Beau Lives: 2019 - 2029

[Edgeofnight]

February 12th, 2019

President Biden: "I will not seek re-election in 2020"


More Soon

Author's note: The only images that are my own are my maps and infoboxes. Any images of particular candidates are not mine, and the image belongs to their respective owners.

[Former Senator Haslam2020]

Mmm

[Lord Admirale]

Yes

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[WestVegeta]

Let's goooooo

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

[Edgeofnight]

Part One: Warren vs Pence, the early front runners.

February 19th, 2019



One week since President Biden’s bombshell announcement, Vice President Elizabeth Warren has declared her presidential bid. With her entry, Warren captures the title of front runner for the Democrats, leading the national polling with 28% of likely voters. Currently, she is the sole Democrat in the race, but the field is widely expected to expand.

On the Republican side, Senator Mike Pence remains the early Republican frontrunner. The party’s 2016 Vice Presidential nominee, the Governor-turned-Senator leads the Republican Party in early polling. However, having recently taken office in the United States Senate, it seems unlikely that Pence will enter the race. He polls at 15% of likely Republican voters across the nation. Currently, two Republicans are running, Senator Ted Cruz and former Alabama judge Roy Moore.

During the 2016 Presidential election, Warren and Pence where their respective party's Vice Presidential Nominees. Pence was widely viewed as the winner of the sole Vice Presidential debate. In a hypothetical 2020 matchup, Senator Pence leads by 2 points over the Vice President.




Hypothetical Polling

Democratic Presidential Primaries

Vice President Warren -- 28%
Senator Bernie Sanders --  20%
Senator Kamala Harris -- 18%
Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton -- 12%
Senator Cory Booker -- 8%
Governor Andrew Cuomo -- 8%
Senator Jason Kander -- 2%
Senator Russ Feingold -- 2%
Senator Maggie Hassan -- 1%
Fmr. Congressman Seth Moulton -- 1%
Fmr. Governor Jerry Brown -- 1%

Republican Presidential Primaries

Senator Pence -- 15%
Senator Ted Cruz -- 12%
Fmr. Governor John Kasich -- 12%
Senator Ben Sasse -- 10%
Speaker Paul Ryan -- 10%
Donald Trump -- 9%
Senator Marco Rubio -- 8%
Senator Tom Cotton -- 7%
Governor Charlie Baker -- 5%
Governor Matt Bevin -- 5%
Senator Rand Paul -- 4%
Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley -- 3%
Congressman Justin Amash -- 2%



Unlike my other timelines, there will be a schedule for this timeline. Monday and Wednesday will have parts that are set in 2019 and the future. Friday Parts will be set in the gap between 2015, the point of divergence, and 2019, covering things such as the 2016 Primaries, the Biden Administration, midterms, Supreme Courts nominations, etc.

[Lord Admirale]

Ooh

[Edgeofnight]

Part Two: Crowded fields suggest divided parties

Later in the month, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo declared his presidential bid. The two term governor of New York was recently elected to a third term, and maintains high approval ratings at home, although he has little name recognition outside of his home state.

April came with an explosion of Presidential candidates. Senator Cory Booker and Fmr. Governor Nikki Haley both declared their presidential bids on the same day. The New Jersey senator was widely seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party, while the former South Carolina Governor was criticized by Bevin as “the darling of the establishment.”

In the second week of April, two more rising democrats would declare their own presidential bids. Senators Kirsten Gillibrand and Kamala Harris would both enter the presidential fray. Both coming from two Strongly Democratic States, both drew comparisons to Fmr. Secretary Clinton, who had ruled herself out of the race months prior.

Former Florida Governor Rick Scott would enter the race next, running on a record of eight years of governing as a “principled conservative” and recovery from Hurricane Irma. He would be joined shortly by Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. The Wisconsin governor claimed that he withdrew prematurely from the 2016 contest, and when asked, said he could have defeated Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

[i

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In the final week of April, three more candidates declared their candidacies. First, Former Ohio Governor John Kasich. Since his 2016 loss, John Kasich had been around the country preaching his message of unity and his view of “true conservatism.” The next day, New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio would declare his own presidential bid, seemingly undeterred by the presence of more “prominent” New Yorkers. Finally, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum would launch a third presidential bid.

