100 Senate districts
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  100 Senate districts
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Author Topic: 100 Senate districts  (Read 2115 times)
Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #25 on: November 12, 2020, 08:58:27 PM »

not a mild gerrymander, the entire map is dripping with partisan intent.  There is no logical reason to split the Twin Cities, Denver metro, Detroit metro, etc with districts this large.  Except for partisanship.
well, yes, I agree that there is no real reason other than desiring to taking into account partisanship to draw the lines this way.
But this map was designed to correct for the impact of partisanship on the results of district lines in the present, so...
Not to mention, in the parlance I use, "fair map" is one that uses partisan data and tries to make it equal, while one that ignores partisanship at least mostly is a "non-partisan map". So this is a fair map under that definition. A non-partisan 100 seat Senate map would only create a larger R advantage.
no, it's not even fair.  Trump and Clinton were pretty close in the popular vote, if you wanted to make it fair from a partisan perspective there would 49 Trump seats.  Yes it's true that Dems fail to appeal to rural areas, but you waaaaay overcompensated for that.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #26 on: November 12, 2020, 09:01:23 PM »

not a mild gerrymander, the entire map is dripping with partisan intent.  There is no logical reason to split the Twin Cities, Denver metro, Detroit metro, etc with districts this large.  Except for partisanship.
well, yes, I agree that there is no real reason other than desiring to taking into account partisanship to draw the lines this way.
But this map was designed to correct for the impact of partisanship on the results of district lines in the present, so...
Not to mention, in the parlance I use, "fair map" is one that uses partisan data and tries to make it equal, while one that ignores partisanship at least mostly is a "non-partisan map". So this is a fair map under that definition. A non-partisan 100 seat Senate map would only create a larger R advantage.
no, it's not even fair.  Trump and Clinton were pretty close in the popular vote, if you wanted to make it fair from a partisan perspective there would 49 Trump seats.  Yes it's true that Dems fail to appeal to rural areas, but you waaaaay overcompensated for that.
The median district was within 2 points of the nation four times consecutively. This doesn't look like a completely ironclad Dem gerrymander. If it was, then I'd be agreeing with you more on the topic.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #27 on: November 13, 2020, 04:38:43 AM »

not a mild gerrymander, the entire map is dripping with partisan intent.  There is no logical reason to split the Twin Cities, Denver metro, Detroit metro, etc with districts this large.  Except for partisanship.
well, yes, I agree that there is no real reason other than desiring to taking into account partisanship to draw the lines this way.
But this map was designed to correct for the impact of partisanship on the results of district lines in the present, so...
Not to mention, in the parlance I use, "fair map" is one that uses partisan data and tries to make it equal, while one that ignores partisanship at least mostly is a "non-partisan map". So this is a fair map under that definition. A non-partisan 100 seat Senate map would only create a larger R advantage.
no, it's not even fair.  Trump and Clinton were pretty close in the popular vote, if you wanted to make it fair from a partisan perspective there would 49 Trump seats.  Yes it's true that Dems fail to appeal to rural areas, but you waaaaay overcompensated for that.
The median district was within 2 points of the nation four times consecutively. This doesn't look like a completely ironclad Dem gerrymander. If it was, then I'd be agreeing with you more on the topic.
That doesn't disprove my point at all.  Sure, there are limits to how much you can mathematically gerrymander because you didn't split counties.  But the intent was clear and it very much benefits one party even when taking into account the popular vote (which isn't even relevant in SMDs, if you care about the popular vote, do PR)
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #28 on: November 13, 2020, 06:22:27 AM »

