What will be 2018's "surprise" result(s)?

[Virginiá]

Statistically speaking, the incumbent reelection rate for the party that doesn't control the White House is like > 95% in midterms. McCaskill winning reelection shouldn't be that surprising. In fact, until otherwise proven it should probably be assumed to happen.

FWIW, MO has broken that trend before: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Missouri,_2002

Not quite. That was a special election for what was essentially an open seat. McCaskill will still be an incumbent running for reelex. The issue wasn't winning an open seat, which I might add is still hard for the party that controls the White House, depending on the state. The issue is unseating an opposition party incumbent lawmaker in a midterm - especially if it's a wave. Even an incumbent who isn't all that popular can scrape by if the environment is unfavorable enough.

On the other hand, there is a reason it's not a 100% reelection rate. She could still lose, but given how far away we are from accurate polls, the trends say she is a favorite for reelection.

[Cactus Jack]

Rauner winning re-election.

This one's a keeper

I actually think this is more likely than traditional thinking would suggest.

To answer the question, Donnelly wins comfortably (>7.5%)

I could see that. Messer is as milquetoast as they come and Rokita is an implosion waiting to happen. The only candidate that would really worry me is Mike Braun.

[Figueira]

Most people are predicting things that are currently not expected to happen. But we have no idea what polls will look like in November. Maybe the polls in Nevada will be terrible and Heller losing will be a shocking upset.

[junior chįmp]

Scott Walker will not win

[Rjjr77]

Rauner winning re-election.

This one's a keeper

Go big on surprises right? I am fairly confident he loses but I think hes a LOT closer to reelection than most people do.

[VPH]

-Dems pick up both KS-02 and KS-03
-Poliquin goes down while Stefanik wins relatively easily again
-Feinstein's primary will be within 10 points
-Oklahoma and Kansas' Gubernatorial races are within 6-7%
-Tom Tancredo wins the Colorado Gubernatorial GOP nomination
-Richard Ojeda gets only around 30%
-Mia Love loses
-Heitkamp wins by more than 10%

[Kamala]

-Dems pick up both KS-02 and KS-03
-Poliquin goes down while Stefanik wins relatively easily again
-Feinstein's primary will be within 10 points
-Oklahoma and Kansas' Gubernatorial races are within 6-7%
-Tom Tancredo wins the Colorado Gubernatorial GOP nomination
-Richard Ojeda gets only around 30%
-Mia Love loses
-Heitkamp wins by more than 10%

How about KS-04? Could Kansas see a majority-Dem congressional delegation for the first time in, like, decades?

[Webnicz]

Svaty becomes governor of Kansas is probably the most realistic "surprise" result

[junior chįmp]

Svaty becomes governor of Kansas is probably the most realistic "surprise" result

I agree with this. Svaty will win and realign Kansas politics

[VPH]

-Dems pick up both KS-02 and KS-03
-Poliquin goes down while Stefanik wins relatively easily again
-Feinstein's primary will be within 10 points
-Oklahoma and Kansas' Gubernatorial races are within 6-7%
-Tom Tancredo wins the Colorado Gubernatorial GOP nomination
-Richard Ojeda gets only around 30%
-Mia Love loses
-Heitkamp wins by more than 10%

How about KS-04? Could Kansas see a majority-Dem congressional delegation for the first time in, like, decades?

I think KS-04 will be kinda close but not like 2017. Fundraising isn't what it needs to be and he's facing a primary challenge from businesswoman Laura Lombard, who's raising as much money as he is now. There's lots of drama between his campaign team and other people in the party over a recall effort against the KDP Secretary (who worked for Thompson's team).

In regard to posts about Svaty, I'm a huge fan of his, and if he can prevail in the primary I think he would beat Kobach.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I wouldn't call either side winning in ND, MO, IN, FL, AZ, NV, or WV a surprise, unless it's by a large margin. The potential surprises are mostly for the GOP (OH, PA, WI, and MT) while democrats have a long shot at TN if republicans nominate someone terrible.

I really hope PA will be the surprise. Lou Barletta is great and has already announced his run. Unfortunately, Bob Casey Jr is inaccurately perceived as a moderate due to the fact that his father (former gov Robert Casey Sr) was and he has tons of money. Trump would need to have approval above 50% in PA for the upset to be likely. Ohio, Wisconsin, and Montana tend to elect Republicans in state wide elections, but again would need Trump to be fairly popular for a campaign of "oust the obstructionists" to work on entrenched incumbents with no big scandals.

I'll also throw in the possibility of a weird Alabama election in 2018 if Moore is elected then expelled from the Senate.

[Keep cool-idge]

What think as of November 22th 2017

Dean heller holding on by 0.4%

Dino Rossi Winning by 4.5%

Larry hogan wins by 6 points

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

To the McCaskill fans haters, the surprise will be her losing winning by 7.

FTFY

In all actuality, +7 D is actually my current prediction for the Missouri Senate Race (52-45).

The real thing that will surprise a lot of people that will actually happen is Larry Hogan losing by double digits.

[BudgieForce]

Ted Cruz going down.

[gottsu]

For me, it would be:

- unseating Speaker Ryan
- Kyrsten Sinema wins in AZ
- Democrats gain less than 20-22 seats in House

[Holmes]

Democrats win three of Kansas' four House seats.

[DFL]

For me, it would be:

- unseating Speaker Ryan
- Kyrsten Sinema wins in AZ
- Democrats gain less than 20-22 seats in House

Randy Bryce would be my forever hero.

Also Sinema winning is very much the likeliest outcome in AZ right now...

[Bidenworth2020]

when the 57th formerly republican house is called for the democrats.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

-No more then 5 incumbent federal House reps running for reelection will lose renomination while no incumbent senator running for reelection will lose renomination. (this might not be that shocking)

-Despite 2018 being an overall strong Democratic night Republicans will gain at least one house seat, one senate seat and one Governor seat.

-Democrats will beat the polling average in individual Senate/Governor by an average of anywhere from 2-4 points 

-Democrats won't improve on Hillary Clinton's margins with Hispanic voters by more then three points in the National house exit poll despite winning the PV by more then 5 points.

-One of Scott Walker, Larry Hogan,  Chris Sununu will win Re-election with the other two being defeated.

-Democrats will pick up at least one of the following Governors seats: Iowa, Kansas or Georgia.

-Democrats will not come within 7 points of winning any currently held Republican senate seat with the exception of Nevada

-out of Texas, Georgia and Arizona Democrats will only pick up TX-23 from Republicans. 

[SamTilden2020]

Heller and Sinema both win in 2018

[Pericles]

The polls are in fact biased against the Democrats, who outperform the generic ballot by several points.