Will the Democratic ticket ever be two white men again?

[I’m not Stu]

Probably at some point.

[Skill and Chance]

Probably not until after 2040.  I could absolutely see multiple white men winning the Dem nomination during 2020-40, including a heterosexual Christian white man, but what I can't see is this person picking another white man as his VP with the party coalitions being anything close to what they are today.  Now, if Great Depression 2.0 happens in the 2020's and the elections become entirely about economics, this becomes more plausible.

[kcguy]

Just doing some statistics:


Assume white men make up 35% of the adult American population.

If two American adults are picked at random, the odds of them both being white men is about 12%.

If a different duo of people is chosen randomly for five events, then the odds of at least one duo containing two white men is just under 50/50.


Comparing random groups to reality:
1.  White men probably make up a majority of Republican voters, so conversely white men probably make up less than 35% of Democratic voters.  RESULT:  Lower odds.
2.  White men still hold a disproportionate amount of power.  (I haven't counted the number of white male senators, but I'm guessing it's still over 75%.)  RESULT:  Higher odds.
3.  Candidates are sometimes repeated over multiple elections.  RESULT:  Lower odds.


Overall, I think the above three mostly cancel each other out.  I would guess that it's quite a bit more likely than not that at least one Democratic ticket before 2050 will contain two white men.

[Skill and Chance]

Just doing some statistics:


Assume white men make up 35% of the adult American population.

If two American adults are picked at random, the odds of them both being white men is about 12%.

If a different duo of people is chosen randomly for five events, then the odds of at least one duo containing two white men is just under 50/50.


Comparing random groups to reality:
1.  White men probably make up a majority of Republican voters, so conversely white men probably make up less than 35% of Democratic voters.  RESULT:  Lower odds.
2.  White men still hold a disproportionate amount of power.  (I haven't counted the number of white male senators, but I'm guessing it's still over 75%.)  RESULT:  Higher odds.
3.  Candidates are sometimes repeated over multiple elections.  RESULT:  Lower odds.


Overall, I think the above three mostly cancel each other out.  I would guess that it's quite a bit more likely than not that at least one Democratic ticket before 2050 will contain two white men.

The issue is that, on the Democratic side, there is perceived to be a particularly strong benefit from picking a VP who is demographically different from yourself.  It would take a substantial realignment to change this.

[I’m not Stu]

Just doing some statistics:


Assume white men make up 35% of the adult American population.

If two American adults are picked at random, the odds of them both being white men is about 12%.

If a different duo of people is chosen randomly for five events, then the odds of at least one duo containing two white men is just under 50/50.


Comparing random groups to reality:
1.  White men probably make up a majority of Republican voters, so conversely white men probably make up less than 35% of Democratic voters.  RESULT:  Lower odds.
2.  White men still hold a disproportionate amount of power.  (I haven't counted the number of white male senators, but I'm guessing it's still over 75%.)  RESULT:  Higher odds.
3.  Candidates are sometimes repeated over multiple elections.  RESULT:  Lower odds.


Overall, I think the above three mostly cancel each other out.  I would guess that it's quite a bit more likely than not that at least one Democratic ticket before 2050 will contain two white men.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Just doing some statistics:


Assume white men make up 35% of the adult American population.

If two American adults are picked at random, the odds of them both being white men is about 12%.

If a different duo of people is chosen randomly for five events, then the odds of at least one duo containing two white men is just under 50/50.


Comparing random groups to reality:
1.  White men probably make up a majority of Republican voters, so conversely white men probably make up less than 35% of Democratic voters.  RESULT:  Lower odds.
2.  White men still hold a disproportionate amount of power.  (I haven't counted the number of white male senators, but I'm guessing it's still over 75%.)  RESULT:  Higher odds.
3.  Candidates are sometimes repeated over multiple elections.  RESULT:  Lower odds.


Overall, I think the above three mostly cancel each other out.  I would guess that it's quite a bit more likely than not that at least one Democratic ticket before 2050 will contain two white men.

The issue is that, on the Democratic side, there is perceived to be a particularly strong benefit from picking a VP who is demographically different from yourself.  It would take a substantial realignment to change this.

Except that with the exception of Obama who obviously picked Biden for plenty of other reasons, no Democratic nominee has ever done this.

[TML]

If it happens that both people have closely aligned political philosophies and are popular among the general public, then it could happen.