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Author Topic: Dems Taking the House?  (Read 20443 times)
classical liberal
RightWingNut
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Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

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« on: April 30, 2004, 05:45:12 pm »

Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IL-19
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MI-09
MI-11
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
MI-07
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2004, 06:14:04 pm »

A poster who lives in the district has posted in another thread that the district is currently held by an entrenched encumbent.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2004, 08:11:17 pm »

Apparently, the encumbent has been gaining 2 points every cycle.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2004, 08:12:07 pm by RightWingNut »Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2004, 08:31:36 pm »

The incumbent won with 48 in 98, 50 in 00, and 55 in 02.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2004, 11:21:35 am »

who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

Tthose districts were won with less than 60%.  I don't know anything about them; that's why I started this thread.  Are there any disrticts in MI that might be competitive?
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2004, 11:29:09 am »

Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
MI-07
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?
Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2004, 11:31:31 am »

who came  up with this list; Michigan 11 and 9 shouldn't be on it. They must not know much about them.

Tthose districts were won with less than 60%.  I don't know anything about them; that's why I started this thread.  Are there any disrticts in MI that might be competitive?

not really

Is Nick Smith's old district going to be competitive now that it's an open seat (he's retiring)?
« Last Edit: May 01, 2004, 11:38:38 am by RightWingNut »Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2004, 12:08:12 pm »

Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?
Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2004, 09:15:00 pm »

Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
VA-04
WA-05
WA-08
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
MI-07
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04


Predictions? Comments? Feedback?
Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2004, 09:38:41 pm »

I don't see any of the NC or SC seats being won, SC and western NC are now heavily Republican even in voter registration, SC was once the most Democratic state in the country but it's already made the transistion, the Republicans completely control the legislature, governor's mansion, most state offices and voter registration, and the area of western NC/eastern TN has alwasy been Republican, even back in the "solid south" days. So don't count on any Blue Dogs there. Besides, the districts are so far to the right, I don't see them accepting any Democrat, no matter how moderate, it's like saying a moderate Republican could win MN-5, I mean SC-4 is the home of Bob Jones University!

SC-04 is on the list because DeMint is retiring.  SC isn't nearly as Republican as is once was.  Nixon won it with 71%, Bush-II won it with 57%.  That's a loss of 14% for the GOP over 28 years, 2 points per year.
« Last Edit: May 01, 2004, 09:40:21 pm by RightWingNut »Logged

"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #10 on: May 02, 2004, 12:00:48 am »

SC-04 was moved to the East by like 2 counties.  Now that it'll be an open seat, the Democratic Counties that were added will make it competitive IMHO.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: May 02, 2004, 12:35:06 pm »

Two of the counties that were moved out of the disrtict went to Bush with 80%, two of the counties added went to Gore with 55% and 65% respectively.  That's a significant substitution.  Considering that the multi-term incumbent lost 10% of his support from 2000 in 2002, even when the election was during the build up to war, now that the seat is empty I think that it will be quite competitive.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: May 02, 2004, 09:31:24 pm »

The Albuquerque suburbs are not developed enough to start liberalizing.  The age of a suburb in the current day determines its liberal tendency.  The older a suburb, the more liberal it is.  New suburbs include people who are worried about taxes and excessive government spending since they have money but haven't had it long enough to start feeling guilty about it.  The moderate republican areas will become increasingly liberal as time passes.  The Chicago suburbs seems to be retaining conservatism a bit longer than other areas, the middle suburbs IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-13, WI-01, and IN-02 are a bit more conservative than the middle suburbs of NYC, DC, or LA.  The whiteness may be a major contributor to the moderation of the pace there though.  In Albuquerque, the rate of LA relative to the cities growth is probably a good model.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2004, 09:59:19 pm »

I'm saying that the Albuquerque suburbs will follow a similar liberalization trend to those of LA, w.r.t. the growth of the subrubs of course.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
classical liberal
RightWingNut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,758


Political Matrix
E: 9.35, S: -8.26

View Profile
« Reply #14 on: May 16, 2004, 01:08:28 am »

I just went through and found that if there were no gerrymandering, the house would be D-R-I 215-213-7.
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"As for me, I'd rather live in a free country than a 'fair' one." --David Harsanyi

"What passes for optimism is most often the effect of an intellectual error." --Raymond Claud Ferdinan Aron

"The world is a rough and nasty place. Absent a change in human nature, it will remain so." --Robert M. Gates
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