Beau Lives: 2019 - 2029

[Edgeofnight]

10:55PM

Florida (90% Reporting) -- Called for Haley
Haley/Sununu -- 51.2%
Warren/Warner -- 47.2%
Stein/Kreml -- .9%
Dunn/Petersen -- .5%
Other -- .2%

Excerpt from Champion for the People by Elizabeth Warren

Around the time Florida was called, things were looking bleak. I was watching the results come in with my family and Mark’s family. At this point, it was all but decided that the Republicans would keep control of Congress, even if things turned around for our campaign, Republicans would control the levers of power in Washington. Over the course of the next hour, things would only get worse.

Electoral Vote:
Warren/Warner -- 212
Haley/Sununu -- 125

Senate:
Republicans -- 49 Seats
Democrats -- 41 Seats
10 Seats Uncalled

Governorships:
Republicans -- 31
Democrats -- 11
8  Seats Uncalled

[Edgeofnight]

I've been working on a term paper for the past few days, which is why updates have been slow. It will be turned in at midnight, so tomorrow updates will resume at normal speed.

[Edgeofnight]

11:07PM

Iowa (30% Reporting) -- Called for Haley
Haley/Sununu -- 55.3%
Warren/Warner -- 41.9%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.8%
Dunn/Petersen -- 1.0%

Iowa Senate (30% Reporting)  -- Republican Hold
Joni Ernst -- 59.4%
Rob Hogg -- 39.3%
Other -- 1.3%

[Sestak]

212-210 with CA, WA out would mean a Warren win was practically guaranteed. Did you mean 110?

[Edgeofnight]

212-210 with CA, WA out would mean a Warren win was practically guaranteed. Did you mean 110?

Maybe. Thanks for the catch.

[Edgeofnight]

11:13PM


Georgia Senate (70% Reporting) -- Republican Hold
David Perdue -- 52.9%
Scott Holcomb -- 47.0%
Other -- .1%

11:20PM

Georgia (73% Reporting) -- Called for Haley
Haley/Sununu -- 51.6%
Warren/Warner -- 46.0%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.0%
Dunn/Petersen -- 1.0%
Other -- .4%

[Edgeofnight]

11:30PM

New Hampshire (50% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Haley/Sununu -- 49.6%
Warren/Warner -- 48.7%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.0%
Dunn/Petersen -- .7%


New Hampshire Senate Election (50% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Stefany Shaheen -- 49.5%
Scott Brown -- 49.3%
Other -- 1.2%

New Hampshire Gubernatorial Election
Kelly Ayotte -- 50.0%
Steve Marchand -- 48.7%
Other -- 1.3%

Michigan (56% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Warren/Warner -- 49.4%
Haley/Sununu -- 49.0%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.0%
Dunn/Petersen -- .6%

Pennsylvania (51% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Warren/Warner -- 49.2%
Haley/Sununu -- 49.1%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.0%
Dunn/Petersen -- .7%

Arizona (46% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Haley/Sununu -- 50.3%
Warren/Warner -- 47.4%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.4%
Dunn/Petersen -- .9%

Michigan Senate (56% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Gary Peters -- 51.2%
Candice Miller -- 48.8%

North Carolina Senate (65% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Jeff Jackson -- 49.7%
Thom Tillis --  49.6%
Other -- .6%

Arizona Senate (47% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Jeff DeWit -- 50.3%
Matt Heinz -- 49.2%
Other -- .5%

[Edgeofnight]

11:35PM

North Carolina (68% Reporting) -- Called for Haley
Haley/Sununu -- 50.6%
Warren/Warner -- 47.6%
Stein/Kreml -- .9%
Dunn/Petersen -- .8%
Other -- .15

11:46PM

Michigan Senate (60% Reporting) -- Democratic Hold
Gary Peters -- 52.0%
Candice Milller -- 48.0%

11:53PM

North Carolina Gubernatorial Election (71% Reporting) -- Democratic Hold
Roy Cooper -- 50.9%
Pat McCroy -- 48.1%
Other -- 1.0%

Electoral Vote:
Haley/Sununu -- 246
Warren/Warner -- 210

[Edgeofnight]

12:30AM

Pennsylvania (65% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Haley/Sununu -- 49.2%
Warren/Warner -- 49.0%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.1%
Dunn/Petersen -- .7%

Wisconsin (69% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Haley/Sununu -- 53.2%
Warren/Warner -- 44.1%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.5%
Dunn/Petersen -- .9%
Other -- .3%

Michigan (72% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Warren/Warner -- 49.6%
Haley/Sununu -- 48.7%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.1%
Dunn/Petersen -- .5%
Other -- .1%

