Which safe R states are most likely to become swing/blue states any time soon?
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  Which safe R states are most likely to become swing/blue states any time soon?
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Poll
Question: Pick three
#1
Kansas
 
#2
Mississippi
 
#3
Alaska
 
#4
South Carolina
 
#5
Louisiana
 
#6
Utah
 
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Total Voters: 74

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Author Topic: Which safe R states are most likely to become swing/blue states any time soon?  (Read 1695 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: November 19, 2017, 04:25:46 PM »

Alaska and Mississippi, but I'm not sure about the third. It might actually be Utah or Kansas, but I'll go with South Carolina.

I didn't include GA, TX, etc. since there is little disagreement that those states are trending D.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: November 19, 2017, 04:36:59 PM »

Kansas and Alaska.  Trump still had really strong appeal in LA/MS/AL, so I would place all of the Dem-trending western states ahead of them.  Utah could end up electing a lot of R-caucusing Mormon independents and giving its electoral votes to a 3rd candidate a couple of times, with some similarities to the Dixiecrat situation in the mid 20th century.  I would expect some Mormon 3rd party action in Idaho as well, probably not strong enough to get any pluralities statewide, but they could take ID-01 from the mainline Republicans.  It won't help the Democrats statewide in any meaningful way, though, just Mormon R-Ind. vs. mainline R.     
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2017, 10:31:56 AM »

Why Kansas?
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2017, 02:01:14 PM »

The most likely is probably Alaska, due to the volatile nature of its electorate. Native Alaskans appear to be trending D in the long term, and there's a significant amount of D-leaning migrants from CA/OR/WA coming to AK.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2017, 03:47:49 PM »

Mississippi will never be a swing state, due to it's extremely polarized electorate, but it will probably be solid blue eventually. I voted Alaska FWIW though.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2017, 05:20:21 PM »

Alaska seems to be changing fast, and it's a small population so it doesn't take much to flip the state.

Mississippi probably will start to become more competitive once the older generations pass on.   Their the primary reason the GOP has a stranglehold on the state.

After that I guessed South Carolina, because the other options are not feasible.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2017, 08:28:14 PM »

Alaska, obviously... it's trending bluer by the minute

I could see Kansas becoming a Lean R state in ten or 20 years if Wichita and the KC suburbs become Democratic, but it will still be outnumbered by the Republicans.

South Carolina might go the way of its two neighbors eventually, but it will take longer. Mississippi's more likely than Alabama but I doubt it will go D anytime soon.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2017, 09:06:30 PM »

Alaska, obviously... it's trending bluer by the minute

I could see Kansas becoming a Lean R state in ten or 20 years if Wichita and the KC suburbs become Democratic, but it will still be outnumbered by the Republicans.

South Carolina might go the way of its two neighbors eventually, but it will take longer. Mississippi's more likely than Alabama but I doubt it will go D anytime soon

what is your evidence for Alaska becoming blue?
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2017, 09:11:06 PM »

Alaska, obviously... it's trending bluer by the minute

I could see Kansas becoming a Lean R state in ten or 20 years if Wichita and the KC suburbs become Democratic, but it will still be outnumbered by the Republicans.

South Carolina might go the way of its two neighbors eventually, but it will take longer. Mississippi's more likely than Alabama but I doubt it will go D anytime soon

what is your evidence for Alaska becoming blue?
Democrats have their best position in the state house since the early 90s, also margin of victory:

2000 – 30.5%
2004 – 25.6%
2008 – 21.5%
2012: 14%
2016: 14.7%

Also, in 2016 Trump barely cracked 50%.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: November 22, 2017, 11:56:27 AM »

What is the Atlas obsession with MS turning Blue.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #10 on: November 22, 2017, 12:25:26 PM »

What is the Atlas obsession with MS turning Blue.
I assume people think it'll become majority-black soon.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: November 22, 2017, 01:37:29 PM »

What is the Atlas obsession with MS turning Blue.
I assume people think it'll become majority-black soon.
The African American population in MS has grown by less than 2% of the total population in the last two decades. There is no evidence of that.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #12 on: November 23, 2017, 01:49:14 AM »

What is the Atlas obsession with MS turning Blue.
I assume people think it'll become majority-black soon.
The African American population in MS has grown by less than 2% of the total population in the last two decades. There is no evidence of that.

The size of the African-American population, and the resulting requisite percentage Republicans need to get among Whites to keep the state Republican.

