Could democrats be underrated in Texas???

[GlobeSoc]

Latinos could brigade the polls, I don't know. This could mean that whoever R's nominate for TX-2 and TX-21 is DOA and a lot of other districts are tossups.

[Bidenworth2020]

lol no republican is 'DOA' in a R+11 district

anyway, polls are pretty accurate if not a slight lean to democrats

[Young Conservative]

No. On thieves forum they are overrated.

[Dr. MB]

The thing about many Texas, NM, and Oklahoma Hispanics is that they vote Republican, especially in north Texas, where Trump won the Hispanic vote in some counties, that's why Will Hurd can win in an overwhelmingly Hispanic district.

As it looks now I think O'Rourke gets within 7 or 8 points but doesn't manage to beat Cruz. Things can change, though.

[KingSweden]

I’m going to be skeptical that’s the case, at least for now

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

I’m going to be skeptical that’s the case, at least for now

[wxtransit]

The thing about many Texas, NM, and Oklahoma Hispanics is that they vote Republican, especially in north Texas, where Trump won the Hispanic vote in some counties, that's why Will Hurd can win in an overwhelmingly Hispanic district.

As it looks now I think O'Rourke gets within 7 or 8 points but doesn't manage to beat Cruz. Things can change, though.

Can confirm.

[Orser67]

I do wonder if there's an outside chance of a House wave in Texas. Obviously Hurd's seat in Southwest Texas is competitive, and then there are the two Clinton-Republican seats (Texas-7 near Houston and Texas-32 near Dallas) that should be at least somewhat competitive.

But then on top of that, there are a bunch of seats that could be wave targets. Clinton won at least 40% of the vote in Texas-2 (open seat), Texas-3 (open seat), Texas-6, Texas-10, Texas-21 (open seat), Texas-22, Texas-24, Texas-25, and Texas-31. And then of course there's Cruz's Senate seat. If the Republicans have a really bad election, some of these seats, especially the open seats, could plausibly go Democrat.

[Gass3268]

Nate Cohen thinks it's possible

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Sorry, no.

[Tekken_Guy]

Yeah. Dems haven't been really talking about Texas besides the Culberson, Hurd, and Sessions seats. Ted Poe's and Sam Johnson's old seats should be up for play. And don't underestimate the Marchant/Olson/McCaul/Williams seats.

[Adam Griffin]

To borrow from Trump, Texas is a real dummymander: probably the worst nationally in the event of a real wave. Imagine a scenario where Democrats pick up, say, 100 seats, and you're looking at around 15 of those seats coming out of TX.

 

[KingSweden]

Yeah. Dems haven't been really talking about Texas besides the Culberson, Hurd, and Sessions seats. Ted Poe's and Sam Johnson's old seats should be up for play. And don't underestimate the Marchant/Olson/McCaul/Williams seats.

I think that’s a bit ambitious. Let’s start with those first three and go from there

[MarkD]

Please do not assume that wherever there are lots of Hispanics, there are a commensurate number of Hispanic voters. Congressional districts in Texas, Arizona, and California that have a high percentage of Hispanic population have much lower voter turnout. The reason for that is a large portion of the Hispanic population are not U.S. citizens and so are not eligible to vote.

[The Mikado]

Please do not assume that wherever there are lots of Hispanics, there are a commensurate number of Hispanic voters. Congressional districts in Texas, Arizona, and California that have a high percentage of Hispanic population have much lower voter turnout. The reason for that is a large portion of the Hispanic population are not U.S. citizens and so are not eligible to vote.

Also, Hispanics are a very young demographic group and a disproportinately high share of them are under 18.

[henster]

TX Dems problem is they do so poorly with anglos that it doesn't really matter if Latinos turnout at better rates. Must make inroads with white voters which no one down there has figured out how to do.

[Figueira]

If Democrats can get their potential voters in Texas to actually vote, then yes, many exciting things can happen there.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

TX Dems problem is they do so poorly with anglos that it doesn't really matter if Latinos turnout at better rates. Must make inroads with white voters which no one down there has figured out how to do.

I think running a pro-gun candidate is a big start. a pro-gun Democrat should instantly do at least 5% better with whites in Texas than a Democrat who supports gun control openly.

[The Mikado]

TX Dems problem is they do so poorly with anglos that it doesn't really matter if Latinos turnout at better rates. Must make inroads with white voters which no one down there has figured out how to do.

I think running a pro-gun candidate is a big start. a pro-gun Democrat should instantly do at least 5% better with whites in Texas than a Democrat who supports gun control openly.

Someone is clearly unfamiliar with how pro-gun the Texas Dems were, consistently, through the 1990s and 2000s when they were going extinct.

No one cares if you are pro-gun if your first vote in the House is to make Nancy Pelosi Speaker.

EDIT: My point is that individual candidate positions matter much less than they used to.

[IceSpear]

EDIT: My point is that individual candidate positions matter much less than they used to.

Same for campaigns in general.

[Young Conservative]

Democrats could have a very good year, but they're overhyping themselves so much with posts like this.

[Skill and Chance]

Nate Cohen thinks it's possible

That is because projecting the VA-GOV 2017 turnout patterns onto Texas makes for a toss up race statewide.  Of course, VA-GOV is always an open seat and none of the major statewide races in Texas will be.  Cruz needs to lose or get seriously messed with in the primary for Beto to actually win, but I think it could easily be a Cruz +5 situation.