Beau Lives: 2019 - 2029

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

FEEL THE JASON!

[Edgeofnight]

Part 17:March 2020 (2/2)
Mid March Contests
Hawaii:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 33.27% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 29.62% -- 6 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 19.88% -- 4 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 17.23% -- 3 Delegates

Alaska:

Mr. Donald Trump -- 36.62% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 27.75% -- 8 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 22.21% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 13.42% -- 4 Delegates

Idaho:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 31.15% -- 12 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 28.86% -- 12 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 20.08% -- 8 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 19.95% -- 0 Delegates

Michigan:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 37.23% -- 25 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 30.62% -- 21 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 18.86% -- 13 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 13.29% -- 0 Delegates

Mississippi:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30.27% -- 15 Delegates 
Mr. Donald Trump -- 28.17% -- 11 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 25.32% -- 10 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 16.24% -- 5 Delegates

Washington DC:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 31.62% -- 7 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 29.96% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 27.75% -- 6 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 10.67% -- 0 Delegates

Super Tuesday II:
Florida:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30.86% -- 99 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 30.61% -- 0 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 20.11% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 18.42% -- 0 Delegates

Illinois:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 33.45% -- 35 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 26.56% -- 15 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 22.45% -- 13 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 17.54% -- 6 Delegates

Missouri

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 31.16% -- 32 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 24.46% -- 10 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 22.58% -- 5 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 21.80% -- 5 Delegates

Northern Marianas:

Mr. Donald Trump -- 35.11% -- 9 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 31.14% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 17.74% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 16.01% --  0 Delegates

North Carolina:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 36.46% -- 26 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 28.82% -- 21 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 18.54% -- 13 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 16.38% -- 12 Delegates

Wisconsin:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 36.59% -- 27 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 28.33% -- 12 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 20.15% -- 3 Delegates
Senator Marco Rubio -- 14.93% -- 0 Delegates

Rubio, Humiliated Again
For the second time in his life, Rubio was rejected by his home state, which narrowly favored Nikki Haley over their own senator. As expected, Rubio suspended his campaign, thanking his supporters and encouraging them to continue their involvement in politics. A few days after his withdrawal, Senator Rubio endorsed the Haley Campaign, and publicly encouraged his delegates to back her.

Late March Contests:
Arizona:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 40.75% -- 58 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 30.35% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 28.90% -- 0 Delegates

Utah:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 38.27% -- 16 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 35.65% -- 15 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 26.08% -- 9 Delegates

Current Delegate Totals (Republicans)
1,237 Needed for the Nomination
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 695 Delegates (56.18%)
Mr. Donald Trump -- 456 Delegates (36.86%)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 347 Delegates (28.05%)
Sen. Marco Rubio (withdrawn) -- 226 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse (withdrawn) -- 67 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz (withdrawn) -- 8 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- 6 Delegates
Remaining -- 696 Delegates



[Edgeofnight]

Part 18: Beginning of the End
Establishment Republicans to Kasich: Get out of the race.
Fmr. Governor John Kasich has found himself short on friends during the last few weeks of the primary campaign. Most of his supporters in congress have jumped ship to the Haley campaign, who seems fated to win the nomination. Even Ohio Senator Rob Portman, who’s office insists he still supports the Buckeye Governor, stated on CNN “I think it would be best if he dropped out.” His campaign finances have also been running thin. Donors who were supporting him to deny Trump the nomination have given up the goat. Even his former Lieutenant Governor, Congresswoman Mary Taylor (R-OH) has noted that Kasich and Trump are both mathematically eliminated from the nomination. RNC chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel stopped short of calling Nikki Haley the presumptive nominee, but noted that its “highly likely” she will be nominated on the first ballot, while also acknowledging that she may not have enough delegates pledged to her to win before the convention.
 
All Eyes on Pence:
As the primary season winds down, the silence of one Senator Mike Pence has become much more noticeable. Trump’s running mate in 2016, Pence passed on his own presidential bid, but pledged to make his voice heard. So far, he’s remained mute on who he would be supporting, even after his senate colleague endorsed Haley. He has strong ties to the Trump campaign, but also worked with Governor Kasich when they served as Governors of neighboring states. However, rumors have swirled around Capitol Hill that Pence is considering backing Haley, concerned about pinning himself to another sinking ship.