Minnesota (55% Reporting)  -- Too Close to Call
Warren/Warner -- 49.3%
Haley/Sununu -- 48.1%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.7%
Dunn/Petersen -- .6%
Other -- .3%

Nevada (65% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Warren/Warner -- 49.5%
Haley/Sununu -- 47.1%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.5%
Dunn/Petersen -- 1.2%
Other -- .7%

New Hampshire (60% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Haley/Sununu -- 49.4%
Warren/Warner -- 48.5%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.4%
Dunn/Petersen -- .7%

New Hampshire Senate (60% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Stefany Shaheen -- 49.7%
Scott Brown -- 49.0%
Other -- 1.3%

North Carolina Senate (80% Reporting)  -- Too Close to Call
Thom Tillis -- 49.7%
Jeff Jackson -- 49.7%
Other -- .6%

Maine Senate (51% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Jared Golden -- 50.0%
Eric Barkey -- 49.8%
Other -- .2%

Minnesota Senate (56% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Tina Smith -- 50.3%
Richard Painter -- 49.4%
Other -- 1.3%

Arizona Senate (59% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Jeff DeWit -- 50.0%
Matt Heinz -- 49.6%
Other -- .4%

Montana Senate (50% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Steve Bullock -- 50.3%
Steve Daines -- 48.3%
Other -- 1.4%

Montana Gubernatorial (50% Reporting) -- Too Close to Call
Greg Gianforte -- 49.8%
Anglea McLean -- 49.7%
Other -- .5%

New Hampshire Gubernatorial (60% Reporting) -- Republican Hold
Kelly Ayotte -- 51.0%
Steve Marchand -- 47.7%
OTher -- 1.3%

[Edgeofnight]

12:47AM

Maine (59% Reporting) -- Split Call (3 Haley, 1 Warren)
Haley/Sununu -- 49.7%
Warren/Warner -- 48.2%
Dunn/Petersen -- 1.0%
Stein/Kreml -- .9%
Other -- .2%

[Edgeofnight]

12:56AM

Wisconsin (73% Reporting) -- Called for Haley
Haley/Sununu -- 51.2%
Warren/Warner -- 46.0%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.2%
Dunn/Petersen -- 1.1%
Other -- .5%

[Edgeofnight]

Part 30: Shattered

1:32AM

Pennsylvania (80% Reporting) -- Called for Haley
Haley/Sununu -- 49.9%
Warren/Warner -- 48.0%
Stein/Kreml -- 1.3%
Dunn/Petersen -- .8%

AP: Warren Calls to concede, Republican Nikki Haley is the President-elect.
Madam President:
November 3rd, 2020

With the call in Pennsylvania, Vice President Elizabeth Warren conceded the Presidential Race to fmr. South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who has become the nation's first female President-elect. In her concession speech, Warren said that she was proud that “Across this nation, every little girl, regardless of skin color, will see that they too can be president.”

In her victory speech, Haley congratulated Warren on a hard fought campaign, and spoke to Warren’s own accomplishments throughout her career. She also promised to be a uniting figure among Americans, and pledged to be “a President for all.”

And that's the 2020 Presidential election. I'm not 100% satisfied with how this turned out, as a lot of you noticed their where many sloppy mistakes. It was a good learning experience of how to do this better in 2024 and 2028. Next few updates will cover some housekeeping stuff with regards to the Senate, Governors, etc. We will cover the first major piece of the Biden Administration,then we move into transitional stuff before the Biden Administration ends.

[Edgeofnight]

2020 Summary, pt. 1
Notable Races:

In Alabama, Mayor Tommy Battle held the open seat for Republicans against Democrat Jason Fisher, 69.7% to 28.0%

Result: R Hold

In Arizona, no winner has been declared yet, but incumbent Republican Jeff DeWit leads Democratic challenger Matt Heinz 49.8 to 49.7%

Result: Recount Pending

In Colorado, incumbent Republican Cory Gardner faced a difficult re-election battle, due to low approval ratings. He was defeated for Re-election by fmr. Governor John Hickenlooper, 48.8% to 50.7%

Result: D Gain

In Georgia, incumbent Republican David Perdue faced a tougher than expected re-election battle, challenged by Democratic State Rep Scott Holcomb. Perdue ultimately prevailed, 53.0% to 46.9%.

Result: R Hold

In Iowa, Incumbent Joni Ernst easily won re-election over State Senator Rob Hogg, 58.7% to 40.1%.

