Part 40: Summer 2022Republicans favored to stay in powerMinority Leader Joaquin Castro will likely continue to serve as minority leader for another term. Recent Generic Ballot polling puts the Democrats ahead by somewhere between 1 and 10 points. Although Democrats position on the Generic ballot has been on the incline, it is still significantly weaker than Republicans’ position in 2018, 2014, and 2010. Combine this with the 55 seats Democrats need to flip to take control of the house, and the challenge seems nearly impossible. The Third hurdle Democrats face is Gerrymandering. Although the Congressional Maps of several states are being challenge in court now, it seems unlikely that they will change before the midterms. The current map nationwide is a Republican favored Gerrymander, a side effect of the Democrats’ decay at the state level. All in all, Democrats will most likely gain seats, but the several dozen they need to flip the House seems unlikely.
The Senate is an equally unlikely target. While Democrats seem set to flip Arizona, that only gives them one of the three seats they need to flip. Also looking at the Senate battlegrounds, ignoring Arizona, Republicans hold 4 of the 10 or so competitive states, against the Democrats’ 6. It is not impossible to see a situation where Republicans win most of these battlegrounds, or even hold all of their seats (bar Arizona) and win a few others, such as Missouri or Wisconsin.
In short, Republicans will likely be the party in power for at least another 2 years.
Midterm ratingsGubernatorial Ratings:
Alabama -- Tossup The race for the open seat between Fmr. Chief Justice Roy Moore and Mayor Walt Maddox became significantly more competitive when Moore was accused of sexual assault and misconduct by numerous women.
Alaska -- TossupIncumbent Joe Miller’s 2018 win is looking more and more like a fluke, as his approval ratings continue to drop. He is facing State Rep. Jonathan Kreiss Tomkins.
Arizona -- TossupThis open seat has become one of the most competitive races this cycle. Eileen Klein, the state Treasurer is the Republican Nominee. Congressman Greg Stanton is the Democratic nominee.
Colorado -- Likely DAlthough Republicans insist this seat is prime to flip, Cynthia Coffman, fmr. State Attorney General, hasn’t caught fire. Incumbent Jared Polis leads in almost every single poll taken for the race.
Connecticut -- Lean RIncumbent Republican Erin Stewart remains one of the most popular governor’s in the country. She faces a strong challenger in State Senator Jonathan Harris, but she still continues to lead most polls taken.
Georgia -- TossupThe rematch between Stacey Abrams and incumbent Brian Kemp is one of the nations most hotly contested gubernatorial contests.
Iowa -- TossupThe race between incumbent Kim Reynolds and challenger Abby Finkenauer has become more competitive than originally expected, and most polling has this race within the margin of error if not outright tied.
Kansas -- TossupFollowing the controversial tenure of Kris Kobach, Lt. Gov. Wink Hartman is caught in a competitive race between himself, Democrat Josh Svaty, and Serve America Movement Candidate Greg Orman. Polling indicates a competitive race between the three men.
Maine -- Lean DIncumbent Mary Mayhew is facing a difficult re-election battle with low approval ratings. She is facing off against Democrat Betsy Sweet and several independent candidates.
Maryland -- TossupIncumbent Lt. Governor Boyd Rutherford is the Republican nominee against former Mayor Stephanie Rawlings Blake. Although Hogan is popular, Rutherford struggles with name recognition, and Blake has strong support from Democrats across the state and nation.
Massachusetts -- TossupIncumbent Acting Governor Karyn Polito is the Republican nominee, facing Congressman Setti Warren in the General election. Polito has maintained a steady approval rating, although nowhere near as high as Baker’s was.
Michigan -- Likely DGretchen Whitmer is heavily favored in her contest against fmr. Lt. Governor Brian Calley.
Minnesota -- TossupIncumbent Tim Pawlenty has had a mixed term since winning narrowly in 2018. His opponent is Peggy Flanagan, Walz's 2018 running mate. Most polls put Flanagan narrowly ahead, but Pawlenty leads in fundraising and name recognition.
Nevada -- TossupIncumbent Adam Laxalt was initially thought to be favored in his re-election bid, but Aaron Ford, a State Senator, has been keeping the race competitive.
New Hampshire -- Lean RIncumbent Kelly Ayotte and challenger Molly Kelly are both well known in state politics, and regardless of the metric used, the race has been shaping up to be competitive. Still, Ayotte has maintained a narrow but consistent lead in recent weeks, making her the slight favorite.
New York -- Lean DIncumbent Governor Elise Stefanik maintains good approval ratings, but the race between her and Fmr. NYC Mayor Bill De Blasio has become increasingly competitive as the weeks have gone on. De Blasio has opened a small lead in the early polling, and the fundamentals (Democratic State in a Democratic-favored midterm) are on his side. Stefanik only won with a 4 way split in the Democratic vote in 2018, a much more Republican friendly environment.
