What circumstances would result in this map?

[libertpaulian]

I'd give the D Ohio also, given its bellwether status.

[libertpaulian]

Honestly, if this map is true, it shows the holes in the GOP's Rust Belt Strategy.

[libertpaulian]

If special elections are any indication, New Hampshire has turned violently against Trump.
I doubt they would vote to reelect Trump while the country at large goes to the opposite direction.

But Bush won it in 2000 and it's actually a Republican state at heart because something something tax policy independent streak prone to wild swings!

After Democrats landslide margins last year (2,000 votes for President and 1,000 votes for senate) and the state having trended Republican in 2008, 2012, and 2016, we can conclude that angry white women have turned the state Solid D.

Ouch.

[libertpaulian]

Sununu will probably lose in 2018 since it’s a GOP WH midterm. You’ll also probably see plenty of Midwestern states elect Democrats (even Wississippi probably will elect a Democrat) but that doesn’t mean these states aren’t moving toward the GOP column long term.

That's why I said and 2020. Also, it's not as if the governor's race is the only race on the ballot, control of the State House and the Senate will be at stake as well. We'll see what happens in the Executive Council, Democrats should defeat at least one Republican.

I doubt that Walker, Reynolds, Husted, etc. are more likely to lose than Sununu, though. But again, only time will tell, and there's simply no point in arguing about this.

Those three states all voted to the right of NH so is it really that suprising that the republicans have a better shot at the gubernatorial races there than in NH?

Anyhow, when demographics, economics, and climate change finally put the GOP in the corner they’ll have to come to grips with the changing electorate and will need to dump the most toxic elements of their Party to win a national election. They’ll make inroads in NH at this point (dumping their Buchananite-Trumpian southern strategy offensive and overtly religious insanity).

The 2012 autopsy will be vindicated in the 2020’s.

Agreed.  I think the only socially conservative plank they'll keep in the long-term is gun rights.