General Election Polling:

Warren vs Haley
Warren: 42%
Haley: 45%
Other:4%
Undecided: 9%

Warren vs Trump
Warren: 44%
Trump: 41%
Other: 7%
Undecided: 8%

Warren vs Kasich
Warren: 40%
Kasich: 44%
Other: 4%
Undecided: 12%

Harris vs Haley
Harris: 43%
Haley: 44%
Other: 3%
Undecided:10%

Harris vs Trump
Harris:46%
Trump: 39%
Other:6%
Undecided: 9%

Harris vs Kasich
Harris: 42%
Kasich: 45%
Other:6%
Undecided: 7%

Kander vs Haley
Kander: 45%
Haley: 44%
Other: 4%
Undecided:7%

Kander vs Trump
Kander: 47%
Trump:40%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 10%

Kander vs Kasich
Kander: 44%
Kasich: 45%
Other:3%
Undecided:8%

Generic Democrat vs Generic Republican:
Democrat: 43%
Republican: 44%
Other:5%
Undecided: 8%

Polling Map: Average Dem vs Average Republican

Convention Locations and Dates

Libertarian National Convention: June 8th - June 11th in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania
Democratic National Convention: June 29th - July 2nd in South Bend, Indiana
Republican National Convention: July 13th - July 16th in San Diego, California
Constitution National Convention: July 20th - July 23rd in Cheyenne, Wyoming.
Green National Convention: August 3rd - August 6th in Boston, Massachusetts


April Democratic Contests:

Wisconsin:

Senator Jason Kander -- 36.56% -- 31 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.56% -- 31 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 27.88% -- 20 Delegates

New York:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 36.41% -- 90 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 33.12% -- 82 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 30.47% -- 75 Delegates

Connecticut:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 38.62% -- 21 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 31.46% -- 17 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 29.92% -- 17 Delegates

Delaware:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 39.96% -- 8 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 36.75% -- 8 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 23.29% -- 5 Delegates

Maryland:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 39.72% -- 38 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 32.26% -- 31 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 28.02% -- 26 Delegates

Pennsylvania:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.56% -- 67 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 33.16% -- 63 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 31.28% -- 59 Delegates

Rhode Island:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 41.15% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 30.31% -- 7 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 28.54% -- 7 Delegates

Current Delegate Totals (Democrats):
2,382 Needed for the nomination

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 959 Pledged, 348 Unpledged, 1,307 Total (54.86%)
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 976 Pledged, 267 Unpledged, 1,243 Total (52.18%)
Sen. Jason Kander -- 934 Pledged, 206 Unpledged, 1,140 Total (47.77%)
Sen. Cory Booker (withdrawn) -- 498 Pledged, 12 Unpledged, 510 Total
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (withdrawn) -- 79 Pledged, 8 Unpledged, 89 Total
Sen. Maggie Hassan (withdrawn) -- 6 Pledged, 1 Unpledged, 7 Total
Remaining -- 599 Pledged, 56 Unpledged, 655 Total

April Republican Contests:

North Dakota:
Delegates selected at an unbound convention backed Donald Trump and Nikki Haley, with 18 Delegates and 10 Delegates respectively

New York:

Mr. Donald Trump -- 37.71% -- 36 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 32.35% -- 31 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 29.94% -- 28 Delegates

Connecticut:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 36.95% -- 10 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 32.93% -- 9 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30.12% -- 8 Delegates

Delaware:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 37.59% --16 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 32.23% -- 0 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 30.18% -- 0 Delegates

Maryland:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 35.52% -- 23 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 32.33% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 32.15% -- 6 Delegates

Pennsylvania:

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 36.97% -- 45 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 32.26% -- 15 Delegates
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 30.77% --  11 Delegates

Rhode Island:

Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 36.33% -- 7 Delegates
Mr. Donald Trump -- 33.21% -- 6 Delegates
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley - 31.46% -- 6 Delegates

Current Delegate Totals (Republicans)
1,237 Needed for the Nomination
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 792 Delegates (64.02%)
Mr. Donald Trump -- 540 Delegates (43.65%)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 422 Delegates (34.11%)
Sen. Marco Rubio (withdrawn) -- 226 Delegates
Sen. Ben Sasse (withdrawn) -- 67 Delegates
Sen. Ted Cruz (withdrawn) -- 8 Delegates
Gov. Charlie Baker (withdrawn) -- 6 Delegates
Remaining -- 440 Delegates

BREAKING:Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard will seek Democratic Nomination at Convention.