Result: R Hold

In Kansas, fmr. Lt. Governor Jeff Colyer won the open seat for the Republicans against Chad Taylor, 59.4% to 40.6%

Result: R Hold

In Kentucky, longtime Republican Incumbent and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell decided to (finally) retire. The Republican primary to replace him was cluttered, but won by Fmr. Governor Matt Bevin. Democrats nominated fmr. State Attorney General Jack Conway. In a rematch of the 2015 Gubernatorial election, Bevin defeated Conway with relative ease.

Result: R Hold

In Maine, incumbent Republican Susan Collins retired. Fmr. State Senator Eric Barkey won the Republican Nomination to replace her. Democrats nominated fmr. State Rep Jared Golden. Currently, neither has been declared the winner. Golden leads 50.0% to  49.9%, pending a recount.

Result: Recount Pending

In Massachusetts, incumbent Democrat Ed Markey retired. The Democrats nominated State Attorney General Maura Healey to replace him. Republicans nominated State Rep. Ron Beaty as their candidate. Healey defeated Beauty with ease, winning 65% of the vote and carrying every county. Beaty has sued claiming voter fraud.

Result: D Hold

In Michigan, incumbent Democrat Gary Peters was unopposed in his renomination. He faced Macomb County Public Works Commissioner Candice Miller in the general election. He defeated Miller with 51% of the vote, even as the Presidential race was more competitive.

Result: D Hold

In Minnesota, incumbent Tina Smith sought a full term in office. After narrowly winning the 2018 special election, Smith was considered a prime target for Republicans. Despite this, Smith defeated Republican challenger Richard Painter with 50% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Montana, incumbent Republican Steve Daines ran for re-election to a second term. He was challenged by outgoing Governor Steve Bullock. The race attracted national attention due to Bullock’s popularity, despite of the State’s republican lean at the Presidential level. No winner has been declared yet, but Bullock leads Daines 49.6% to 48.9%.

Result: Recount Pending

In New Hampshire, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen retired. Her Daughter, and City Councilor Stefany Shaheen was the democratic nominee to replace her. Fmr. U.S Senator Scott Brown was the Republican nominee to oppose Shaheen.Shaheen narrowly won, 49.7% to 48.5%. Brown did not pursue a recount.

Result: D Hold.

In North Carolina, incumbent Thom Tillis sought reelection to a second term. He was challenged by state Senator Jeff Jackson. After election night, Jackson leads with 311 votes, with both candidates having 49.5% of the vote. A recount is pending.

Result: Recount Pending

In South Carolina, incumbent Lindsey Graham retired rather than seek another term in office. The Republican nominee to replace him was former state party leader Matt Moore. Democrats nominated Fmr. State Senator Vincent Sheheen as their candidate. Moore won easily, with 57% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In Virginia, incumbent Mark Warner unsuccessfully ran as the Democrats Vice Presidential candidate. The Democrats nominated Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney as their candidate to replace Warner. Republicans nominated Lt. Governor Jill Vogel as their candidate. Stoney dispatched Vogel easier than expected, winning 52% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In West Virginia, incumbent Shelley Moore Capito sought a second term in office. Initially, she was considered to be safe in her seat, but democratic challenger Richard Ojeda preformed stronger than expected. Still, in the end Capito won by a substantial margin, taking 54% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

[Edgeofnight]

Flashback: The 2016 Elections

Presidential:

Democratic Pickups in the Senate:
Illinois
Missouri
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin

[Edgeofnight]

Flashback: 2017 and 2018 Senate Elections



In Massachusetts, the 2017 special election was held in April of 2017 to replace now-vice President Elizabeth Warren. The Democratic primary was a three way contest between Congressman Joe Kennedy, Congressman Seth Moulton, and Congressman Steve Lynch. In the end, Kennedy prevailed easily, taking 55% of the primary vote. On the Republican side, appointed Senator Kirsten LePore did not run for the special election. In the Primary, Fmr. Governor Bill Weld was defeated by State Rep. Geoff Diehl, 49% to 51%. The general election was considered to be solidly democratic. In the end, Kennedy won with 63% of the vote.

Result: D Hold


2018 Key Race Summary:

In Arizona, incumbent Jeff Flake sought re-election to a second term. After narrowly beating Fmr. Sheriff Joe Arpaio and fmr. State Senator Kelli Ward in the Republican primary, Flake was considered extremely vulnerable. After lobbying from the national party, Rep. Kyrsten Sinema entered the race and became the obvious democratic front runner. The race was rated as a toss up, and became one of the most expensive races of the cycle. In the end, Sinema narrowly prevailed over the unpopular incumbent, with 49.1% of the vote.