The first week of May would not be defined by the number of candidates, rather the candidates themselves. Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s 2016 nominee, declared his third presidential bid. A platform almost identical to his 2016 platform, Trump promised to “fight harder and win bigger.”

Trump would not be the only democrat to enter the race in May. Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker entered the race on a platform of common sense and working together.  Democratic New Hampshire Senator Maggie Hassan would enter the race next, running on a platform of liberal credentials and experience.

The end of May would bring in three more rising stars from both parties. First,  Missouri Senator Jason Kander. At 39 years old, he would be the youngest president ever to hold office, and his liberal record and military background propelled him to national prominence. Fellow Senator Ben Sasse would declare shortly after him. Strongly Anti-Trump, and strongly Conservative, the first term Nebraska Senator styled himself as the chief critic to the Biden administration. Former HUD Secretary Julian Castro would also announce a presidential bid in his native San Antonio, claiming to be the candidate for a new Generation of Americans. Old favorite Martin O’Malley, having previously served as Secretary of Homeland Security in the Biden Administration, the former Maryland Governor and Baltimore Mayor was also a candidate in the 2016 Presidential election.

With June, two new Republicans entered the race. Early in the month, Senator Marco Rubio announced his second presidential bid, once again putting the senator into national spotlight. Texas Governor Greg Abbott would launch his first national campaign, with a high approval rating in the largest Republican stronghold, Abbott seemed like an obvious candidate.  The second to last democrat to enter the race came from the Aloha state. Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard made national headlines in 2016 by becoming the first and only prominent democrat to endorse Senator Bernie Sander’s short lived presidential campaign.

In July, the final serious presidential candidates would launch their bids. First, former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas chose to announce his third presidential bid on the Fourth of July. The second week of the month, Carly Fiorina and Congressman Steve King would both declare bids for the Republican nomination. The final Republican and final Democrat would both declare on the same day. Former Governors Rick Snyder and John Hickenlooper would both announce their bids for president on July 29th, 2019. And with that, the presidential fields would be set. 13 Democrats and 18 Republicans in the largest presidential field in history.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

[America Needs R'hllor]

Wow, these fields. Go Kander!

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Wow, these fields. Go Kander!

[Edgeofnight]

Special: Early Preparations





November 5th, 2014, was not a good night to be a Democrat, especially one in the Obama administration.  Republicans had surged to power, retaking the senate for the first time in almost a decade, and growing their house majority to the largest it had been since 1928.  While the public was still processing the results of 2014, the big names in the Democratic Party were already preparing for 2016. Shadow campaigns were already being ran by a number of candidates, but all eyes were on two people: Vice President Biden and Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The two biggest names in the Democratic Party, both exploring runs for president. But for the two, exploring had radically different meanings. While both Clinton and Biden had been fundraising, Clinton had an already established grassroots network, and had hired much of the Democratic talent. But the issue was even more fundamental. Despite being the President’s right hand man, Biden was far less connected within the party than Hillary. She had been building alliances on a national level since her time as First Lady.

Though Biden’s inner circle was undeterred. Behind the scenes, Steve Ricchetti, a former Clinton staffer and the Chief of Staff to Vice President Biden, and Ted Kaufman, and long time Biden aid and personal friend, were already forming a campaign infrastructure and strategy. They weren't the only ones involved on the Biden 2016 campaign. Ron Klain, Tom and Mike Donilon, Shailagh Murray, and Valerie Biden-Owens made up the top level of the Biden campaign.

The strategy was also forming. Biden needed to win Iowa. Without it, the nomination would be out of reach. The Biden campaign believed that if they could win 3 out of 4 of the first primaries, they could lock up the nomination early. But, the general consensus was that if they didn’t win at least Iowa, the campaign would be dead on arrival.

[Sestak]

Wow, these fields. Go Kander!

[Edgeofnight]

Part Three: Republicans spar in the first debate.


The stage was St. Louis, Missouri. Site of the 2020 RNC. 17 of the 18 Republicans qualified, two debates. The “undercard” debate featured the bottom 9 candidates, while the “main event” featured the top 8. The placements were determined by average polling standing in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nationally.

The 9 invited to the undercard debate where, from lowest position to highest position; Rick Snyder, Steve King, Rick Santorum,  Mike Huckabee, Rick Scott, Charlie Baker, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul and Nikki Haley. Paul and Scott refused to attend anything but the main stage debate. Their requests were denied. 