The Hawaii congresswoman and short lived presidential candidate announced that she would re-enter the race for President at the Democratic National Convention by seeking the support of unpledged delegates and Super Delegates. She is the first candidate to announce that she will seek the nomination through the convention, which will likely go to multiple ballots.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Lol.....ok Tulsi

[Edgeofnight]

Next part is all written and maps made and such, it just needs to be formatted, which will be done tomorrow. Once I get through the conventions, I'm gonna work on replacing the images that went down when HostthenPost died. If anyone wants a particular infobox, either from the 2018 gubernatorial elections, or the primaries, let me know.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 19: The Final Countdown
Breaking: Senator Pence Endorses Haley days before critical Indiana Primary.
In the days leading up to the Indiana primary, the state’s popular Junior senator has backed frontrunner Nikki Haley over his former running mate Donald Trump. Trump responded over twitter, writing “Backstabbing Pence is an establishment Hack. He cost us 2016! The people of Indiana will vote him out!.”


May Democratic Contests:

Indiana:

Senator Jason Kander -- 37.23% -- 31 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.15% -- 29 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 27.62% -- 23 Delegates

Guam:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 37.73% -- 3 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 32.02% -- 2 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 30.35% -- 2 Delegates

West Virginia:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.56% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 34.92% -- 10 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 29.52% -- 9 Delegates

Kentucky:

Senator Jason Kander -- 36.26% -- 20 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 34.41% -- 19 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 29.33% -- 16 Delegates

Oregon:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 35.73% -- 22 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 34.22% -- 21 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 30.05% -- 18 Delegates

June Democratic Contests:

Virgin Islands:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 37.87% -- 3 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 33.21% -- 2 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 28.92% -- 2 Delegates

Puerto Rico:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 36.61% -- 22 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 34.42% -- 21 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 28.97% -- 17 Delegates

Montana:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 38.80% -- 9 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 31.15% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 30.05% -- 6 Delegates

New Jersey:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 36.31% -- 46 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 34.41% -- 43 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 29.28% -- 37 Delegates

New Mexico:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 37.20% -- 13 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 31.86% -- 11 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 30.94% -- 10 Delegates

North Dakota:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 36.69% -- 7 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 33.31% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 30.00% -- 5 Delegates

South Dakota:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 35.72% -- 7 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 33.26% -- 7 Delegates
Senator Kamala Harris -- 31.02% -- 6 Delegates

DC:

Senator Kamala Harris -- 38.86% -- 8 Delegates
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 32.26% -- 6 Delegates
Senator Jason Kander -- 28.88% -- 6 Delegates

Final Delegate counts before Convention:
Current Delegate Totals (Democrats):
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,145 Pledged, 353 Unpledged, 1,498 Total
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,151 Pledged, 274 Unpledged, 1,425 Total
Sen. Jason Kander -- 1,114 Pledged, 221 Unpledged, 1,135 Total
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 0 Pledged, 12 Unpledged, 12 Total
Sen. Cory Booker (withdrawn) -- 498 Pledged, 9 Unpledged, 507 Total
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (withdrawn) -- 79 Pledged, 6 Unpledged, 85 Total
Sen. Maggie Hassan (withdrawn) -- 6 Pledged, 1 Unpledged, 7 Total

[America Needs R'hllor]

Go Kander! This was an exciting primary race.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Go Kander! This was an exciting primary race.

[Edgeofnight]

Thanks to everyone who has been reading, if you all could answer this quick poll for me, that'd be great:

https://www.strawpoll.me/15125070

Next part will be up tonight, but I think most of you know whats gonna happen.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 20: Cracked
Indiana Republican Primary, 2020

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 36.56%
Mr. Dolan Trump -- 33.32%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 30.12%

Trump, Kasich withdraw. Haley is now the presumptive nominee.
Following her victory in the Indiana Republican, Nikki Haley’s two primary opponents dropped out of the race. Mr. Donald Trump suspended his campaign by initially launching an attack at the establishment of the party for “cheating” him out of the nomination. However, half way through his speech, he pivoted to attacking the Democrats, mostly Warren, Kander, and Harris. By the end of his speech, he offered a lukewarm endorsement to Governor Haley, but an endorsement nonetheless. Kasich withdrew the following day, saying that his path to victory had closed. He endorsed Governor Haley enthusiastically, and stated that the Republican party had made the right choice by rejecting Donald Trump. This triggered a public spat between the two. Trump responded by calling Kasich "dumb" in a tweet, and Kasich shot back on a CNN interview just two weeks later.   