Result: D Gain

In California, incumbent Dianne Feinstein sought another term in office. Her main challenger emerged as the more liberal Democrat Kevin De-Leon. Due to California’s top two primary system, the two faced each other in the general election. Strapped for cash and struggling with name recognition, Feinstein won over her challenger with 60% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Florida, incumbent Bill Nelson decided to retire, rather than seek another term. The Democrats nominated fmr. Rep. Patrick Murphy, their 2016 candidate, for the open seat. After Governor Rick Scott declined to run, Republicans nominated outgoing U.S. rep Tom Rooney. The race was considered a Tossup, although Murphy led most polls pre-election by 1-2%. On election day, Rooney scored an upset for the Republican party, winning with 49% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Indiana, incumbent Joe Donnelly sought a second term in office. He was challenged by fmr. Governor Mike Pence, who was persuaded to enter to prevent a messy GOP primary. The election was considered lean R, although polling had the two evenly match leading up to election day. In the end, Pence defeated the incumbent with 50% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Massachusetts, incumbent Senator Joe Kennedy sought reelection to a second term in office. He was again challenged by Congressman Seth Moulton in the Democratic Primary. Geoff Diehl was against the Republican nominee, beating 6 other minor candidates. Fmr. Governor Bill Weld ran as an independent. Kennedy beat Moulton 65% to 35%, and went on to win the general election with 62% of the vote to Weld’s 29% to Diehl's 9%.

Result: D Hold

In the Minnesota Special election, appointed incumbent Democrat sought re-election to fill the remainder of Al Franken’s term. She was unchallenged in the Democratic Primary. She faced Republican Karin Housley in the general election. The race was considered competitive, but Tina Smith ultimately prevailed with 50% of the vote. 

Result: D Hold

In the Mississippi Special election, appointed incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith ran for re-election to the remainder of Thad Cochran’s term. She was challenged by fellow Republicans State Senator Chris McDaniel and former Governor Haley Barbour in the jungle primary. She was also challenged by Democrat Mike Espy and Jason Shelton as well. McDaniel and Hyde-Smith made it into the runoff, with Espy taking a narrow third place (33% to 22% to 21%). In the runoff, McDaniel ultimately prevailed, winning 53% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In Missouri, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill decided to retire rather than seek another term in office. Democrats nominated County Executive Mike Sanders to replace her. Republicans nominated Josh Hawley. Despite fundraising concerns, Hawley was considered the heavy favorite, and won in November with 58% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Montana, incumbent Democrat Jon Tester ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unchallenged by any serious opposition in the Democratic Primary. In the general election, he faced Congressman Ryan Zinke in the general election. The race was considered a tossup, but ultimately, Tester was defeated narrowly by Zinke, with both candidates taking 50% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

In Nevada, embattled incumbent Republican Dean Heller was convinced by national Republicans to retire. To replace him, Republicans nominated outgoing Governor Brian Sandoval. The Democrats nominated Businessman Stephen Cloobeck as their candidate, after most of their top tier candidates declined to run. Sandoval prevailed easily, taking 57% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In New Jersey, embattled Incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez sought reelection to a third term. Despite speculation, he was neither forced out nor subject to a major primary challenge. On the Republican side, Republican Tom Kean Jr. emerged from a field of 5 other candidates. The General election was considered a toss up, with the two being relatively even in the polls. In the end, Kean won narrowly, taking 49% of the vote.

Result: R Gain

In North Dakota, incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp sought a second term in office. Her Republican challenger was Congressman Kevin Cramer. The race was considered a tossup, but with a strong Republican wave nationwide, Heitkamp was narrowly defeated, 50% to 49%.

Result: R Gain

In Ohio, incumbent democrat Sherrod Brown sought a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary. Republicans initially rallied around Josh Mandel, their 2012 candidate. However, when he withdrew due to family concerns, republicans became locked in a battle between Congressman Jim Renacci and investment banker Michael Gibbons. Renacci prevailed in the end. The race was considered a toss up, but Brown managed to win a third term with 52% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Pennsylvania, incumbent Bob Casey Jr. sought a third term in office. The Republican candidate to challenge him was Lou Barletta. The race was considered to have a slight Democratic tilt, as Casey’s approval ratings remained high throughout 2018. Casey prevailed in the end, carrying 51% of the vote.

Result: D Hold

In Tennessee, incumbent Bob Corker sought a third term in office. He face nominal opposition from Democrat James Mackler. Corker was considered safe throughout the race, and on election day, he won with 65% of the vote.

Result: R Hold

In Texas, incumbent Ted Cruz sought re-election to a second term. He faced nominal opposition in the Republican primary, and in the general election, he faced Congressman Beto O’Rouke. The race was considered Likely R leading up to election, and despite a strong performance from O'Rourke, Cruz prevailed, 54% to 44%.

