (+77 delegates)

Kansas
✓ Sherrod Brown - 70.9% (+24 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 29.3% (+9 delegates)

Louisiana
✓ Kamala Harris - 69.4% (+36 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 30.0% (+15 delegates)

Maine
✓ Sherrod Brown - 65.1% (+16 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 33.1% (+9 delegates)

Michigan
✓ Sherrod Brown - 53.6% (+70 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 45.2% (+60 delegates)

Mississippi
✓ Kamala Harris - 83.9% (+32 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 15.2% (+4 delegates)

Missouri
✓ Sherrod Brown - 53.9% (+39 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 44.7% (+32 delegates)

Nebraska
✓ Sherrod Brown - 60.3% (+15 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 38.7% (+10 delegates)

North Carolina
✓ Kamala Harris - 52.5% (+58 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 45.3% (+49 delegates)

Northern Mariana Islands
✓ Kamala Harris - 52.2% (+4 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 40.7% (+2 delegates)

Ohio
✓ Sherrod Brown - 64.9% (+95 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 33.4% (+48 delegates)

Delegate totals following Mid-March Contests:

Kamala Harris - 1,302 delegates (352 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 765 delegates (113 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

Shortly after the mid-March contests, the previous two 2016 Democratic primary rivals, Secretary Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders, issued their endorsements, with Clinton endorsing Senator Harris and Sanders endorsing Senator Brown. Harris continued to lead in polls, however Brown was determined to best Harris in the next few months.

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« Reply #39 on: November 26, 2017, 06:00:14 PM »

awesome.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #40 on: November 26, 2017, 06:18:38 PM »

The 2020 Democratic Primaries
Part III


As the race narrowed down to Senator Kamala Harris vs. Senator Sherrod Brown, each and every delegate was crucial, however Harris held an advantage in both pledged and unpledged delegates. Debates between Harris and Brown became increasingly vicious as Brown was beginning to close in on Harris' lead, and the upcoming contests were not in Harris' favor.

Between late March and April, Sherrod Brown scored a long string of victories.

Alaska
✓ Sherrod Brown - 75.7% (+14 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 24.1% (+2 delegates)

Arizona
✓ Kamala Harris - 55.4% (+42 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 44.0% (+33 delegates)

Democrats Abroad
✓ Sherrod Brown - 58.3% (+8 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 41.7% (+5 delegates)

Hawaii
✓ Sherrod Brown - 60.2% (+15 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 35.7% (+10 delegates)

Idaho
✓ Sherrod Brown - 76.9% (+18 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 22.5% (+5 delegates)

Utah
✓ Sherrod Brown - 74.1% (+24 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 25.7% (+9 delegates)

Washington
✓ Sherrod Brown - 68.4% (+69 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 30.8% (+32 delegates)

Wisconsin
✓ Sherrod Brown - 58.0% (+50 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 40.5% (+36 delegates)

Wyoming
✓ Sherrod Brown - 57.1% (+7 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 42.9% (+5 delegates)

Delegate totals following Late March/Early April contests:

Kamala Harris - 1,448 delegates (361 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 1,003 delegates (124 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

Talks swirled among pundits that a contested convention could occur in the summer if Sherrod Brown's momentum keeps up, however only about 500 delegates separated Senator Harris from the Democratic nomination. The Harris campaign was optomistic for the upcoming New York primary, a state where Senator Brown had barely visited, along with the Acela primary along the  northeast.

But, there were still lingering fears of a contested convention. A divided Democratic Party could give President Pence another four years in the White House.

New York
✓ Kamala Harris - 62.9% (+155 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 37.1% (+92 delegates)

Delegate totals following the New York primary:

Kamala Harris - 1,603 delegates (387 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 1,095 delegates (126 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

Harris had exceeded expectations in New York, mostly due to high turnout in New York City and lower turnout upstate. As a result, Brown's campaign doubled down on Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Indiana, which would have the potential to restart his momentum.

But would it be enough?

Connecticut
✓ Kamala Harris - 54.9% (+30 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 45.1% (+25 delegates)

Delaware
✓ Kamala Harris - 62.5% (+13 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 37.1% (+8 delegates)

Maryland
✓ Kamala Harris - 65.7% (+63 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 34.1% (+32 delegates)

Pennsylvania
✓ Sherrod Brown - 50.2% (+96 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 48.4% (+93 delegates)

Rhode Island
✓ Sherrod Brown - 57.2% (+14 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 42.7% (+10 delegates)

Delegate totals following the Acela contests:

Kamala Harris - 1,812 delegates (394 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 1,270 delegates (159 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

The chances of Sherrod Brown securing the nomination began to fade away as Harris only needed 100 more delegates to clinch the nomination, but even with this, Sherrod Brown stated that he would stay in the race until it was truly impossible for him to secure the nomination. Brown pushed onto Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, and Montana, while Harris pushed onto Guam, Puerto Rico, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