The current heavily GOP numbers among MS Whites is the product of Boomer's being exceptionally Republican. So the problem for the GOP is that 85% GOP whites will be replaced by 65% GOP whites, which is not high enough to keep it Republican.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #13 on: November 23, 2017, 01:56:30 AM »

Alaska, obviously... it's trending bluer by the minute

I could see Kansas becoming a Lean R state in ten or 20 years if Wichita and the KC suburbs become Democratic, but it will still be outnumbered by the Republicans.

South Carolina might go the way of its two neighbors eventually, but it will take longer. Mississippi's more likely than Alabama but I doubt it will go D anytime soon

what is your evidence for Alaska becoming blue?
Democrats have their best position in the state house since the early 90s, also margin of victory:

2000 – 30.5%
2004 – 25.6%
2008 – 21.5%
2012: 14%
2016: 14.7%

Also, in 2016 Trump barely cracked 50%.

   Donald J. Trump   Michael R. Pence   Republican   163,387   51.28%   3
   Hillary Clinton   Timothy Kaine   Democratic   116,454   36.55%   0
   Gary Johnson   William F. Weld   Libertarian   18,725   5.88%

   Willard Mitt Romney   Paul Ryan   Republican   164,676   54.80%   3
   Barack H. Obama   Joseph R. Biden, Jr.   Democratic   122,640   40.81%   
   Gary Johnson   James P. Gray   Libertarian   7,392   2.46%

John S. McCain, III   Sarah Palin   Republican   193,841   59.42%   3
   Barack H. Obama   Joseph R. Biden, Jr.   Democratic   123,594   37.89%

George W. Bush   Richard Cheney   Republican   190,889   61.07%   3
   John Kerry   John Edwards   Democratic   111,025   35.52%   0

George W. Bush   Richard Cheney   Republican   167,398   58.62%   3
   Albert Gore Jr.   Joseph Lieberman   Democratic   79,004   27.67%   0
   Ralph Nader   Winona LaDuke   Green   28,747   10.07%   

Except Hillary Clinton only got 5,000 more votes than John Kerry.
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2017, 12:13:29 AM »

I agree, there is an obsession with MS turning blue, but there is not evidence for that.  In 2016, it got more Republican and blacks are not increasing their share of the population like Hispanics are in other parts of the country.  It seems like most people online love to pay attention to solidly red states going blue (even when their predictions are wrong) but ignore the fact that Montana and the entire Midwest are trending R.  If TX, AZ and GA go blue, it will hurt Republicans in the House and electoral college, but not in the Senate because republicans will solidify the Midwest and upper mountain west which have lower population but same senate seats. 
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2017, 04:20:14 AM »

Alaska, partially because it has an unusual streak about it.
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cvparty
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« Reply #16 on: November 27, 2017, 03:28:22 PM »

I'd prob say AK > MS > SC > LA > KS > UT but none of them are really realistic except Alaska which is a little bit of a wild card.

Mississippi's youth is D-leaning and its population is inching toward majority-minority, but I feel like most of the youth are leaving for better places and by the time minorities are a majority the GOP will have made inroads into minorities. (basically same for LA)

South Carolina has the same kind of potential as its neighbors but it's been inelastic for the longest time now and the upstate is more populated and super Republican so idk

Kansas might become competitive if the KCK and Wichita areas keep growing and trending Democratic, but offsetting the rest of the state is a long shot

Utah is a joke (for the near future at least)
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2017, 03:43:02 PM »

1. Alaska
2. South Carolina
3. Louisiana
4. Mississippi
5. Kansas
6. Utah
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Idaho Conservative
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« Reply #18 on: November 27, 2017, 09:24:55 PM »

This is basically a list of the most conservative states.  It is like saying which blue state is most likely to turn red: California, Hawaii, Washington, Massachusetts, or New York? (upstate NY is trending r but would never turn the whole state r unless NYC is nuked or something)  As for MS, the black population is stagnant, not growing and while young people by and large more liberal, folks get more conservative as they get older and it is predicted those in gen z (1996+) are more conservative than millennials.  I really doubt that the voting of young people will make staets more liberal in the long run but growing minority population certainly could in some states , but not MS, LA, or SC.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #19 on: January 03, 2018, 12:37:11 PM »



1. Alaska- Going with the bandwagon
2. Mississippi
3. Louisiana
4. Kansas- The damage brownback has done will make it less GOP but a libertarian gop would probably easily win Kansas if the dems move far to the left.
5. SC- Black population is decreasing in SC, so this would take longer then MS and LA.
6. Utah- Only if Mormons become dem and we've seen no evidence of that yet
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x-Guy
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« Reply #20 on: January 19, 2018, 11:45:05 PM »

The state that's most the most likely to flip is Utah due to it being around states like New Mexico and Nevada. Even then, that's still a long shot for Dems to flip.
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