Result: R Hold

 In Utah, incumbent Republican and Senate President Pro Tempore Orrin Hatched retired. To replace him, fmr. Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee. Democrats nominated Jenny Wilson, a Salt Lake City Councilor. Romney won overwhelmingly, with 80% of the vote

Result: R Hold

In West Virginia, incumbent Joe Manchin retired. The Democrats struggled to find a candidate to replace him. Booth Goodwin and Jeff Kessler became the leading contenders, however both declined to run. Ultimately, in a field of few candidates, Rick Thompson defeated Paula Jean Swearengin to win the nomination. Republicans faced a messy primary between Congressman Evan Jenkins, State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, and Coal Tycoon Don Blankenship. With a divided establishment vote between Jenkins and Morrissey, Blankenship was able to eek out a narrow win in the primary, winning with 38% of the vote. The General election was considered a tossup, and Blankenship ultimately won with 52% of the vote.

Result: R Gain.

[Edgeofnight]

Current Political Party Strength

Presidential Election by Margin, 2020

Closest States:

• Michigan -- .3%
• Minnesota -- .4%
• Nevada -- 1.1%
• Pennsylvania -- 1.2%
• Arizona -- 1.6%

Partisan Control of Upper Chamber of State Legislatures

*Oregon is tied, and Nebraska has a unicameral legislature.

Partisan Control of Upper Chamber of State Legislatures:

*Oregon is tied.

Partisan Control of State Governorships:

*A Recount will determine the Winner of the Montana Governor Race.

State Government Trifectas:

Current House Margin:
245 - 190

One more "Flashback" part before we get to the Haley Transition. It will cover Healthcare in the Biden Administration.

[Edgeofnight]

Flashback: Healthcare in the Biden Administration

Taking the oath of office, Biden found himself stuck in the middle on healthcare. Not many were satisfied was satisfied with the current state of the ACA. His running mate, a progressive, personally favored a single payer plan (although she would never have contradicted the President) , as did many progressives nationwide. Conservatives wanted the ACA gutted and burned. Public opinion polls showed a lack of consensus. Pretty much any move by the Biden administration would be met with opposition from a significant portion of the population and of Congress. Still the Democrats in the Senate where able to defeat the Republican house’s three attempts to repeal Obamacare.

A conflict arose in late 2017, when Senator Sanders proposed a Single Payer “Medicare for All” bill. The bill sparked fierce Republican opposition in both chambers, and lacked total support among Democrats. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota became a Democratic opponent of the bill. Senator Ross (D-NC) also announced that she would oppose the bill in its current state due to “funding concerns”. With Two democrats against it, the bill was heading for the grave. Tester (D-MT), McCaskill (D-MO), and Manchin (D-WV) found themselves at the senate or the Debate. After much public speculation, Tester announced that he would support it (possibly due to persuasion from Sanders and Majority Leader Schumer. McCaskill was next. Her fellow Senator Kander (D-MO) played a key role in convincing her to support it. When Biden signaled to the general public that he would sign it if it landed on his desk,s he signed on to support it, shortly after Tester. Manchin, with his retirement already planned, found himself one of the most powerful members of the Senate. He shocked the political world when he announced he would support it, as it broke from his traditional moderate record. Democrats had 50 votes, with Warren’s tie breaking powers, Single Payer Healthcare passed the Senate. Of course, the Republican House voted it down, ensuring it would never make the President’s desk. But the optics where clear. Democrats had hoped this would show that they were serious about Healthcare, but instead, it backfired. Republicans used it to justify their “big government is bad” rhetoric. Paul Ryan Appeared on CNN, NBC, FOX, and any news station that would give him 15 minutes to talk about how this is an example of harmful Democratic Deficit spending.

With the Single Payer bill dead on arrival, the Senate went back to the drawing board. A bipartisan health care bill, proposed by Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Patty Murray (D-WA), was formed. It sought to fix some of the key issues with the ACA. But still, this wasn’t enough, Conservatives in the house held enough votes to deny it a majority. When asked if he would whip votes in support of the bill, Ryan said “that’s not really my job, and it’s not my place to tell my colleagues how to vote.” And so, the Tea Party and Hardliner Conservatives were also able to kill the Bipartisan healthcare bill, especially when Majority Whip Steve Scalise openly came out against it. It failed, even with bipartisan support.

Once the Republicans took the Senate in 2018, it was impossible for the Democrats to get a healthcare plan through. McConnell and Ryan sent an ACA repeal to Biden’s desk three more times, and all three times it was vetoed. The House and Senate overrides failed, and healthcare would be stuck in limbo for another 4 years.

