What circumstances would result in this map?
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  What circumstances would result in this map?
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Author Topic: What circumstances would result in this map?  (Read 1195 times)
twenty42
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« on: November 22, 2017, 12:34:19 AM »

And what would the popular vote figures be?



It’s a 289-249 D win, by the way.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2017, 12:35:54 AM »

And what would the popular vote figures be?



It’s a 289-249 D win, by the way.
2020: Trump bottoms out in the sun belt suburbs but maintains most of his support with working-class whites.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2017, 01:00:24 AM »

And what would the popular vote figures be?



It’s a 289-249 D win, by the way.
2020: Trump bottoms out in the sun belt suburbs but maintains most of his support with working-class whites.

Yeah, this. I think MN would stay D, as the swing against him in the suburbs more than makes up any advantages he may have picked up in rural MN.
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Devils30
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« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2017, 01:01:57 AM »

Trump keeps his support with WWC, even gains more in the midwest but falls off a cliff with white college grads.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2017, 02:48:14 AM »

Trump keeps his support with WWC, even gains more in the midwest but falls off a cliff with white college grads.

Maine would likely flip though, but basically yea.

Also it would have to be limited to sunbelt white college grads combined with substantially higher minority turnout. Which would make that map very plausible. This means that Trump would hold up better in some suburbs then others.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #5 on: November 22, 2017, 07:04:21 AM »

Agreed with the above. This is pretty much Kamala’s most viable path to victory with Michigan being a toss-up.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #6 on: November 22, 2017, 07:29:21 AM »

I'd give the D Ohio also, given its bellwether status.
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #7 on: November 22, 2017, 10:09:59 AM »

Trump keeps his support with WWC, even gains more in the midwest but falls off a cliff with white college grads.

Maine would likely flip though, but basically yea.

Also it would have to be limited to sunbelt white college grads combined with substantially higher minority turnout. Which would make that map very plausible. This means that Trump would hold up better in some suburbs then others.

This sounds right
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2017, 05:31:19 PM »

I'd give the D Ohio also, given its bellwether status.


Missouri was the perfect bellwether until 2008. Ohio seems to be going the same way. Florida is probably a better one now. No way Ohio votes D while PA, WI, MI, and MN vote R.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #9 on: November 23, 2017, 07:06:23 PM »

Honestly, if this map is true, it shows the holes in the GOP's Rust Belt Strategy.
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WestVegeta
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2017, 01:11:18 PM »

Looks like Julian Castro got the nomination, where Castro overwhelmingly pulls the Latino vote, and where Castro is close enough to Clinton ideologically where he appeals to the Atlanta suburbs. No clue who the VP would be, probably someone with WWC appeal. Maybe John Bel Edwards?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: November 24, 2017, 01:34:39 PM »

If special elections are any indication, New Hampshire has turned violently against Trump.
I doubt they would vote to reelect Trump while the country at large goes to the opposite direction.
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YE
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« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2017, 02:13:26 PM »

Kamala Harris with Trump at 38-40% approval. Of course this strategy kills the Democrats in the Senate long-term so this is a no go.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #13 on: November 24, 2017, 02:25:45 PM »

If special elections are any indication, New Hampshire has turned violently against Trump.
I doubt they would vote to reelect Trump while the country at large goes to the opposite direction.

But Bush won it in 2000 and it's actually a Republican state at heart because something something tax policy independent streak prone to wild swings!

After Democrats landslide margins last year (2,000 votes for President and 1,000 votes for senate) and the state having trended Republican in 2008, 2012, and 2016, we can conclude that angry white women have turned the state Solid D.
Ouch.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #14 on: November 24, 2017, 03:25:27 PM »

If special elections are any indication, New Hampshire has turned violently against Trump.
I doubt they would vote to reelect Trump while the country at large goes to the opposite direction.

But Bush won it in 2000 and it's actually a Republican state at heart because something something tax policy independent streak prone to wild swings!

After Democrats landslide margins last year (2,000 votes for President and 1,000 votes for senate) and the state having trended Republican in 2008, 2012, and 2016, we can conclude that angry white women have turned the state Solid D.

LOL, well that stuff doesn't matter, duh!
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: November 24, 2017, 07:39:35 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2017, 07:44:31 PM by MT Treasurer »

If special elections are any indication, New Hampshire has turned violently against Trump.
I doubt they would vote to reelect Trump while the country at large goes to the opposite direction.

But Bush won it in 2000 and it's actually a Republican state at heart because something something tax policy independent streak prone to wild swings!