The chief issues of the debate were healthcare, Conservative Values, leadership, experience, and foreign policy.  When asked if the candidates would support a full repeal of Obamacare, the responses ranged from an enthusiastic “yes” to a flat “no.” All candidates agreed that Obamacare was broken, but none really presented a solution. Baker, the most moderate candidate on the stage, called for a repeal of the individual and a change to the business mandates, and cited the state of Massachusetts success as an example of a health care working correctly. His position, of a “soft” repeal, came out as the most controversial position of the healthcare debate, and set the stage for the rest of the night. Baker, the moderate, technocratic governor of a deep blue state, was an easy target for the rest of the stage. Still, Baker kept composure, and the constant attacks afforded him multiple replies and kept him in the spotlight most of the night. These two factors led many voters to christen Baker as the winner of the night. Other notable performances came from former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, and Carly Fiorina. All three would experience bumps in the polls following the debate. The worst performance of the night came from Rick Santorum. Voters polled after the event used the words “unfocused and unprepared” to describe Rick Santorum. Comedian Stephen Colbert described it as “inane rambling.”

The main event went differently. The eight invited, in order of lowest position to highest position, where Matt Bevin, Greg Abbott, Ben Sasse, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, John Kasich and Ted Cruz.

The focus of the debate was meant to be healthcare, leadership, general election viability, and foreign policy. However, much of the debate was derailed by character attacks from Trump and Bevin, lobbed at almost every other candidate on stage. Kasich was attacked by Trump over his refusal to endorse him in 2016. Bevin attacked Cruz over the “vote your conscious” line at the RNC. Kasich fired back, calling Trump and Bevin “children” and said “A country where Donald Trump is President is not one I want to live in. Period.” Cruz fired back, saying that Bevin and Trump were trying to distract from the real issues. Even Sasse and Rubio joined in, with the former saying Bevin and Trump didn’t have the maturity to lead.  The ones who stayed out of the character attacks where Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Though that helped their favorability, it meant they didn’t get a lot of attention during the debate.  Most polls after the debate had Kasich, Sasse, and Rubio as the winners. Cruz and Bevin’s performances were rated poorly, while Trump, Abbott, and Walker were rated as neutral.

Following the debates, Trump responded on Twitter

Between the first and second debates, Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, Roy Moore, Steve King, Rick Scott, and Rick Snyder would suspend their campaigns. Santorum, Moore, and King endorsed Trump, while Scott endorsed Rubio, and Snyder endorsed Kasich.


Republican Party Polling: National, August 2019 (post Debate)

Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 14%
Sen. Ted Cruz -- 12%
Mr. Donald Trump -- 10%
Sen. Ben Sasse -- 10%
Sen. Marco Rubio -- 9%
Gov. Greg Abbott -- 8%
Gov. Scott Walker -- 6%
Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 6%
Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
Gov. Charlie Baker -- 5%
Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 4%
Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
Others/Undecided -- 9%

[Edgeofnight]

This will be the largest primary field of the timeline, so luckily we won't have quite the clown car in the future.

Wow, these fields. Go Kander!

Seems like Kander is the most popular candidate in the field. Interesting...

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Wow, these fields. Go Kander!

Kander is the most popular

[BuckeyeNut]

Kander 5ever.

[Edgeofnight]

Part Four: Democrats do it differently.

Des Moines, Iowa. The first Democratic debates. Two weeks following the Republican debate. Democrats did their debates differently. Rather than tier by polling, debates were randomized, with the field split in half.  The first debate, held August 13th, featured Kamala Harris, Andrew Cuomo, Seth Moulton, John Hickenlooper, Elizabeth Warren, Martin O’Malley, and Cory Booker.  The second debate, held August 20th, featured Julian Castro, Jason Kander, Tulsi Gabbard,  Bill De Blasio, Maggie Hassan, and Kirsten Gillibrand.


Both debates ran for two hours. The issues of the debate where healthcare, military spending, infrastructure spending, climate change, gun control, Russia, Terror Abroad, and the Resurgence of ISIS.