Haley Campaign: VP shortlist has three names
The search for Nikki Haley’s running mate has been narrowed to three people.
Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa -- Another woman, she brings military experience and is popular in a critical swing state. Concerns over having two women on the ticket raises worries among Haley’s campaign staff.
Fmr. Governor John Kasich of Ohio -- The former Presidential candidate has high favorables among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, and remains popular in his home state. Still, Haley seem reluctant to add one of her main primary challengers to the ticket. There is also the age concern, and whether Kasich would be able to seek his own term in 2028, if Haley where to win and also win re-election
Governor Chris Sununu of New Hampshire -- The young, popular Governor brings moderates to the ticket, while also not being too moderate to turn off conservatives nationwide. He also remains popular in a critical swing state. Still his relative lack of experience is cause for concern. It would also require Republicans to replace him on the 2020 ballot.

Polling Map: Haley vs Generic Dem

Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 165 Safe, 17 Likely, 35 Lean, 47.6%

Generic Democrat --169 Safe, 28 Likely, 15 Lean, 44.2%

Tossup -- 125

Other -- 1.1%

Undecided -- 7.1%

[Edgeofnight]

Next up, the Democratic Convention!

Should be up tomorrow or Saturday.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Awesome! Kander vs. Haley would be so great!

[Edgeofnight]

Part 21: Democratic National Convention, 2020

Day One: “Where we came from”

For the first time in what seemed like forever, the Democrats went into the convention without a clear nominee. Warren, Harris, and Kander had competed in all of the primaries, and Gabbard was openly seeking the nomination through unpledged delegates.

Day one opened with DNC chairman Tom Perez formally opening the convention. What followed was a series of speeches and performers, with a central theme of understanding America’s roots. There was also a focus on the War in Iraq and the 2008 recession. In short, the first day of the convention was broadly focused on the time before Obama became president. The notable first day of speakers included Fmr. First Lady Michelle Obama, Senators Kate McGinty and Russ Feingold, Performer Katy Perry, and Fmr. Secretary Hillary Clinton. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer gave the Party’s keynote address, discussing how much progress the Democratic Party has made in the past decade, as well as a personal meeting with a voter from Flint, MI, and how that impacted her. Her speech was well received, and considered the best of the night. 

Day Two: “Where We are Now”

The second day was when the fun began. Vice President Warren was nominated by Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), seconded by Senator Jeff Merkley (D-OR) and Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH). Senator Kander was nominated by Governor Allison Grimes (D-KY), seconded by Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT) and Congressman Tim Ryan (D-OH). Senator Harris was nominated by Congresswoman Terri Sewell (D-AL), Seconded by Congresswoman Jackie Speier (D-CA) and Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH). The other speakers, mostly from the activist wing of the party, where all mostly overshadowed by the coming chaos. The exact count was unclear, as superdelegates changed their support, and delegates from withdrawn candidates changed teams, but it was sure that Warren would finish first, with Harris close behind, and Kander in a not-so-distant third.The first ballot, done in its typical grandiose fashion, finished mostly as expected around 7pm.

DNC, 2020, Ballot 1:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,500
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,438
Sen. Jason Kander -- 1,189
Sen. Cory Booker -- 456
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 64
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 33
Sen. Maggie Hassan --  4
Abstain -- 79 Delegates

The second ballot was expedited, taking 47 minutes:

DNC, 2020, Ballot 2:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,490
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,448
Sen. Jason Kander -- 1,067
Sen. Cory Booker -- 431
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 187
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 63
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 50
Sen. Maggie Hassan --  4
Abstain -- 23

Gabbard had surged in the delegate count, mostly at the expense of Kander and withdrawn candidates. Warren had lost a few delegates, to be expected, but she held her ground and stayed in first. Harris crawled forward, lurching toward surpassing Warren. Fmr. Governor Terry McCauliffe was drafted as an attempt at a compromise candidate when he didn’t outright decline to be nominated. While there wasn’t much time for pundits to analyze the second ballot, one thing was clear: the party was heading away from unity, not towards it.

DNC 2020, Ballot 3:

2,382 Needed for the nomination
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,476
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,467
Sen. Jason Kander -- 980
Sen. Cory Booker -- 321
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 232
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 189
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 72
Abstain -- 27

Warren and Kander continued to bleed delegates. Harris made another crawl forward, and seemed poised to pass Warren on the fourth ballot. McAuliffe didn’t do much, with the candidate neither actively campaigning for nor against his nomination. Gabbard continued to corral support among reluctant Kander and Warren delegates. In the brief time between the second and third ballots, Gillibrand expressed her interest to several NY delegates about being nominated, and she had a small surge in the balloting.

