Did Trump really win more black and Latino voters than Romney?

[All Along The Watchtower]

Or did minority turnout (especially black turnout) decline enough on the Democratic side to significantly reduce Clinton's share of the total non-white minority vote, relative to Trump's share of the non-white vote? This strikes me as making more sense intuitively for several reasons, chief among them being that Obama was not on the ballot;  also, it's important to remember that non-negligible numbers of black and Latino voters in certain places defected to Jill Stein (particularly in certain cities outside of the South).

Furthermore, I don't really think that significant numbers of black, Latino, or Asian voters were going to defect from Obama to Trump; remember the RNC's "autopsy" post-2012? If some non-white minorities were still voting Republican in 2012, how many more could Donald Trump (or any Republican candidate in 2016 for that matter) actually stand to either gain or lose, really?

To put this another way; I think there wasn't much room for Democrats to pick up more voters "of color" in 2016, since most of them were already voting Democratic. Especially since, again, Obama was no longer on the ballot...

Or is there merit to both explanations? I think that this is plausible too.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I remember reading a latino decisions analysis that came to the conclusion that the exit polls were skewed.

It was actually a good read.

[Mr. Smith]

I dunno about Latino, but it's definitely the case with black voters.

Turns out talking about getting jobs back and asking "what have you got to lose" has greater resonance than that of whatever Romney was trying to do.

Between Obama off ballot, and Hillary having said that sh*& about "super-predators" and being of the era when Bill signed that Crime Bill...what better way to stick than go with Trump?

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Black? Yes, but it was impossible to do worse than Romney considering who he was running against. Latino? About the same, losing ground with Mexicans but gaining with Hispanos (old Spanish who have been in the Southwest since before Mexico or the US gained independence) and Puerto Ricans. The only group he won was Cubans, although they continued to trend democrat as the older ones who fled Cuba died off and younger Cubans vote somewhat more like Puerto Ricans.

See RealisticIdealist's article on it:https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/hispanic-heterogeneity-in-the-2016-election/

[Mr. Smith]

Black? Yes, but it was impossible to do worse than Romney considering who he was running against. Latino? About the same, losing ground with Mexicans but gaining with Hispanos (old Spanish who have been in the Southwest since before Mexico or the US gained independence) and Puerto Ricans. The only group he won was Cubans, although they continued to trend democrat as the older ones who fled Cuba died off and younger Cubans vote somewhat more like Puerto Ricans.

See RealisticIdealist's article on it:https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/hispanic-heterogeneity-in-the-2016-election/

Romney did better than McCain...but then Obama seemingly uniformly lost share.

[Maverick J-Mac]

I don't understand why Democrats have such a hard time figuring out last year's election.  America is not the place they thought it was.  After being in office for 8 years parties tend to become out of touch with what's going on in the country.  See the election patters for the past quarter of a century.  Identity politics and breaking people up into groups while taking their votes for granted is about the most snobbish elitist move a party can do.   Trump won because he was in touch with what average Americans go through everyday.  For those of you who aren't old enough to remember when Obama ran for president, I'll tell you a little secret.  The "yes we can crowd" was the same as the "build the wall crowd."  Both consisted of a herd waiting for the next person to tell them what to do.  Democrats really assumed they had a higher moral ground than Trump and it really turned off alot of traditional Democrat voters.  Maybe Democrats can get black to rescue them next time?

Yes I know it's hard to deal with isn't it?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I remember reading a latino decisions analysis that came to the conclusion that the exit polls were skewed.

It was actually a good read.

Looking at county by county results, it's clear that Clinton did worse with Hispanics than Obama did. she failed to crack 80% in a single county in South Texas, for starters.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I dunno about Latino, but it's definitely the case with black voters.

Black? Yes, but it was impossible to do worse than Romney considering who he was running against. Latino?

No. Black Republicans that may have voted for Obama defected back, but it was because of low propensity black voters who ONLY voted for Obama staying home. Trump did HORRIBLE when you compare him to any non-Obama facing Republican since LBJ's rout of Goldwater.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I don't understand why Democrats have such a hard time figuring out last year's election.  America is not the place they thought it was.  After being in office for 8 years parties tend to become out of touch with what's going on in the country.  See the election patters for the past quarter of a century.  Identity politics and breaking people up into groups while taking their votes for granted is about the most snobbish elitist move a party can do.   Trump won because he was in touch with what average Americans go through everyday.  For those of you who aren't old enough to remember when Obama ran for president, I'll tell you a little secret.  The "yes we can crowd" was the same as the "build the wall crowd."  Both consisted of a herd waiting for the next person to tell them what to do.  Democrats really assumed they had a higher moral ground than Trump and it really turned off alot of traditional Democrat voters.  Maybe Democrats can get black to rescue them next time?

Yes I know it's hard to deal with isn't it?

Yes, because the alleged billionaire (yes, I said alleged billionaire) from Manhattan really knows the economic concerns of midwestern voters...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I don't understand why Democrats have such a hard time figuring out last year's election.  America is not the place they thought it was.  After being in office for 8 years parties tend to become out of touch with what's going on in the country.  See the election patters for the past quarter of a century.  Identity politics and breaking people up into groups while taking their votes for granted is about the most snobbish elitist move a party can do.   Trump won because he was in touch with what average Americans go through everyday.  For those of you who aren't old enough to remember when Obama ran for president, I'll tell you a little secret.  The "yes we can crowd" was the same as the "build the wall crowd."  Both consisted of a herd waiting for the next person to tell them what to do.  Democrats really assumed they had a higher moral ground than Trump and it really turned off alot of traditional Democrat voters.  Maybe Democrats can get black to rescue them next time?

Yes I know it's hard to deal with isn't it?

Yes, because the alleged billionaire (yes, I said alleged billionaire) from Manhattan really knows the economic concerns of midwestern voters...

He did more than Hillary.

[SingingAnalyst]

I'd say he did. Two pieces of evidence: (1) Florida, which has a high proportion of elderly, swung R even though voters overall aged 65+ swung (and trended) D (thus suggesting that the Latino vote failed to come through for Hillary); (2) Ever-so-slight increases for Trump over Romney in Philadelphia and Detroit (suggesting Trump improved somewhat on Romney's numbers with Black voters).

[Intell]

Look at black and Latino precincts and you find that yes. Black voters are caused by black republicans shifting back republican after Obama wasn't in the ballot. Hispanic voters could be caused by the fact that many Hispanic live in rural areas and are socially conservative, so the Clinton campaign might not have been appealing especially if they've been in the US for generations. See the swings in south TX, NM.