For the first debate. the biggest clash came over health care. What would each candidate fix about healthcare? Warren, Moulton, and Hickenlooper clashed over single-payer. Warren, a fierce advocate for socialized healthcare and “Medicare-for-all” was met with resistance from the former Congressman and Governor. She found an unlikely ally in the New Jersey Senator, who also voiced his support for single-payer healthcare, despite his ties to the pharmaceutical industry. Senator Kamala Harris also voiced her support for single payer, although she also expressed support for a public option. Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley and Hickenlooper called, broadly, for a “stabilization” of Medicare and Medicaid before talks of adopting an expanded healthcare system. Cuomo tried to paint Warren’s proposal as “nothing more than higher taxes and longer wait times for medicine people desperately need.” The New York Governor did say that he would support single payer if it could be done in a tax neutral way.

Cuomo’s position came across as flip-floppy. He had, when running for reelection in 2018, expressed support for a single payer system. When attacked on this, Cuomo tried to justify it saying that New York State had a more efficient and balanced economy than the nation as a whole, and that what works for New York won’t work for the entire nation. But the position was characterized as “Republican-lite,”  and the Governor’s overall performance was characterized as “robotic” and “uninspiring”, contrasted with the passion of Warren and Harris, and the charisma of Booker, made Cuomo the night's big loser. He was joined in the losers club by Seth Moulton, who spoke the least and felt out of place in the debate between top tier candidates. Also in the loser’s club was John Hickenlooper, who, after engaging Warren on healthcare, mostly kept quiet the rest of the night. He traded barbs with Harris over the issue of experience, and Booker over foreign policy, but ultimately went unnoticed throughout the rest of the night. The last member of the losers club was Martin O’Malley. His performance was bland and uninspiring. His main message was that he was the most ready candidate for the office, citing his two terms as governor and his tenure at the Department of Homeland Security. This message didn’t resonate well with voters, and most of O’Malley’s policy statements came across as vague or uninformed. The biggest winner of the night was Cory Booker. The rising star had more charisma than all of his opponents, and this helped him capture the attention of voters across America. The runner up of the night was fellow Senator Kamala Harris. While she lacked Booker’s charisma, voters rated her as the most “genuine” of the candidates on stage. In the middle was the Vice President, who was overshined by her younger challengers.

The other Democratic debate, featuring Julian Castro, Jason Kander, Tulsi Gabbard, Bill De Blasio, Maggie Hassan, and Kirsten Gillibrand, was similarly structured.

The issue of experience dominated the night. Readiness to be president was a regularly asked question. Kander, 39 years old, was a first term senator, Tulsi Gabbard, 39, a five term congresswoman, and Julian Castro, 47, a former HUD secretary, all tried to spin their youth as a strength, but it opened them up to questions about if they were ready to handle the office of President. Maggie Hassan, a Senator and former Governor, argued that it didn’t, and played her experience off as making her uniquely qualified to hold the office. Gillibrand argued that her experience in Congress was just as, if not more valuable, than Hassan’s experience as a Governor, since it gave her a deeper understanding of “national issues and policy.” Bill De Blasio argued that his tenure overseeing America’s largest city was more “impressive” than Hassan governing a state of 1.5 million people.

Jason Kander, the liberal swing-state senator, dominated the night. The most charismatic of the candidates, Kander’s youth and military background helped his favorability among voters. Similarly impressive was Tulsi Gabbard’s performance. The controversial Hawaii congresswoman attracted attention for her enthusiastic support of Bernie Sanders, but her past policy positions, and her foreign policy positions, particularly her position on Syria, made her a target of attack on the stage. Senators Maggie Hassan and Kirsten Gillibrand walked away mostly as they had entered. The losers of the night, Julian Castro and Bill De Blasio, both lost for different reasons. While Castro provided a “youthful energy”, most respondents felt that he hadn’t adequately explained why he was experienced enough to become President. While Bill De Blasio talked about his experience running one of America’s economic hubs, that was all he brought to the table. Voters felt the New York City Mayor was not prepared to deal with the intricacies of Foreign Policy.

Trump, as is tradition, responded on Twitter, attacking his Democratic rivals.

Between the first two and the next debates, Andrew Cuomo, Bill De Blasio, and Seth Moulton suspended their campaigns. Cuomo declined to make an endorsement, while Seth Moulton endorsed Jason Kander and Bill De Blasio endorsed Kirsten Gillibrand.