DNC 2020 Ballot 4:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,486
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,450
Sen. Jason Kander -- 970
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 300
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 245
Sen. Cory Booker -- 186
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 106
Abstain -- 20

With the fourth ballot, Gillibrand and Gabbard both continued to jump up. The Kander campaign seemed to have mostly stopped the bleeding, losing only 10 delegates. Warren had finally falling to second place, with Harris now leading by 36 delegates. Booker’s oftenly repeated declinations caused many to finally give up on the draft movement for the New Jersey Senator.

DNC 2020, Ballot 5:

2,382 Needed for the nomination
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,490
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,434
Sen. Jason Kander -- 975
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 311
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 265
Sen. Cory Booker -- 170
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 100
Abstain -- 18

Warren’s campaign seemed to continue bleeding delegates, although the Kander campaign was beginning to reverse this trend. Harris’s campaign, for all practical matters, seemed to stay at the same place. Gabbard and Gillibrand both made gains, but neither was going anywhere rapidly. McAuliffe continued having minimal impact on the balloting process, losing 6 delegates.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 21: Democratic National Convention, 2020 (Part 2)

DNC 2020, Ballot 6:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,491
Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 1,440
Sen. Jason Kander -- 976
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 333
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 281
Sen. Cory Booker -- 117
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 107
Abstain -- 18

More of the same in ballot 6. Warren stopped bleeding delegates, and Gabbard and Gillibrand continued to slowly climb. Despite winning the popular vote in the primary, Harris struggled to climb higher in the delegate count. However, the biggest shift would happen between Ballots 6 and 7. Perhaps realizing that it was impossible to win the nomination, Senator Jason Kander withdrew from the balloting, and threw his support behind Warren. His delegates where enough, the seventh ballot determined the nominee:

DNC 2020, Ballot 7:
2,382 Needed for the nomination
✔ Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 2,400
Sen. Kamala Harris -- 1,491
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard -- 338
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 291
Sen. Cory Booker -- 100
Fmr. Gov. Terry McAuliffe -- 99
Sen. Jason Kander -- 26
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer -- 1
Abstain -- 18

Following the nomination of Warren, Senator Amy Klobuchar delivered a strong speech to the convention, but following the shocking conclusion to the nomination process, her speech was mostly overlooked. Governor Gavin Newsom also spoke on the second night, enthusiastically backing Warren, and delivering the generic call for unity
Senator Bernie Sanders closed out the night, congratulating Vice President Warren, and attacking presumptive Republican Nominee Nikki Haley. His speech was considered the most notable of the day. All of the speeches of the day focused on the accomplishments of the Biden and Obama administrations, the massive increases in healthcare and employment, the relative increase in global stability. Basically all the generic democrat talking points.

The Warren campaign had already vetted a number of vp candidates, and announcing overnight before the third day was considered the best choice. Still, even after clinching the nomination, Warren was torn between Senators Sherrod Brown and Mark Warner. Her choices where between another staunch Senate liberal, or a more establishment moderate candidate. After consulting with both men, she had her pick:

Vice President Elizabeth Warren announces VP pick: Virginia Senator Mark Warner

Day Three: “Where we want to be”

By day three, the excitement had mostly calmed down. Not only was the nomination decided, but many in the party felt defeated. Warren was not the choice of most democrats, but the party was still stuck with her anyway. It wasn’t that Democrats didn’t like Warren, its just that in contrast to the charisma of her primary challengers, and their more youthful energy, she was less inspiring. There was also the issue of her Vice Presidential pick. Many wanted Kamala Harris, who placed second in the primaries and won the popular vote in the nominating contests. Many Kander supporters felt that he deserved the number two spot, since he helped Warren win the nomination. Many also applauded her for “leaving the primaries behind” and picking a neutral party. Still, her strong liberal record appealed to the Democratic base, and that would have to be enough for Democrats if they wanted to win.

Notable Speakers on the third day included South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigeg, Illinois Governor Dan Biss, Fmr. President Barack Obama, and Joe Kennedy. The party was seeming to rally. The three speakers all gave positively received speeches, and Democrats seemed to be heading towards something resembling unity. Senator Warner was nominated by Acclamation, despite some reluctance from more liberal delegates.

Day Four: “How we get there.”

The fourth day carried a record of mixed emotion. This wasn’t helped by the fact that most notable speakers where former Presidential candidates. Cuomo, De Blasio, Gillibrand, Booker, Harris, and Kander, all laid out their visions for America’s future. One NBC analyst called it “The first day of the 2024 election." Each speaker endorsed Warren, and pledged to help her and other democrats to win nationwide. Still, that wasn’t enough to stop the image that each candidate was simply gaming their chances at the next cycle.