[Edgeofnight]

Part 31: Transition, 2020 (pt. 1)
Barkey Concedes to Golden, Democrats gain Maine Senate Seat.
November 5th, 2020 -- PORTLAND, ME

With the Results unlikely to change, Eric Barkey announced he was conceding the race to Democrat Jared Golden over Twitter. The Thursday Morning announcement formalizes Golden as Maine’s new Senator-elect. The Lewiston Democrat won by a margin of 1,500 votes, and will replace retiring incumbent Susan Collins, a moderate Republican. The result gives the Democrats their second senate gain.

Both sides prepare for legal battle in North Carolina.

November 8th, 2020 -- Raleigh, NC

With ballots still being counted (and recounted), the winner of the North Carolina Senate seat remains unclear. Currently, incumbent Thom Tillis leads by 89 votes against Democratic challenger Jeff Jackson. A lengthy recount process comes next, and with that will spurn numerous legal challenges, regardless of the results.

Heinz Concedes to DeWit, Republicans hold onto the Arizona Senate seat.

November 10th, 2020 -- Phoenix, Arizona.

Its official, incumbent Republican Jeff DeWit will defeat Democratic challenger Matt Heinz. Heinz admitted defeat as provisional, absentee, and military ballots appear to widen the gap between him and DeWit. This officially gives the Republicans 51 Senate seats as races in North Carolina and Montana remain uncalled.

Haley announces first cabinet picks: Senator Corker to be Secretary of State, Governor Baker to be Secretary of Health and Human Services.

November 11th, 2020 -- Washington DC.

In her second press conference as President-elect, Nikki Haley announced her first two cabinet picks: Tennessee Senator Bob Corker for Secretary of State, and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker for Secretary of Health and Human Services.

Corker has made a name for himself as a frequent critic of President Biden, especially on foreign policy. He’s been a leading opposition figure on the Iran Deal, continued food aid to North Korea, and has blamed the President for the resurgence of ISIS in early 2019.  However, the two have sometimes found themselves on the same side. When President Biden declaed a “redline” in Syria, and followed up with limited air strikes against the Regime, Corker stated that it “was probably the right move.” Still, his more hawkish stances have drawn criticism. Senator Sanders (I-VT) stated that he plans to vote no on Corker’s nomination. Even from Republicans, Corker isn’t guaranteed a warm welcome. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) called him “ a Hawk, plain and simple” on national TV. The move to nominate Corker signals to the word that Haley intends to be assertive with the US stance in the world, and indicates the potential for a much bolder foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Governor Baker sends a different signal. A known moderate, and occasional defender of the Affordable Care Act, Governor Baker served 10 years as a healthcare executive. “There just isn’t much bad to say about the guy,” Senator Joe Kennedy (D-MA), who has worked closely with Baker on the opioid epidemic. If confirmed, Baker has said his top priority would be combating the opioid epidemic nationwide, and stated that he would “absolutely oppose” any efforts to “dismantle” the ACA unless he was shown a suitable alternative. Its unclear how the more conservative members of the Senate will react to this appointment.

Democrats square off for control of the House Caucus.

November 15th, 2020 -- Washington DC

With longtime leader Nancy Pelosi calling it quits, Democrats are scrambling to replace her. The four candidates who have emerged have been travelling the country, meeting with voters and fellow Representatives, trying to drum up support. Representative Tim Ryan (D-OH) has touted his ability to reach out to voters across the political spectrum, and stated that he can “refocus the party” after their “brutal losses.” Joaquin Castro (D-TX), Chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, has stated that he’s a leader for a “new Generation” of Democrats. Cedric Richmond (D-LA), chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, has entered the fray in a similar position to Castro. The final candidate, Congressman Ro Khanna (D-CA), has stated that its time to take the party in a bold new direction. “None of the other candidates have done this.” Khanna’s jump as a two term Congressman, recently elected to his third term, has raised eyebrows. Polling Democrats nationwide has led to mixed results. 38% say they have no preference. 22% haven’t heard of any of the candidates in the race. 13% support Ryan, 12% support Richmond, 10% support Castro, and 5% say they support Khanna.

[Coastal Elitist]

You never showed the election results for the West Coast, polls closed at 10:00 PM ET

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Kander 2024!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Sestak]

What happened in Montana?

[Edgeofnight]

You never showed the election results for the West Coast, polls closed at 10:00 PM ET

All the West Coast states where "Safe" for Warren or Haley. I didn't feel the need to take up space with it. Its in a spreadsheet, so if there are any states that people want to know the margin in I can post that.
For the West Coast:

California: 59.6% vs 36.4%
Oregon: 51.0% vs 45.4%
Washington: 52.6% vs 44.8%
Hawaii: 64.1% vs 32.6%
Alaska:53.7% vs 44.1%

Kander 2024!!!!!!!!!!!!

