Any Strong opinions on who will win FL & Missouri Senate races?

[SCNCmod]

Will Nelson & McCaskill be able to ride enough of a wave to win... or are either or both a complete toss-up?

[jamestroll]

both toss up tilt r. [my actual opinion]

Both of those contests are rarely discussed here.....[sarcasm]

[Doimper]

I'd be really surprised if Nelson went down. Scott's been polling well, but that's mostly because of the hurricane boost, which will be gone by November 2018.

Missouri's a true tossup at this point. McCaskill would almost certainly get Blanched if this were a Clinton midterm, but Trump makes her job a lot easier.

[Brittain33]

I understand why Nelson is Toss-up in Cook, but candidates like him generally don't lose in states like Florida in a midterm like 2018 is shaping up to be.

[TheSaint250]

I understand why Nelson is Toss-up in Cook, but candidates like him generally don't lose in states like Florida in a midterm like 2018 is shaping up to be.

Exactly. While Scott did a good job with the hurricane and can certainly bring forth the money needed to keep the race close, incumbency + lean D year overall will put Scott at a disadvantage.

[Rjjr77]

Scott is a strong candidate, and that is a pure tossup.

McCaskill is dead dead dead.

[Brittain33]

Scott is a strong candidate.

I don't understand that argument. Scott won narrowly (60,000 votes) both times running in massive Republican wave years.

People overlooked or ignored his checkered business past because they wanted to elect a Republican in those years.

[Rjjr77]

Scott is a strong candidate.

I don't understand that argument. Scott won narrowly (60,000 votes) both times running in massive Republican wave years.

People overlooked or ignored his checkered business past because they wanted to elect a Republican in those years.

any two time governor with statewide ID is a strong candidate. I actually expect Nelson to pull it off and i expect it to move, but coming off his leadership during the hurricanes hes actually riding high at the moment

[Dereich]

Scott is a strong candidate.

I don't understand that argument. Scott won narrowly (60,000 votes) both times running in massive Republican wave years.

People overlooked or ignored his checkered business past because they wanted to elect a Republican in those years.

Without counting the hurricane popularity surge, the argument that Scott is a strong candidate has to come down to his ability to clear the field, a good economic record to run on, and (most importantly) the large sums of money he'll donate to his own race.

Scott has never been a particularly good campaigner and before the hurricane his numbers were only so-so (around the mid 40s). I don't really see him being that strong a candidate against Nelson and I've expected an easy Nelson win since the day I heard Scott was running. I am more surprised than anyone to see that this race is being talked up as seriously competitive; nothing about the candidates, the expected nationwide dynamic, or even Florida voting patterns really favors Scott.

[Sir Mohamed]

Nelson will certainly prevail by mid to high single digits.

I consider McCaskill and Donnelly as the most vulnerable Democrats for next year. Pure toss-up. In the end, I think McCaskill will lose by two or three points and be the only sitting Democrat losing.

[TheSaint250]

Nelson will win Florida’s by less than 5% and McCaskill will lose

[InheritTheWind]

Nelson will win by ~4 percentage points, MO is a true tossup IMO but I do think McCaskill will win.

[KingSweden]

I’d be surprised if Nelson lost, whereas I wouldn’t be surprised if McCaskill lost

#moderatehero

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

I’d be surprised if Nelson lost, whereas I wouldn’t would be surprised if McCaskill lost won

#moderatehero

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Nelson wins 52-45. Lean D rating

I think McCaskill edges out 49-48. Tossup rating

I would be spitting out soup surprised if Nelson loses. I would not be surprised if McCaskill loses, but for now, I think she will be able to pull another magic trick.

[MAINEiac4434]

Nelson will win Florida and it won’t be close.

[ursulahx]

I think McCaskill will lose by two or three points and be the only sitting Democrat losing.

The only one? From an outsider’s perspective it’s difficult to imagine that level of confidence about Heitkamp or Donnelly. But I don’t know the states very well.

[President Johnson]

Bill Nelson will handily win. By 8 or 10 percentage points. I guess McCaskill will narrowly be defeated the the Republican canididate.

[Rhenna]

Can't imagine Bill Nelson losing in a D wave election year especially when Jon Tester, Joe Manchin, and Heidi Heitkamp are also likely to win, dems would have to mess up really bad to lose FL to Scott.
McCaskill is easily one of the most vulnerable senators along with Donnelly, but I think Josh Hawley is overrated and I just simply can't see him in the senate.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Nelson is going to win in Florida, bet on it.
Missouri is a toss-up right now, but I think McCaskill should be able to pull it out in the end.

[UncleSam]

Florida is too polarized to be anything but a close race. Frankly, I kind of think Scott will win even if Dems take the house simply because the state voted for Trump despite Hillary's spending advantage and increased Latino turnout combined with a small white college graduate population, but at the same time you can't deny that a state like Florida should be going blue in a wave year. Idk yet on this one, but I'd be it proses if it was more than a 3 point race in either direction.

McCaskill will probably lose, MO has shifted right and Hawley is the kind of establishment conservative who offends no one but still is liked by the base that becomes a swamp monster for decades in the senate. Hawley +5 is my current prediction, and this is by far the most likely D seat to flip.

As of now I actually think these may be the two worst senate races for Dems as they are shaping up, due to the inability of Rs to get good candidates in most other red states.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Florida is too polarized to be anything but a close race. Frankly, I kind of think Scott will win even if Dems take the house simply because the state voted for Trump despite Hillary's spending advantage and increased Latino turnout combined with a small white college graduate population, but at the same time you can't deny that a state like Florida should be going blue in a wave year.

Bill Nelson is not Hillary Clinton....

He won his last race by 13 points with a presidential race going on that was decided by less than a point.

[Crumpets]

I'm pretty bearish on McCaskill's chances, and I'm expecting 2018 to be a pretty strong year for Democrats. I wouldn't say she has no chance by any stretch, but I feel like everything to happen since 2012 has really re-enforced the one-offness of that election, and if McCaskill does win, it will be paired with Democrats picking up something on the order of 50-60 House seats, and having Senate races like Texas also being competitive.

[henster]

Still amazing Rick Scott was managed to get elected considering his hand in the largest Medicaid fraud in history. The irony of him getting elected despite that, in a state full of elderly people. I mean there's even a video of him pleading the 5th repeatedly, hopefully voters finally punish him in 2018.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Nelson v. Scott will be tight, FL is polarized and Scott can outspend Nelson significantly. But on a good night for Dems, Nelson should pull it out.

McCaskill will lose unless Hawley loses the primary or has an Akin moment. Missouri has gone from a state that voted 5 points to the left of the nation in 1992, to voting 22 points to the right of the nation in 2016. In that time frame, it trended republican in every presidential election. In 2016, democrats were soundly defeated in all statewide races as the state decided that the time for downballot Dems had passed. It is clear that in 2018, all that is needed is a competent opponent to take down McCaskill and the state Auditor. The political climate holds no relevance as the state trended republican even in '08.