President Biden also addressed the convention. He praised Warren’s success as a mark of progress for the nation. He closed out his speech, one of the last of his political career, with a message for Democrats nationwide. “When I was growing up, no one could have imagined how far our country would have came. I’m proud of the role I’ve played in that effort. I’m proud of our accomplishments. Despite the opposition, despite the difficulties, we pushed on. And that’s what I want to leave you all with. Keep pushing forward.”

Warren addressed the convention on the final day. Her speech had three goals: Blast Haley, rally the party, and highlight her own record. In general, her speech was well received. She achieved all three goals to some degree of effectiveness. Many pundits felt she spent too much time attacking Haley and highlighting her liberal record. Her speech focused on her staunch liberal ideals, foreshadowing her general election strategy.

At the close of the Democratic Convention, the party was dragging its feet, but still moving towards the general election. The Haley campaign had gotten a head start, but Democrats were determined to catch up.

Governor Chris Sununu announced as Haley's running mate week before RNC.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Great posts! I'd be a reluctant Warren supporter, probably- she's the least exciting choice the Dems could've made, probably.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

The entire presidential ballot is from the East Coast!

[Edgeofnight]

The entire presidential ballot is from the East Coast!

East Coast Beast Coast

[Sestak]

The entire presidential ballot is from the East Coast!

East Coast Least Coast

FTFY. West Coast Best Coast.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

While I'd definitely be a Warren/Warner supporter, it would be pretty cool to see a Lebanese-Cuban-American person (Sununu) like me become Vice President

[Edgeofnight]

The entire presidential ballot is from the East Coast!

East Coast B[/i]east Coast

FTFY. West Coast Best Coast.

East Coast gave us Washington, West coast gave us Nixon. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

[Edgeofnight]

Part 22: Republican National Convention, 2020

By Contrast to the DNC, The Republican Convention was a foregone conclusion. Yes, Haley fell short of an absolute majority, but with the strong support from Rubio and Kasich, Haley was all but guaranteed to win the nomination on the first ballot. Still the prospect of the Republicans first female and first Minority nominee attracted major attention, and record breaking viewership.

Day One:

When Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel, the excitement was electric. After 12 years of Democratic rule, Rockefeller Republicans, Card-Carrying Conservatives, Tea Party Enthusiasts, and everything in between were ready to win. The speakers of the day reflected this. Governor Baker, Senators Pence and Paul, and Governor Gillespie all gave speeches on the first day. But the show stealer came from Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, who delivered the Keynote Address.

Cotton, a rising star of the Republican party, only passed on his own 2020 bid when Donald Trump entered the ring. In the primaries, he was a steadfast supporter of Mr. Trump, and only endorsed Haley once Mr. Trump and Governor Kasich had withdrawn. Still, he was one of the party’s “fresh faces,” and certainly had the ambition to match his popularity.

Cotton’s speech was framed around his idea of true Americanism. He focused on the “Dignity of Work.” He called the approach of Biden Administration “socialist in nature, trying to hold everyone’s hand.” He attacked the “rampant amnesty” of the Biden/Obama administrations, and called it “fundamentally degrading” regular Americans. He stated that the strength of Americans came from American Values, not the values of Europe, or Mexico, or Brazil. He railed against the acceptance of refugees, and tore into the Iran deal. He left no stone unturned. He attacked every piece of the “liberal agenda.” His speech truly emphasised why he was the poster child of the right wing. One CNN commentator called the speech “reactionary and authoritarian.” Still,  those at the Republican convention, and in right wing media, called it one of the best speeches of any convention, ever.

Day Two:

Day Two was uneventful. Haley was nominated by Congresswoman Mia Love (R-UT), and seconded by Senator Tom Scott (R-SC) and Governor Kim Reynolds (R-IA). Donald Trump was nominated by Fmr. Senator Scott Brown (R-MA/NH), and seconded by Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-CA) and Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (R-TN). Kasich was nominated by Senator Rob Portman, and seconded by Fmr. Governor Rick Snyder (R-MI) and Congresswoman Mary Taylor (R-OH). As expected, Haley won the nomination on the first ballot with around 60% of the delegates.

Notable speakers of the day included Senators Rubio (R-FL) and Fmr. Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA). Beyond that, Senator Ted Cruz Spoke (R-TX), once again playing the political game by endorsing Haley and feigning human empathy.

Day Three:

During day three, things got somewhat interesting. In between the formalities of nominating Sununu and Haley, other Republicans took time to jab at each other. Notably, Donald Trump and John Kasich.

