How will the Jewish vote go?
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  How will the Jewish vote go?
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Author Topic: How will the Jewish vote go?  (Read 1785 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: November 22, 2017, 10:45:06 PM »

How will the Jewish vote trend in the next several years? Trump has all of his problems but the Republicans do at least have a pro-Israel/anti-BDS stance. Are Jews moving leftward or rightward?
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Pennsylvania Deplorable
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« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2017, 11:19:40 PM »

Jews have always been on the left. They gave more votes to Socialist Party candidate Debbs than Republican Coolidge while the later won a landslide and the former was in single digits nationally.

Israel isn't the top concern of most Jews, who have always been on the forefront of social liberal causes. Orthodox Jews, a minority within the broader Jewish category, are socially conservative, pro-Israel, and generally Republican. The polarization between the orthodox and the semi-secular Jews is likely to keep growing as the former trend right and the later trend left even more if possible.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2017, 11:45:33 PM »
« Edited: November 22, 2017, 11:52:25 PM by darklordoftech »

The last Republican to win the Jewish vote was Harding, and that was only because Debs took votes away from Cox. Since then, every Democratic nominee has won the Jewish vote, from John W. Davis to Al Smith to Adlai Stevenson (both times) to George McGovern to Walter Mondale. As for how the Jewish vote will trend, it has always trended the same way as the overall electorate. http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-voting-record-in-u-s-presidential-elections

Also keep in mind that the "alt-right" alienates more Jews than Israel attracts.
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BRTD
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2017, 11:09:26 AM »

A common misconception amongst conservatives seems to be that Israel is the #1 issue for most Jews. Most that have never been there or have family there really don't care about it. And furthermore its not as if the Democratic Party is openly pro-BDS. There's no reason to expect the Jewish vote to shift.
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BlueDogDemocrat
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2017, 12:16:50 PM »

I think that Jews will continue to vote democratic but by increasingly smaller margins due to the increase of Orthodox Judaism the most religious and Conservative voting branch of the religion who have a much higher birthrate than the other branches of Judaism.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2017, 12:36:32 PM »

I think that Jews will continue to vote democratic but by increasingly smaller margins due to the increase of Orthodox Judaism the most religious and Conservative voting branch of the religion who have a much higher birthrate than the other branches of Judaism.
I don't see any indication that Jews will trend/swing right.
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Dr. MB
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2017, 01:23:07 PM »

Jews of the Reform, Reconstructionist, and even Conservative branches will keep voting Democratic unless some drastic thing shifts their vote.
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kcguy
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2017, 09:28:59 PM »

A common misconception amongst conservatives seems to be that Israel is the #1 issue for most Jews. Most that have never been there or have family there really don't care about it. And furthermore its not as if the Democratic Party is openly pro-BDS. There's no reason to expect the Jewish vote to shift.

I remember an anecdote from the 2000 election, where one voter--a Christian fundamentalist from some place like South Carolina--told Joe Liebermann that he liked him but couldn't vote for him because Lieberman hadn't "accepted Jesus Christ as his Lord and Savior".

For Jews, I suspect that support for a foreign country many have never visited is probably a secondary issue to being told by their fellow Americans that they're unfit for public office in their own country.

If there's any party platform out there that even vaguely hints at the superiority or centrality of Christianity (and therefore implies the inferiority or marginality of non-Christians), it's likely to be a huge turn-off.
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YE
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« Reply #8 on: November 24, 2017, 12:10:59 AM »

R if Dems nominate someone who is perceived as an anti-Semite in the same sense Corbyn is (moderately unfairly) smeared as.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2017, 01:12:26 AM »

R if Dems nominate someone who is perceived as an anti-Semite in the same sense Corbyn is (moderately unfairly) smeared as.
The perception and smears surrounding Corbyn are products of how the UK's Parliament works. It's unlikely that Corbyn would be perceived as an anti-semite if he was American.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2017, 04:23:34 PM »

My good friend Bernie Bernstein of the big evil media companies tells me no way they are voting GOP
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2017, 10:43:46 PM »

Overall it will continue to trend Democratic at the Presidential level, until Republicans elect a "normal" generic Republican type candidate (Which likely won't happen until 2024 at the earliest).

Although I hate throwing out anecdotal stuff as facts, especially involving segments of the Jewish diaspora scattered around the US, my older Sister is Orthodox Jewish and are fixtures of the Community in their Temple in South Seattle....

