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| | |-+  Dems Taking the House? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Dems Taking the House?  (Read 20781 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« on: May 01, 2004, 10:23:39 am »

Blue Dogs baby, Blue Dogs.

Go Dawgs! My Representative is a Blue Dog and I like it.

Who's your Representative?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2004, 11:41:16 am »

I actually confused NC-5 and NC-10 Sad... although IMO both are possible Dem pickups... If they have strong, moderate/blue dawg candidates. NC-5 is a more likely D win than NC-10.
The same applies for SC-4.
---
However WA-5 is a genuine tossup... look at it's political history... person over party...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2004, 12:13:19 pm »

Counting the SD-AL as one of the 206 the Dems already have.  The seats that people have posted on this forum as the Dems definitely having a chance in are (12 needed for control of the House):
AZ-01
CO-03
CO-07
GA-11
GA-12
IN-02
IN-08
KY-03
LA-03
NY-27
PA-15
WA-08
VA-04
WV-02

Other close seats (won with under 60% support), that people haven't denied as possible Dem pickups include:
AL-03
AZ-02
CO-04
CT-02
CT-05
FL-05
FL-13
IL-08
IA-01
IA-02
IA-04
MN-02
MN-06
NV-03
NH-01
NH-02
NJ-07
NC-08
NC-10
NC-11
OH-03
OK-01
OK-04
PA-06

Open seats not thusfar named as competitive for Dems include:
FL-14
GA-08
NE-01
NC-05
NY-29
SC-04
WA-05

Predictions? Comments? Feedback?


Add WA-5
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2004, 12:35:10 pm »

I don't see any of the NC or SC seats being won, SC and western NC are now heavily Republican even in voter registration, SC was once the most Democratic state in the country but it's already made the transistion, the Republicans completely control the legislature, governor's mansion, most state offices and voter registration, and the area of western NC/eastern TN has alwasy been Republican, even back in the "solid south" days. So don't count on any Blue Dogs there. Besides, the districts are so far to the right, I don't see them accepting any Democrat, no matter how moderate, it's like saying a moderate Republican could win MN-5, I mean SC-4 is the home of Bob Jones University!

Like I said before, the collapse of the textile industry changes things... I don't see NC-10 switching... but NC-5 has taken a bit hit... The Dems won't target either... they're after NC-8 and NC-11... but upsets happen when the electorate gets angry.
SC-4 is the home of Bob Jones "University" but so what? It's a relatively ungerrymandered district... and SC as a whole ain't as GOP as it was in the '80's.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2004, 02:23:52 pm »

Question: how did Holden manage to win in 2002?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2004, 03:21:03 pm »

Question: how did Holden manage to win in 2002?

I have to say total Republican overconfidence. Now he has to defeat the son of Joe Paterno who just won a multi-way GOP primary with 27% of the vote. I think he'll do it, however. It is amazing since this district is so overwhelmingly Republican.

It was the one House result that really stunned me... most of the other upsets were at least semi-predictable (eg: GA-12)...
Thanks for explaining
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: May 02, 2004, 05:23:45 am »

SC-4 is part of the textile belt... and is ungerrymandered.

If Edwards is on the Presidential ticket, you'll probably see a load of Piedmont Dems voting for the first time in...
I'd say that the GOP have the advantage in SC-4 but it's not certain... and the Dems do have a chance.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2004, 10:41:44 am by VP Al »Logged



Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2004, 03:32:37 am »



   Not all older suburbs are liberal. The suburbs that have become liberal are also the sububs that have had the most chaneg in terms of racial and economic demographics. While prices in Sacramento have shot up 100% since 2000 for home in its suburbs, the racial and economic demographics of its older suburbs(CA-3) have largely remained the same in the last 20 years, the GOP performance isint quite what it was in the 80s, but still its solid Republican, and the old Sacramento suburbs almost went 70& for the recall last fall. Here in Columbus, the older suburbs are still pretty solidly Republican as well, what moved Columbus area towrds parity in national elections is a record high black turnout and a bigger liberal element in its urban core.

Voting trends in suburbs can be very interesting...
For an example... Vancouver:

Which has an insane amount of very different suburbs...
« Last Edit: May 14, 2004, 04:34:50 am by VP Al »Logged



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