Kasich addressed the convention first. His speech, mostly directed at the strength of the Republican Party, and attacking Elizabeth Warren, he made a jab at Donald Trump, saying that the Republican party “avoided another 2016 failure.” While his rehearsed speech was only 10 minutes in length, Trump delivered a 20 minute speech, spending most of the extra 10 minutes blaming Kasich for his defeat in 2016. The two once again continued their feud on morning talk shows.

Chris Sununu was nominated by acclamation. In his address to the convention, Sununu highlighted his own record, Haley’s record, and also an ambitious policy agenda that involves cutting taxes, deregulating the economy, and reinvigorating America’s image abroad. Despite being a “rising star” in the party, Sununu mostly just covered the generic Republican talking points. Still, the speech mostly well received. He tied his father and his heritage into the overall theme of the American Dream. Still, his speech served to be little more than a precursor to the next day.

Day Four:

Day Four was the day everyone was waiting for. The notable speakers included Brian Sandoval (R-NV), Congressman Will Hurd (R-TX), Former RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, and of course, Haley herself.

“With great humility, I accept your nomination for President, and I promise you all, we will win!”

With that closing, Haley was officially the 2020 Republican nominee. The first female presumptive nominee of any party. The first Female minority nominee from any major party. The first double minority presidential ticket. The first female vs female Presidential election. 2020 was truly an election that broke many historic norms, and barring a major upheaval, the next president would likely shatter the highest glass ceiling.

Polling:
Haley/Sununu -- 47.3%
Warren/Warner -- 42.5%
Other -- 2.1%
Undecided -- 8.1%
538’s 2020 Election Forecast: 53.2% Haley, 47.8% Warren

[OBD]

The entire presidential ballot is from the East Coast!

East Coast B[/i]east Coast

FTFY. West Coast Best Coast.

East Coast gave us Washington, West coast gave us Nixon. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

hissssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

[Edgeofnight]

Part 24: August, 2020
Maps denote number of campaign stops in each state. Darker colors denote a greater focus.

The general election campaign took off in August of 2020. One side, led by two young minorities, focused their stump speech on those the economy has left behind. The other side, two older white people, focused on the strengths of the status quo. The Republican party’s strategy was not to argue that there hadn’t been economic growth, rather that economic growth hadn’t beyond the select few in states like California, New York, and Massachusetts. The campaign adopted a vaguely populist rhetoric similar to Donald Trump, without his controversy and with a lot more polish. Haley focused her campaign on middle America. Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, etc. Georgia, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and other southern swing states were important, but placed on a second tier compared to the Industrial Midwest. Sununu played a more independent role. While Haley toured the midwest, Sununu hit the North East. Pennsylvania (again), New Hampshire and Maine where the key targets, but the occasional appearance in Rural Massachusetts and Connecticut where not out of the question. It wasn’t that the Haley Campaign thought they could make a play at all of these states, MA and CT were safely in the Democratic category. But it created the image of confidence, and that was the Haley/Sununu campaign’s goal. Still, it couldn’t be ignored that the Northeast was opening up to Republicans. All of the region, except Vermont and Massachusetts, had trended towards the Republican party in 2016, and all New England Governors were Republicans. Keeping margins lower in New England would help Haley ensure she doesn’t lose the popular vote, and that was massively important to her personally.

Warren’s campaign, by contrast, didn’t bother trying to “extend” their electoral victory. Biden had won comfortably in 2016, and keeping that map would be enough of a challenge for Warren. Her strategy focused on winning the swing states Biden had carried. Her campaign hit most of the same midwestern states that Haley hit, but also made winning the South a key priority. Most of Warner’s time was spent in North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida. Warren hit the midwest, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Her strategy focused on hitting the urban centers in each state. Detroit, Toledo, Columbus, Saint Louis, etc. All of these cities featured at least two stops by the Warren campaign. Warren’s advisors didn’t think she’d win over suburban or rural voters, so for the most part they didn’t try. They left those voters to Warner and other surrogates and down ballot candidates.

The strategy of each campaign drew criticism. Democrats accused Haley’s strategy as divisive, while Warren was often accused of “pandering” while on the campaign trail. August did prove definiative in proving something: The election would be decided in the rust belt. This concerned most within the Democratic party, even if they didn’t show it. The region had been trending R in recent years, and at the statewide level, Republican held complete control of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Indiana. Democrats had captured the Governorship in Kentucky, but Republicans maintained control over both chambers in the state house. Warren and Haley where polling even with each other at the start of the month in both Ohio and Pennsylvania, while Warren led in Michigan. At the end of the month, Warren maintained a slight edge in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and that gave her a cushion in the electoral college. The question became whether or not she could hold that lead.