Ohio -- Lean RThe race between Lt. Gov Jon Husted and fmr. U.S. Attorney Steve Dettelbach has gone away from being competitive as time has gone on. Dettelbach has made multiple gaffes, weakening his candidacy.
Oregon -- Lean DAlthough normally a Democratic State, this open seat has becoming somewhat competitive and could potentially produce a Republican upset. Fmr. State House Speaker Tina Kotek is the Democratic nominee, while the Republicans have nominated Secretary of State Dennis Richardson as their candidate. Most polls have Kotek leading narrowly, but within range of an upset.
Pennsylvania -- TossupThe race between incumbent Scott Wagner and Freshman Congressman Connor Lamb has become much more competitive than many expected. Lamb, who won his congressional seat in an upset in 2020, is leading very narrowly within the margin of error, but still trails Wagner in fundraising.
Rhode Island -- TossupGovernor Allan Fung is facing Former Secretary of State Matt Brown. Brown excited parts of the base when he challenged then-Governor Gina Raimondo in the Democratic Primary, but polls have him narrowly trailing Fung.
Texas -- Lean RIncumbent Greg Abbott is seeking re-election and facing his toughest challenge thus far. State Rep. Rafael Anchia emerged victorious from a cluttered primary. A few outlier polls have placed Anchia ahead, but most polls have Abbott leading by low single digits.
Vermont -- TossupIncumbent Phil Scott is facing a tough challenge from State Attorney General T.J Donovan. Polls indicate a competitive race between the two popular politicians.
Wisconsin -- TossupThe race between embattled incumbent Scott Walker and DNC Secretary Jason Rae is more competitive than many expected. Walker’s large pool of cash, and high name recognition, have helped balance out against his growing disapprovals.
Senate Battlegrounds
Alaska -- TossupThe three way race between Dan Sullivan (Anchorage Mayor), incumbent and write in candidate Lisa Murkowski, both republicans, and former Senator Mark Begich is shaping up to be among the most interesting in the country. Democrats have an opportunity to capitalize on the split republican vote.
Arizona -- Lean DIncumbent Republican Jeff DeWit only narrowly won in 2020, and Democrat Juan Mendez seems set to flip the seat into Democratic hands. He leads in almost every major poll taken, and leads fundraising.
Florida -- TossupIncumbent Marco Rubio is seen as vulnerable, and Democrat Andrew Gillum is seen as a strong challenger, but the race is complicated by the presence of third party candidate David Jolly. Different polls fluctuate between a narrow Rubio lead and a comfortable Gillum lead, but most fall in the margin of error.
Georgia -- Lean RThe race for this open seat was hyped as a prime opportunity for a Democratic pick up, but polling for the race between Nick Ayers and Jason Carter has mostly favored Ayers. Democrats still could pick up this seat, but they are the underdogs.
Indiana -- Likely RIncumbent Todd Young won fairly easily in 2016. He seems set to do so again against Mayor Pete Buttigeg.
Iowa -- Likely RThis open seat was once considered potentially competitive, but polling between Adam Gregg and Jeff Danielson indicates that Gregg is the heavy favorite.
Kentucky -- TossupA perfect storm has aligned in this race, making it more competitive than many expected. Incumbent Rand Paul is facing State Attorney General Andy Beshear. Beshear's fundraising has eclipsed Pauls, and polling indicates a competitive race.
Missouri -- TossupIn a state that is increasingly difficult for Democrats to compete in, incumbent Jason Kander looks to prove that his 2016 win is more than just a fluke. He is facing Jay Ashcroft. Polling and Fundraising indicates a competitive race between the two candidates.
Nevada -- Likely DRepublicans made a lot of noise about this race, but incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto seems likely to cruise to victory over Ira Hansen.
New Hampshire -- TossupIncumbent Maggie Hassan is seen as vulnerable, with mediocre-to-low approval ratings and a strong challenger from Congressman Steve Negron.
North Carolina -- TossupIncumbent Deborah Ross faced a primary challenge to the left that has prompted many Republicans to see this as a prime pick up Opportunity. They also believe that their candidate, Congressman Tedd Budd, is a strong challenger to an incumbent with weak approval ratings.
Ohio -- Likely RDespite speculation that he would retire, incumbent Rob Portman is seeking a third term in office. His challenger, fmr. Congresswoman Betty Sutton, is trailing by mid to high single digits, and Portman is heavily out raising her.
Pennsylvania -- TossupIncumbent Kate McGinty won narrowly in 2016. She is facing Congressman Guy Reschenthaler. Polling indicates a narrow lead for McGinty, but the race remains neck to neck, and most polls are within the margin of error.
Wisconsin -- TossupAnother race republicans made a lot of noise about, Incumbent Russ Feingold seems to be facing a tough challenge from Congressman Sean Duffy. Duffy has outraised the incumbent, but Feingold maintains a narrowing lead in the polls.
I am bringing this back. I will begin election night 2022 for this timeline when I get through the general election in my other timeline.