Indiana
✓ Sherrod Brown - 54.1% (+45 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 45.7% (+38 delegates)

Guam
✓ Kamala Harris - 55.5% (+4 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 44.5% (+3 delegates)

West Virginia
✓ Sherrod Brown - 60.1% (+19 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 33.8% (+10 delegates)

Kentucky
✓ Sherrod Brown - 58.5% (+33 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 39.0% (+22 delegates)

Oregon
✓ Sherrod Brown - 52.7% (+32 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 46.7% (+29 delegates)

Delegate totals after the May contests:

Kamala Harris - 1,915 delegates (405 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 1,402 delegates (182 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate


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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #41 on: November 26, 2017, 06:31:11 PM »

This is excellent work! One question:

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Oughtn't this read "would forgo"?
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The Govanah Jake
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« Reply #42 on: November 26, 2017, 06:31:32 PM »



He better win in a contested convention or else...
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #43 on: November 26, 2017, 06:32:54 PM »

My guess is Carter serves as Harris's running mate for four to eight years, then wins election in his own right in either 2024 or 2028.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #44 on: November 26, 2017, 06:54:09 PM »

It better be a contested convention with Gottheimer becoming the nominee.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #45 on: November 26, 2017, 06:54:40 PM »

This is excellent work! One question:

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Oughtn't this read "would forgo"?
My fault, fixing it rn
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #46 on: November 27, 2017, 07:44:52 PM »

The 2020 Democratic Primaries
Part IV

While Sherrod Brown had won more contests in May than his rival, it was still unlikely that without a contested convention, Brown would not be able to secure the 2020 Democratic nomination for President of the United States. Yet again, Senator Brown said he would go until the end, saying "anything could happen" between late May and the final contests in June.

But, unfortunately for Senator Brown, his hopes for a shot at the nomination weren't enough to get it.

Virgin Islands
✓ Kamala Harris - 85.4% (+10 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 15.6% (+2 delegates)

Puerto Rico
✓ Kamala Harris - 60.9% (+37 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 39.1% (+23 delegates)

Montana
✓ Sherrod Brown - 62.7% (+14 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 31.5% (+7 delegates)

New Jersey
✓ Kamala Harris - 64.5% (+81 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 35.5% (+45 delegates)

New Mexico
✓ Kamala Harris - 53.9% (+18 delegates)

Sherrod Brown - 46.1% (+16 delegates)

North Dakota
✓ Sherrod Brown - 71.1% (+13 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 25.6% (+5 delegates)

South Dakota
✓ Sherrod Brown - 58.3% (+12 delegates)

Kamala Harris - 41.7% (+8 delegates)

Delegate totals after early June contests

Kamala Harris - 2,081 delegates (455 superdelegates)
Sherrod Brown - 1,527 delegates (199 superdelegates)
Kirsten Gillibrand - 218 delegates (99 superdelegates)
Tulsi Gabbard - 108 delegates (11 superdelegates)
Amy Klobuchar - 6 delegates (5 superdelegates)
Cory Booker - 4 delegates (2 superdelegates)
Andrew Cuomo - 4 delegates (1 superdelegate)
Deval Patrick - 3 delegates
Tom Steyer - 1 delegate
Seth Moulton - 1 delegate
Martin O'Malley - 1 delegate

KAMALA HARRIS BECOMES PRESUMPTIVE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE
With just enough delegates to clinch the nomination, Kamala Harris has been declared the presumptive Democratic nominee for President of the United States.



As for Sherrod Brown, he had but one choice: concede and attempt to unite the party behind Senator Harris.



In his concession speech, Brown said he was disheartened by his defeat, but encouraged his supporters to rally behind Harris and hoped she would carry many of his principles to the White House.

But, in Sherrod's mind, he wasn't so confident in Kamala. His fear was that she would fail to drive out progressive voters and bring back blue collar workers who had voted Republican in 2016, a repeat of Hillary Clinton's defeat in 2016. He was wary of her lack of experience and how her campaign was heavily driven by donors, while he had been in politics for over four decades and was driven by grassroots efforts. Even in polls, he was much more formidable against President Mike Pence, while Harris struggled in key states, especially the Rust Belt.

Being mathematically eliminated from the nomination, there was nothing he could do. All he could do was give a rousing speech in support of Kamala Harris at the upcoming Democratic National Convention.
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WestVegeta
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« Reply #47 on: November 28, 2017, 08:31:36 AM »

I more closely agree with Kamala on policy, but I think Sherrod has a better chance of winning (irl)
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #48 on: November 28, 2017, 10:24:59 PM »

lol at Cordray running for Congress, Ohio Dems picking up a total of 5 extra House seats, but Sutton still somehow losing a run for Governor. Very lulzy

But Purple heart Sherrod forever and always.
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Lord Admirale
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« Reply #49 on: November 30, 2017, 08:53:06 PM »

Next update will contain Harris' running mate selection, running mate, and the conventions. Stay tuned.
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