He's gotta win re-election first....

What happened in Montana?

Close margins for both the Governor and Senate races prompted a recount, the result of which you'll find out below.

Part 32: Transition, 2020 (pt.2)

Baker meets conservative opposition in the Senate.

November 18th, 2020 -- Boston, MA

In a joint interview on CNN, Governor and Secretary-designate Charlie Baker spared with Republican Senator Tom Cotton over the role of Planned Parenthood and the Affordable Care Act. The two traded blows back and forth for over an hour, reaching little agreement on anything. In the end, Cotton pledged to oppose Baker, to which the Governor responded with “that is your right as a Senator.”

Cotton isn’t the only one. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) and Senator Jeff DeWit (R-AZ) Released a joint statement “expressing concern” over Baker’s support of Planned Parenthood. Sources inside DC tell that “at least 10 Republicans plan to vote against Baker.”

But all is not over for Baker. Senator Joe Kennedy (D-MA) and Senator-elect Maura Healey (D-MA) both stated that the would vote for Baker, issuing their own joint statement where they explained that “Baker is the right person to head up the fight against the Opioid Epidemic.”  Other Democrats, such as Jason Kander (D-MO) have also signaled support for Baker. With support from most Republicans and most Democrats, Baker would have an easy time passing the Senate. Still, it is likely that many more Republicans will have hesitations about the Massachusetts Governor.

Republicans Select Cornyn to lead them in the Senate.

November 20th, 2020 -- Dallas, TX

Texas’ Senior Senator John Cornyn has won the leadership race to be the next Senate Majority Leader. Incumbent Whip, John Thune, will stay on as the Majority whip at Cornyn’s urging. Cornyn’s primary opponent in the leadership contest, Wyoming Senator John Barrasso, conceded defeat, promising to work with the new majority leader to unite the caucus. Cornyn will take office in January of 2021.

Haley expands cabinet picks

November 26th, 2020 -- Washington DC

Over the past few days, President Elect Haley has announced several additional cabinet positions.

First for her Chief of Staff, she will appoint Catherine Templeton, who ran her early primary campaign and served as one of her deputy campaign managers. Her Campaign manager and former chairman of Citizens United David Bossie will serve as a Counselor and Special Advisor to the President. For her Communications Director, she will appoint head of RNC Communications Ryan Mahoney.

For heads of federal departments, Haley has announced four new nominees. To head up the justice department, former Congressman Trey Gowdy will be appointed to serve as Attorney General. The former assistant US Attorney, former South Carolina Solicitor, and former head of the House Oversight Committee has promised to make Government corruption among his chief priorities leading the Justice Department.

To lead the Defense Department, outgoing Congresswoman Martha McSally, who made a play at McCain’s seat before being defeated in the Primary by incumbent Senator DeWit. The Arizona Congresswoman was a Colonel in the United States Air Force before joining Congress, and gained national notoriety when she became the first female fighter pilot in the US Military, and she became the first female Commander of a USAF fighter squadron. 

For the Housing Department, County Executive Rob Astorino of New York will head up that federal agency. For the Interior Department, former Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin will take the reigns as Halley's pick.

Kander, Harris lead early 2024 Primary polling.

November 28th, 2020 -- San Francisco, CA

Although Haley hasn’t taken her oath of office yet, Democrats are already preparing to take her on in 2024. A new poll from Public Policy Polling shows  a divided field. 12 Democrats were included in the poll, at the top where two familiar faces. California Senator Kamala Harris, who was the runner up to Vice President Warren in the 2020 primary, leads the field with 12% of the vote. Right behind her is the third place 2020 Candidate, Missouri Senator Jason Kander, who carries 10% of the vote. Beyond those top two, no candidate has double digit support. Full Results below:

• Sen. Kamala Harris -- 12%
• Sen. Jason Kander -- 10%
• Sen. Joe Kennedy -- 7%
• Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand -- 6%
• Sen. Cory Booker -- 5%
• Gov. Andrew Cuomo -- 3%
• Rep Tulsi Gabbard -- 3%
• Gov. Allison L. Grimes  -- 3%
• Gov. Dan Biss -- 2%
• Mayor Bill De Blasio -- 2%
• Sen. Kyrsten Sinema -- 2%
• Gov. Gretchen Whitmer -- 2%
• Undecided/Others -- 42%

Other November 2020 Headlines:

November 8th: Nina Turner declares candidacy for DNC Chair.
November 10th: Bullock, McLean officially declared winners after second recount. Daines concedes, Gianforte refuses, plans “next step.”
November 11th: Gianforte Conceedes over Twitter, McLean proclaims herself Governor-elect.
November 15th: Virginia State Attorney General Mark Herring set to announce Gubernatorial run next week.
November 21st: Tom Perez vows to win re-election as Cecile Richards becomes third democrat to declare bid for party chair.
November 23rd: Barack Obama: “We’re all rooting for Nikki Haley”
November 26th: Congressman Duncan Hunter (R-CA) calls for investigation into Elizabeth Warren over potential FEC violations.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Tom for DNC !!!!!