not a mild gerrymander, the entire map is dripping with partisan intent.  There is no logical reason to split the Twin Cities, Denver metro, Detroit metro, etc with districts this large.  Except for partisanship.
well, yes, I agree that there is no real reason other than desiring to taking into account partisanship to draw the lines this way.
But this map was designed to correct for the impact of partisanship on the results of district lines in the present, so...
Not to mention, in the parlance I use, "fair map" is one that uses partisan data and tries to make it equal, while one that ignores partisanship at least mostly is a "non-partisan map". So this is a fair map under that definition. A non-partisan 100 seat Senate map would only create a larger R advantage.
no, it's not even fair.  Trump and Clinton were pretty close in the popular vote, if you wanted to make it fair from a partisan perspective there would 49 Trump seats.  Yes it's true that Dems fail to appeal to rural areas, but you waaaaay overcompensated for that.
The median district was within 2 points of the nation four times consecutively. This doesn't look like a completely ironclad Dem gerrymander. If it was, then I'd be agreeing with you more on the topic.
That doesn't disprove my point at all.  Sure, there are limits to how much you can mathematically gerrymander because you didn't split counties.  But the intent was clear and it very much benefits one party even when taking into account the popular vote (which isn't even relevant in SMDs, if you care about the popular vote, do PR)
Again, I ask, would this map stop Rs from taking the majority in 2014?
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #29 on: November 13, 2020, 04:22:49 PM »

not a mild gerrymander, the entire map is dripping with partisan intent.  There is no logical reason to split the Twin Cities, Denver metro, Detroit metro, etc with districts this large.  Except for partisanship.
well, yes, I agree that there is no real reason other than desiring to taking into account partisanship to draw the lines this way.
But this map was designed to correct for the impact of partisanship on the results of district lines in the present, so...
Not to mention, in the parlance I use, "fair map" is one that uses partisan data and tries to make it equal, while one that ignores partisanship at least mostly is a "non-partisan map". So this is a fair map under that definition. A non-partisan 100 seat Senate map would only create a larger R advantage.
no, it's not even fair.  Trump and Clinton were pretty close in the popular vote, if you wanted to make it fair from a partisan perspective there would 49 Trump seats.  Yes it's true that Dems fail to appeal to rural areas, but you waaaaay overcompensated for that.
The median district was within 2 points of the nation four times consecutively. This doesn't look like a completely ironclad Dem gerrymander. If it was, then I'd be agreeing with you more on the topic.
That doesn't disprove my point at all.  Sure, there are limits to how much you can mathematically gerrymander because you didn't split counties.  But the intent was clear and it very much benefits one party even when taking into account the popular vote (which isn't even relevant in SMDs, if you care about the popular vote, do PR)
Again, I ask, would this map stop Rs from taking the majority in 2014?
I have no idea, there is no way to know.  States don't vote the same for president as they do senate.  But what I do know is the national popular vote is completely irrelevant in SMDs.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #30 on: November 13, 2020, 05:27:49 PM »

not a mild gerrymander, the entire map is dripping with partisan intent.  There is no logical reason to split the Twin Cities, Denver metro, Detroit metro, etc with districts this large.  Except for partisanship.
well, yes, I agree that there is no real reason other than desiring to taking into account partisanship to draw the lines this way.
But this map was designed to correct for the impact of partisanship on the results of district lines in the present, so...
Not to mention, in the parlance I use, "fair map" is one that uses partisan data and tries to make it equal, while one that ignores partisanship at least mostly is a "non-partisan map". So this is a fair map under that definition. A non-partisan 100 seat Senate map would only create a larger R advantage.
no, it's not even fair.  Trump and Clinton were pretty close in the popular vote, if you wanted to make it fair from a partisan perspective there would 49 Trump seats.  Yes it's true that Dems fail to appeal to rural areas, but you waaaaay overcompensated for that.
The median district was within 2 points of the nation four times consecutively. This doesn't look like a completely ironclad Dem gerrymander. If it was, then I'd be agreeing with you more on the topic.
That doesn't disprove my point at all.  Sure, there are limits to how much you can mathematically gerrymander because you didn't split counties.  But the intent was clear and it very much benefits one party even when taking into account the popular vote (which isn't even relevant in SMDs, if you care about the popular vote, do PR)
Again, I ask, would this map stop Rs from taking the majority in 2014?
I have no idea, there is no way to know.  States don't vote the same for president as they do senate.  But what I do know is the national popular vote is completely irrelevant in SMDs.
It's not completely irrelevant. The median seat measure is a valid way of measuring how a map leans in terms of likely outcomes. One of the best markers of a fair map is having a median district close to the average.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #31 on: November 13, 2020, 07:32:41 PM »