[Sestak]

Jason Kander, the liberal swing-state senator, dominated the night. The most charismatic of the candidates, Kander’s youth and military background helped his favorability among voters.

Similarly impressive was Tulsi Gabbard’s performance.

[Edgeofnight]

General Election Polling: Warren, Harris, Booker, against Cruz, Kasich, Trump

Warren vs. Republicans

• Warren 44%, Cruz 45%, Undecided/Others 11%
• Warren 40%, Kasich 44%, Undecided/Others 16%
• Warren 45%, Trump 42%, Undecided/Others 13%

Booker vs. Republicans

• Booker 43%, Cruz 42%, Undecided/Others 15%
• Booker 43%, Kasich 43%, Undecided/Others 14%
• Booker 46%, Trump 40%, Undecided/Others 14%

Harris vs. Republicans

• Harris 43%, Cruz 43%, Undecided/Others 14%
• Harris 44%, Kasich 46%, Undecided/Others 10%
• Harris 45%, Trump 42%, Undecided/Others 13%

[Edgeofnight]

Iowa and New Hampshire polling gives edge to Warren, Hassan, and Cruz, Kasich, Booker Trails Warren Nationwide.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 5%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 2%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro --1%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Iowa Republican Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 16%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 13%
• Sen. Sasse -- 13%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 11%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 10%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 2%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Fmr. Sec Martin O'Malley -- 4%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. Hickenlooper -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- August 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 22%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 17%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 13%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 18%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 4%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 18%

[Edgeofnight]

Special: Biden declares Presidential Bid, enters primary against Clinton and Sanders

May 30th, 2015



Vice President Joe Biden declared his Presidential bid from the White House Rose Garden, announcing alongside his wife Jill that he would be entering the race to be the Democratic Nominee. The announcement comes after months of speculation. Since the 2014 midterms, the Vice President has made numerous trips to Iowa and New Hampshire, giving speeches and campaigning for local candidates. Current polling has the Vice President placing second in the Democratic Primaries, trailing secretary Clinton 38% to 30%.


This special was short, so I figured I would put it up tonight and then put on a regular part on Friday.

[BuckeyeNut]

Trump calling Mario Cuomo part of the mob would turn me from a rabid hater of Andrew Cuomo into a top supporter. What an effing asshole.

[Medal506]

Iowa and New Hampshire polling gives edge to Warren, Hassan, and Cruz, Kasich, Booker Trails Warren Nationwide.

Iowa Democratic Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Elizabeth Warren -- 20%
• Sen. Elizabeth Gillibrand -- 15%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 13%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 9%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 7%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 5%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 2%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro --1%
• Undecided/Others -- 13%

Iowa Republican Caucus -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 16%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 13%
• Sen. Sasse -- 13%
• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 11%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 10%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 7%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 6%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 5%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 2%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov Huckabee -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 9%

New Hampshire Democratic Primary -- August 2019 Polling

• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 21%
• Vice President Warren -- 14%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 12%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Fmr. Sec Martin O'Malley -- 4%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. Hickenlooper -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 10%

New Hampshire Republican Primary-- August 2019 Polling

• Fmr. Gov. John Kasich -- 22%
• Mr. Donald Trump -- 17%
• Gov. Charlie Baker -- 13%
• Sen. Marco Rubio -- 10%
• Sen. Ted Cruz -- 8%
• Sen. Ben Sasse -- 5%
• Gov. Scott Walker -- 4%
• Gov. Greg Abbott -- 4%
• Gov. Matt Bevin -- 3%
• Fmr. Gov. Nikki Haley -- 3%
• Sen. Rand Paul -- 2%
• Fmr. Gov. Mike Huckabee -- 2%
• Mrs. Carly Fiorina -- 1%
• Undecided/Others -- 11%

National Democratic Primaries -- August 2019 Polling

• Vice President Warren -- 18%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 14%
• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Kristen Gillibrand -- 10%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 8%
• Sen. Maggie Hassan -- 7%
• Rep. Tulsi Gabbard -- 4%
• Fmr. Gov. John Hickenlooper -- 4%
• Fmr. Sec. Martin O'Malley -- 3%
• Fmr. Sec. Julian Castro -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 18%

If Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire this time is it possible he drops out of the race completely