What circumstances would result in this map?

[MT Treasurer]

If special elections are any indication, New Hampshire has turned violently against Trump.
I doubt they would vote to reelect Trump while the country at large goes to the opposite direction.

But Bush won it in 2000 and it's actually a Republican state at heart because something something tax policy independent streak prone to wild swings!

After Democrats landslide margins last year (2,000 votes for President and 1,000 votes for senate) and the state having trended Republican in 2008, 2012, and 2016, we can conclude that angry white women have turned the state Solid D.

LOL, well that stuff doesn't matter, duh!

You two can believe whatever you want or whatever supports your narrative, we'll see in one and three years how Republican those libertarian, wealthy suburbanites () still are.

Also, you didn't actually address Lyndon's point. Republicans have gotten clobbered in all NH special elections so far.

After Democrats landslide margins last year (2,000 votes for President and 1,000 votes for senate) and the state having trended Republican in 2008, 2012, and 2016, we can conclude that angry white women have turned the state Solid D.

*2,736 votes, mind you. Which is not THAT close in a state like NH. Sure, she undeperformed in the state, but you'd think that the GOP would be able to win a "swing" state that is like 93% White in an election in which they're winning the White vote by 20 points nationally. The state also has an all-Democratic Congressional delegation and McCain/Romney/Trump were all considered "good fits" for NH and still couldn't win it. Chris Sununu only won by 2 against a weak opponent despite his "last name" and emphasizing his liberal stance on most social issues (especially abortion). He only lost the female vote by 7, whereas Trump and Ayotte both lost it by 13. He didn't do significantly better with males, the reason he won was the female vote.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, like I said I was surprised that the state was so close (and that Sununu won the gubernatorial race), but I still don't believe that there is enough evidence to support your theory that NH is trending Republican in the long term, especially if you believe that ME was just an "outlier" or a "one-off". We'll see in 2018 and 2020, though. Maybe I'm wrong and the state is actually trending Republican, but I seriously doubt it. There's certainly a lot at stake for me and IceSpear next year.

Also, I wasn't assessing the effectiveness of the Republican Party's electoral strategy. Like, not at all. But if Trumpism is the reason why Republicans can't win in NH, then why did Romney get crushed there?

[MT Treasurer]

Sununu will probably lose in 2018 since it’s a GOP WH midterm. You’ll also probably see plenty of Midwestern states elect Democrats (even Wississippi probably will elect a Democrat) but that doesn’t mean these states aren’t moving toward the GOP column long term.

That's why I said and 2020. Also, it's not as if the governor's race is the only race on the ballot, control of the State House and the Senate will be at stake as well. We'll see what happens in the Executive Council, Democrats should defeat at least one Republican.

I doubt that Walker, Reynolds, Husted, etc. are more likely to lose than Sununu, though. But again, only time will tell, and there's simply no point in arguing about this. I just find this forum's fixation on NH incredibly bizarre, tbh.