After Democrats landslide margins last year (2,000 votes for President and 1,000 votes for senate) and the state having trended Republican in 2008, 2012, and 2016, we can conclude that angry white women have turned the state Solid D.

LOL, well that stuff doesn't matter, duh!

You two can believe whatever you want or whatever supports your narrative, we'll see in one and three years how Republican those libertarian, wealthy suburbanites (Wink) still are.

Also, you didn't actually address Lyndon's point. Republicans have gotten clobbered in all NH special elections so far.

After Democrats landslide margins last year (2,000 votes for President and 1,000 votes for senate) and the state having trended Republican in 2008, 2012, and 2016, we can conclude that angry white women have turned the state Solid D.

*2,736 votes, mind you. Which is not THAT close in a state like NH. Sure, she undeperformed in the state, but you'd think that the GOP would be able to win a "swing" state that is like 93% White in an election in which they're winning the White vote by 20 points nationally. The state also has an all-Democratic Congressional delegation and McCain/Romney/Trump were all considered "good fits" for NH and still couldn't win it. Chris Sununu only won by 2 against a weak opponent despite his "last name" and emphasizing his liberal stance on most social issues (especially abortion). He only lost the female vote by 7, whereas Trump and Ayotte both lost it by 13. He didn't do significantly better with males, the reason he won was the female vote.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: November 24, 2017, 08:40:34 PM »
« Edited: November 24, 2017, 08:45:15 PM by MT Treasurer »

Yeah, like I said I was surprised that the state was so close (and that Sununu won the gubernatorial race), but I still don't believe that there is enough evidence to support your theory that NH is trending Republican in the long term, especially if you believe that ME was just an "outlier" or a "one-off". We'll see in 2018 and 2020, though. Maybe I'm wrong and the state is actually trending Republican, but I seriously doubt it. There's certainly a lot at stake for me and IceSpear next year.

Also, I wasn't assessing the effectiveness of the Republican Party's electoral strategy. Like, not at all. But if Trumpism is the reason why Republicans can't win in NH, then why did Romney get crushed there?
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mcmikk
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« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2017, 08:58:13 PM »

Yeah, like I said I was surprised that the state was so close (and that Sununu won the gubernatorial race), but I still don't believe that there is enough evidence to support your theory that NH is trending Republican in the long term, especially if you believe that ME was just an "outlier" or a "one-off". We'll see in 2018 and 2020, though. Maybe I'm wrong and the state is actually trending Republican, but I seriously doubt it.
But what happened to all those angry NH women that made it titanium D? Something tells me your sample size that this assertion is based on is a little shallow 😉
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: November 24, 2017, 09:02:14 PM »

Sununu will probably lose in 2018 since it’s a GOP WH midterm. You’ll also probably see plenty of Midwestern states elect Democrats (even Wississippi probably will elect a Democrat) but that doesn’t mean these states aren’t moving toward the GOP column long term.

That's why I said and 2020. Also, it's not as if the governor's race is the only race on the ballot, control of the State House and the Senate will be at stake as well. We'll see what happens in the Executive Council, Democrats should defeat at least one Republican.

I doubt that Walker, Reynolds, Husted, etc. are more likely to lose than Sununu, though. But again, only time will tell, and there's simply no point in arguing about this. I just find this forum's fixation on NH incredibly bizarre, tbh.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #19 on: November 24, 2017, 10:33:38 PM »

Sununu will probably lose in 2018 since it’s a GOP WH midterm. You’ll also probably see plenty of Midwestern states elect Democrats (even Wississippi probably will elect a Democrat) but that doesn’t mean these states aren’t moving toward the GOP column long term.

That's why I said and 2020. Also, it's not as if the governor's race is the only race on the ballot, control of the State House and the Senate will be at stake as well. We'll see what happens in the Executive Council, Democrats should defeat at least one Republican.

I doubt that Walker, Reynolds, Husted, etc. are more likely to lose than Sununu, though. But again, only time will tell, and there's simply no point in arguing about this.

Those three states all voted to the right of NH so is it really that suprising that the republicans have a better shot at the gubernatorial races there than in NH?

Anyhow, when demographics, economics, and climate change finally put the GOP in the corner they’ll have to come to grips with the changing electorate and will need to dump the most toxic elements of their Party to win a national election. They’ll make inroads in NH at this point (dumping their Buchananite-Trumpian southern strategy offensive and overtly religious insanity).

The 2012 autopsy will be vindicated in the 2020’s.
Agreed.  I think the only socially conservative plank they'll keep in the long-term is gun rights.
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