Polling, August 2020.

Haley/Sununu -- 46.8%
Warren/Warner -- 43.3%
Other -- 1.7%
Undecided -- 8.2%
538’s 2020 Election Forecast: 50.6% Warren, 49.2% Haley, .2% No electoral winner.

Next part will be the 2020 Senate Ratings.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 23: Races to Watch: Battle for Control of the US Senate, 2020.
From, Politico.

In 2018, Republicans won a net of five seats, taking control of the senate. Should they win the presidency, Democrats would need to win four seats to flip the chamber. The following are races that are competitive, or could become competitive.

2014 was a Republican wave, with Republicans winning a net of nine seats. Five Democratic incumbents were defeated, and Republicans picked up four other open seats. Democrats will have to win back some of these seats to take control of the chamber.

In 2020, the Democratic party sought to make lighting strike twice. Recognizing that their 2016 victory was due to, in part, the strength of their candidates, the DSCC worked to recruit their top candidates in every race they could find. For the most part, they found success.




Arizona (Special):
In Arizona, incumbent Republican Jeff DeWit was appointed following the passing of the late Senator John McCain. He is seeking re-election. The Democrats nominated former state Rep Matt Heinz. The race is considered a toss up, and both sides are investing heavily into the race.
 
Colorado:
In Colorado, incumbent Republican Senator Cory Gardner is seeking re-election to a second term. Democrats have nominated Fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper as their candidate.Gardner’s poor approval ratings, and Colorado’s increasingly Democratic lean, has lead the race to be rated as Lean D.

Georgia:
In Georgia, Incumbent Republican Senator David Perdue is seeking re-election to a second term. His Democratic challenger is State Rep. Scott Holcomb.  Despite Georgia's Republican lean, the state has been trending Democratic in recent years, and was lost narrowly by President Biden in 2016. These two factors have led to the race being considered a tossup.

Iowa:
In Iowa, incumbent Republican Senator Joni Ernst is seeking re-election to a second term in office. The Democratic nominee is State Senator Robb Hogg. Hogg has performed well on the campaign trail, but Ernst’s fundraising has dwarfed his. The race is rated Likely R.

Kentucky:
In Kentucky, Senator and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is retiring. Fmr. Governor Matt Bevin won the Republican primary to replace McConnell. He is facing Jack Conway in a rematch of the 2015 Gubernatorial election. The race is rated as Lean R.

Maine:
In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collin is retiring. The Republican nominee is former State Senator Eric Brakey, while the Democrats nominated former State Rep Jared Golden. The race is rated as a toss up. With RCV not implemented until next year, the race will use FPTP.

Minnesota:
In Minnesota, incumbent Democratic Senator Tina Smith is seeking re-election to a full term in office. She is unopposed in the Democratic Primary. Republicans have nominated their 2018 nominee Karin Housley. The race is rated as Lean D.

Montana:
In Montana, incumbent Republican Senator Steve Daines is seeking re-election to a second term in office. His Democratic challenger is popular incumbent Governor Steve Bullock. Bullock’s personal popularity has made this a top Democratic target. Polling indicates a competitive race, and its rated as a tossup.

New Hampshire:
In New Hampshire, incumbent Senator Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. The Democratic nominee to replace her is her daughter and City Councilor Stefany Shaheen. The Republican nominee was Fmr. U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte, however she was chosen to replace Sununu as the Gubernatorial nominee. Ayotte was replaced by Fmr. U.S. Senator Scott Brown. The race is rated as a tossup.

North Carolina:
In North Carolina, incumbent Republican Thom Tillis is running for a second term in office. He is facing Democrat and rising star Jeff Jackson in the general election. Polling has the two in a dead heat, and the race is rated as a toss up.

Virginia:
In Virginia, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner is retiring to run for Vice President. The Democratic nominee is Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, while the Republicans have nominated Lt. Governor Jill Vogel. The race is rated as Lean D, given Virginia’s increasingly Democratic Lean in recent years.

West Virginia:
In West Virginia, Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito is seeking re-election to a second term in office. Democrats have nominated former State Senator Richard Ojeda as their candidate. Despite being a solid Republican State athe the presidential level, Ojeda has been polling competitively, and the race is rated Lean R.

After posting, the Democratic Nominee in Georgia was changed from Jason Carter to Scott Holcomb because on second thought I think Holcomb is more likely to run than Carter.

[Edgeofnight]

100th update woot woot. For those wondering, I plan on restarting Your America, Your Vote this Friday, so stay tuned for that. I also have another side project that should be going up this week or next.