not a mild gerrymander, the entire map is dripping with partisan intent.  There is no logical reason to split the Twin Cities, Denver metro, Detroit metro, etc with districts this large.  Except for partisanship.
well, yes, I agree that there is no real reason other than desiring to taking into account partisanship to draw the lines this way.
But this map was designed to correct for the impact of partisanship on the results of district lines in the present, so...
Not to mention, in the parlance I use, "fair map" is one that uses partisan data and tries to make it equal, while one that ignores partisanship at least mostly is a "non-partisan map". So this is a fair map under that definition. A non-partisan 100 seat Senate map would only create a larger R advantage.
no, it's not even fair.  Trump and Clinton were pretty close in the popular vote, if you wanted to make it fair from a partisan perspective there would 49 Trump seats.  Yes it's true that Dems fail to appeal to rural areas, but you waaaaay overcompensated for that.
The median district was within 2 points of the nation four times consecutively. This doesn't look like a completely ironclad Dem gerrymander. If it was, then I'd be agreeing with you more on the topic.
That doesn't disprove my point at all.  Sure, there are limits to how much you can mathematically gerrymander because you didn't split counties.  But the intent was clear and it very much benefits one party even when taking into account the popular vote (which isn't even relevant in SMDs, if you care about the popular vote, do PR)
Again, I ask, would this map stop Rs from taking the majority in 2014?
I have no idea, there is no way to know.  States don't vote the same for president as they do senate.  But what I do know is the national popular vote is completely irrelevant in SMDs.
It's not completely irrelevant. The median seat measure is a valid way of measuring how a map leans in terms of likely outcomes. One of the best markers of a fair map is having a median district close to the average.
compactness is a better measure of that.  If you care about the total votes meeting the outcome, support PR.  But drawing SMDs to have a similar outcome to the PV is partisan gerrymandering, splitting the Twin Cities simply makes no sense.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #32 on: November 13, 2020, 07:50:08 PM »

not a mild gerrymander, the entire map is dripping with partisan intent.  There is no logical reason to split the Twin Cities, Denver metro, Detroit metro, etc with districts this large.  Except for partisanship.
well, yes, I agree that there is no real reason other than desiring to taking into account partisanship to draw the lines this way.
But this map was designed to correct for the impact of partisanship on the results of district lines in the present, so...
Not to mention, in the parlance I use, "fair map" is one that uses partisan data and tries to make it equal, while one that ignores partisanship at least mostly is a "non-partisan map". So this is a fair map under that definition. A non-partisan 100 seat Senate map would only create a larger R advantage.
no, it's not even fair.  Trump and Clinton were pretty close in the popular vote, if you wanted to make it fair from a partisan perspective there would 49 Trump seats.  Yes it's true that Dems fail to appeal to rural areas, but you waaaaay overcompensated for that.
The median district was within 2 points of the nation four times consecutively. This doesn't look like a completely ironclad Dem gerrymander. If it was, then I'd be agreeing with you more on the topic.
That doesn't disprove my point at all.  Sure, there are limits to how much you can mathematically gerrymander because you didn't split counties.  But the intent was clear and it very much benefits one party even when taking into account the popular vote (which isn't even relevant in SMDs, if you care about the popular vote, do PR)
Again, I ask, would this map stop Rs from taking the majority in 2014?
I have no idea, there is no way to know.  States don't vote the same for president as they do senate.  But what I do know is the national popular vote is completely irrelevant in SMDs.
It's not completely irrelevant. The median seat measure is a valid way of measuring how a map leans in terms of likely outcomes. One of the best markers of a fair map is having a median district close to the average.
compactness is a better measure of that.  If you care about the total votes meeting the outcome, support PR.  But drawing SMDs to have a similar outcome to the PV is partisan gerrymandering, splitting the Twin Cities simply makes no sense.
If that's your definition of a fair map, then we have two different concepts of what the term fair map ought to describe.
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