[Edgeofnight]

Part 33: Transition, 2020 (pt. 3)

Joaquin Castro wins leadership vote on third ballot.

December 2nd, 2020 -- San Antonio, TX

San Antonio Democrat Joaquin Castro has won the race to lead the Democratic Caucus in the wake of Nancy Pelosi’s retirement. In his first public address as Leader-elect, Castro promised to be a uniting figure in the party, which has faced some internal strife in the wake of the 2020 primaries.

Castro beat out three other Democrats. California Congressman Ro Khanna, Ohio Congressman Tim Ryan, and Louisiana Congressman Cedric Richmond.

Democratic House Leader, First Ballot:

Tim Ryan -- 71
Joaquin Castro -- 53
Cedric Richmond -- 48
Ro Khanna -- 18 (eliminated)

Democratic House Leader, Second Ballot:

Tim Ryan -- 80
Joaquin Castro -- 56
Cedric Richmond -- 54 (eliminated)

Democratic House Leader, Third Ballot

Joaquin Castro -- 101
Tim Ryan -- 89

Joaquin Castro will be formally sworn in as House Leader January 3rd, 2021.

Court orders end to North Carolina Recounts as Tillis Leads with 186 votes. Jackson concedes.

December 10th, 2020 -- Raleigh, NC.

Thom Tillis has won re-election by the narrowest margin in North Carolina History.  AFter the state’s highest Court declared an end to the recount effort, Thom Tillis (Rep.) leads with less than 200 votes. Jackson, who’s only options where to concede or appeal to the United States Supreme Court, announced that he will not appeal further, and will end the legal battle. He gave a formal concession speech, in which he thanked his supporters, and explained his reasoning for conceding. He didn’t, however, once mention Senator Tillis by name. Jackson insisted that this would not be the end of his political career.


Haley’s latest announcement run into trouble.

December 15th, 2020 -- Washington DC.

Haley kicked off the day yesterday with another slew of Announcements. One of them, however, has ran into some problems in the Senate. Former Congressman Evan Jenkins of West Virginia has been announced as Haley’s pick to lead the energy department. Democrats reacted swiftly to the news. “I’m not sure he’s the best person to create our energy policy,” said Senator Jason Kander (D-MO) in an interview with CNN. Similar sentiments have been echoed by Senators Kamala Harris (D-CA) and Tim Kaine (D-VA). But Jenkins nomination has been complicated by Senator Don Blankenship (R-WV). In an interview with Fox, Blankenship said he was undecided, but also added that he was leaning towards voting against Jenkins because “I just don’t like the guy.” Senator Tom Kean (R-NJ) has also announced his intention to vote against Jenkins, stating Jenkins stance on coal and climate change should disqualify him.


Other December Headlines:

December 6th: State Delegate Danica Roem declares bid for Virginia Lieutenant Governor.
December 7th: Outgoing Secretary Jack Markell declares bid for DNC chair, fourth Democrat to enter the race.
December 8th: Corey Stewart declares Gubernatorial bid in Virginia.
December 8th: Phil Murphy declares re-election bid, leads Republican challengers.
December 12th: Fmr. Lt. Governor Ralph Northam Declares Gubernatorial bid in Virginia, trails Herring.
December 13th: Jon Huntsman will not continue as UN Ambassador, Haley to appoint Joe Heck as replacement.
December 12th: Deputy Chair Ellison will not challenge Tom Perez
December 13th: Attorney Justin Fairfax declares Attorney General Bid in Virginia.
December 14th: Haley announces Rosario Marin as her appointment to Treasury Secretary, Meg Whitman to be Commerce Secretary, Pam Bondi to be Labor Secretary, and Evan Jenkins to be Energy Secretary.
December 15th: Anthony Kennedy floats retirement publically
December 16th: Jason Rae declares bid for DNC chair.
December: 18th: Tom Perillo declares Virginia Gubernatorial bid.
December 20th: Matt Heinz: “I’ll Probably run again.

”

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Danica for Lt Gov!!