Germany: What happens next?

[kyc0705]

In the quoted tweet thread below, four scenarios are projected as possible in the wake of a seeming collapse of a Jamaica coalition (CDU + FDP + Greens.) If you had to place a bet on one, which would it be?

@JeremyCliffe
Some thoughts on what happens next in Germany, after FDP walk-out of coalition talks:

(1) (This assumes the walk-out is not a last ditch negotiating stunt. It appears not to be.)

(2) Apart from Jamaica, only other viable majority would be a new CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition. SPD has ruled this out (Schulz reiterating the commitment just this afternoon).

(3) Will the SPD change its mind? My sources in party split. Some reckon media & European pressure could shift things, especially if Merkel agrees to go. Others say impossible.
Unlike some other European parliaments, the Bundestag cannot simply dissolve itself (legacy of Weimar-era instability). And Merkel can't call a confidence vote (as Kohl did in '82 and Schröder in '05) as not yet reinstalled as chancellor.

(4) Instead it's up to President Steinmeier. He can call new elections (but only if no majority is established after 3 votes of confidence in the new Bundestag) or can invite the largest party to form minority government.

(5) Minority government alien to modern Germany (it has not occurred in history of federal republic) and to Merkel's governing style.

(6) NB: Most reckon new elections would most boost the AfD. That, combined with the constitutional hurdles, means they're far from a certainty.

(7) It's conceivable, for example, that Merkel could limp along for a while with a minority administration before SPD reenters government on new terms.

(8.) Safe to say that unless the FDP returns to the table or the SPD changes course, Merkel is severely weakened. It's possible, though not probable, that she will face a leadership challenge in the coming weeks.

(9) In summary there are now four possibilities: a) FDP lured back to the table, b) SPD changes its mind, c) minority CDU/CSU govt (possibly with Greens or FDP), d) new elections.

(10) But note that the decisive personality in c) and d) is Steinmeier, not Merkel.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

new elections

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I just realized: If it comes to snap elections and Merkel (presumably) wins again, she will have been the longest-serving chancellor after the end of the next legislative period.

[Former President tack50]

I wonder, if Merkel simply didn't want to deal with this, can't she just force the Bundestag vote?

That way she throws the ball into Steinmeier's court, who will then have to choose for her between minority government or new election. And Merkel can just blame him if things go wrong.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I wonder, if Merkel simply didn't want to deal with this, can't she just force the Bundestag vote?

That way she throws the ball into Steinmeier's court, who will then have to choose for her between minority government or new election. And Merkel can just blame him if things go wrong.

No, only the federal presidentcan initiate the chancellery election.
If you're adverting to the destructive vote of no confidence, she can't do it either as she is only being the acting chancellor at the moment; to initiate that vote she'd need to be elected chancellor by the current Bundestag first.