What will be 2018's "surprise" result(s)?

[TheSaint250]

Every two years (at least recently), there always seems to be some unseen victory or victories in the Senate elections. For example:

2012: MT, ND
2014: NC
2016: WI, PA (if you count PA as being a surprise victory for Toomey)

Of course, some predicted that they would go as they did, but many pundits believed that they would go the other way.  Which 2018 Senate contests do you think could go the same way in 2018?

[UncleSam]

Harder to see much of a surprise next year than in prior years simply because for the first time in a while the party expected to win most of the competitive races has very few if any 'reach' races. There's a notable lack of true Likely R or even strong Lean R races

Maybe MO if McCaskill wins

[GeorgiaModerate]

Leaving out everything that's either Tossup or Lean at Crystal Ball, since neither outcome in those races would be a tremendous surprise...

The most likely (though still not very likely) upset is probably Texas or Tennessee, especially if TN is Bredesen vs. Blackburn.

[Cactus Jack]

I could see O'Rourke or Mackler winning in a perfect storm.

[IceSpear]

I could see O'Rourke or Mackler winning in a perfect storm.

Damn, you sure love predicting things that have a 0.00001% chance of happening. Are you an avid lotto player?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The wave being bigger than expected and McCaskill winning reelection.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

The wave being bigger than expected and McCaskill winning reelection.

McCaskill winning reelection would not be that surprising, certainly not a shocking upset.

[Cactus Jack]

The wave being bigger than expected and McCaskill winning reelection.

McCaskill winning reelection would not be that surprising, certainly not a shocking upset.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Hawley is actually a pretty bad candidate.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The wave being bigger than expected and McCaskill winning reelection.

McCaskill winning reelection would not be that surprising, certainly not a shocking upset.

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me at all. Hawley is actually a pretty bad candidate.

Yeah, you're right. I actually have her winning in my current prediction.

[Virginiá]

Statistically speaking, the incumbent reelection rate for the party that doesn't control the White House is like > 95% in midterms. McCaskill winning reelection shouldn't be that surprising. In fact, until otherwise proven it should probably be assumed to happen.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

To the McCaskill fans, the surprise will be her losing by 7.

As for myself, Dems winning the governorship of South Dakota, Oklahoma, or South Carolina would be a shock. I have all those races out of Safe but only because I consider myself a failure if I have to change a Safe R or Safe D rating after my Google doc is launched.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

As for a shocking upset other than McCaskill: I would have to say Rauner eeking out a reelection win or Hogan losing. Both things I don't see happening.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Statistically speaking, the incumbent reelection rate for the party that doesn't control the White House is like > 95% in midterms. McCaskill winning reelection shouldn't be that surprising. In fact, until otherwise proven it should probably be assumed to happen.

FWIW, MO has broken that trend before: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Missouri,_2002

[cvparty]

o'rourke unseats cruz LOL

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

o'rourke unseats cruz LOL

[Mike Thick]

 - Tom McClintock faces an unexpectedly close race, and becomes a serious Democratic target in 2020.
 - John Chiang wins the governorship of California, in part due to allegations of sexual impropriety against one of his opponents.
 - O’Rourke doesn’t unseat Cruz, but comes within mid-high single digits and establishes that Texas is actually starting to become competitive.
 - Bob Casey underperforms badly relative to the national environment.
 - Rod Blum gets blanched.

That is all.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Ted Cruz is the only Republican incumbent that makes it to the general.

[Rjjr77]

Rauner winning re-election.

[Pericles]

Amy McGrath wins KY-06. Also a Bryce win is possible but unlikely. Archie Parnell winning too.

[Hindsight was 2020]

-Paul Ryan loses to Iron Stache
-Mia Love loses to Ben McAdams
-Richard Ojeda wins WV-03

[Dr. MB]

-O'Rourke wins Texas
-Richard Ojeda wins WV-03
-Democratic nominee wins Kansas governor
-Both Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy are unseated
-Sherrod Brown gets stricklanded

[junior chįmp]

Paul 'Ron' Ryan is done

[libertpaulian]

-Rauner wins re-election
-O'Rourke wins or comes within 5-7% of doing so
-Randy Bryce wins WI-01

[Cactus Jack]

Actually, while I'm at it: the Democrats actually push their recent forward trend in Alaska and finally, finally unseat Dinosaur Don Young.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Rauner winning re-election.

This one's a keeper

I actually think this is more likely than traditional thinking would suggest.

To answer the question, Donnelly wins comfortably (>7.5%)