Their Eldest Children have now come of age and are married to Orthodox Jewish families in Pennsylvania, and the next few have been living in Orthodox Jewish Communities in Metro NYC while attending "Pre-College" classes within a tight-knit and culturally conservative community.

Her precinct that was overwhelmingly Orthodox Jewish went 90-5 Clinton, right by the Shul where her and family have lived for almost two decades....

The Orthodox Jewish Community that my eldest niece married into from Pittsburgh, had the Patriarch of the Family that was totally NRA Gun fan, and also an extremely vocal proponent of expansion of Israeli settlements within Judea and Samaria....

Although the after Wedding family dialogue was a bit awkward when these topics were discussed, especially after the Patriarch of the other family went on an Anti-Obama diatribe, Shuah my Nieces Husband, as well as much of his Family of Millennial Age, are not big proponents of the "Traditional" Orthodox perspective on a wide range of social and political issues....

Personal anecdotes aside, obviously the various ranges of the "Orthodox Community" (Which in Judaism encompasses an extremely wide range of different perspectives), is not the monolithic entity that some might perceive it to be....

Obviously Jewish-Americans care very deeply about the future of the Israel, and are well cognizant about the existential threat to a Nation that was literally founded upon the ashes of the Holocaust...

Still, the whole idea that Jewish-American voters somehow view Republican and Democratic debates regarding the region as the major impetus for their votes, ignores the fact that Democratic and Republican Presidents alike ever since 1948 have been strong supporters of Israel, although sometimes Israeli domestic politics have created significant differences of opinion, especially since the late '70s/early 80s, since we had individuals such as Amos Oz and many others represent the original Zionist argument against War, where arguably the War in Lebanon was the first major Israeli Military act of aggression, other than the Wars of self-defense that previously we had fought to protect our homeland against external assault.

Wrapping it up, Millennial Jewish-Americans, even those of Orthodox backgrounds are swinging heavily Democratic... Obviously the only question mark is how will newer Jewish-American immigrants to America vote, that tend to come overwhelmingly Eastern-European backgrounds since shortly before the end of the Cold War, when Gorbachev allowed Millions of Jews from the former USSR to leave, after decades and centuries of political persecution from both Monarchs and Communists alike....

We will never forget the history, where America stood virtually alone in the World at the height of Nazism in Europe, nor the way that it stood up for the plight of Jewish Americans in Soviet Russia, but still Jewish-Americans are not one trick ponies dominated by one nor another political party, and it appears that whatever gains George W. might have achieved back in '04 is fading fast....

It's a bit odd where one sees a convergence of Faith-Based communities, from Mormons, Catholics, Jews, Muslims, and Mainline Christian denominations about some of the crap the current Pres has been spewing since even before he was elected....

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TDAS04
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« Reply #12 on: November 28, 2017, 12:44:37 PM »

Jews are not going to be majority Republican any time soon. 
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2017, 12:28:05 PM »

A common misconception amongst conservatives seems to be that Israel is the #1 issue for most Jews. Most that have never been there or have family there really don't care about it. And furthermore its not as if the Democratic Party is openly pro-BDS. There's no reason to expect the Jewish vote to shift.
This. Being jewish myself, I can attest to this. Israel really is not that important to me right now.


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Esteemed Jimmy
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« Reply #14 on: November 29, 2017, 12:30:51 PM »

Jews are not going to be majority Republican any time soon. 
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I’m not Stu
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« Reply #15 on: January 04, 2018, 02:06:17 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2018, 02:07:50 PM by ERM64man »

Especially after what a man named George Lindell said at a Trump rally.
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King Lear
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« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2018, 04:55:09 AM »

My gut tells me if Democrats move to the Left on Economic issues and Foriegn Policy (as they should), the Jewish vote could Trend heavily Republican in 2020, I could easily imagine Trump winning 40% of the Jewish vote if Democrats nominate a more Left-wing candidate, remember most Jews lean conservative on financial issues (due to the their high incomes) and foreign policy (due to their strong support for Israel), and the main reason they vote Democratic is because of their Liberal social views (most support Abortion and Gay marriage) and the fact the Republican base of White Evangelicals believes all Nonchristians are going to hell. However If Democrats start supporting cracking down on Wall Street and adopting a Non-Interventionst approach to the Middile east, you could see droves of Moderate Jewish Democrats bolt the party and support Trump (who has deep ties to the Jewish community ie. Jared Kushner, Steve Mnuchin, Gary Cohn, and Stephen Miller), the only positive about this is because most Jews live in New York and California (which are Safe Democratic) this won’t effect the Electoral College that much.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2018, 05:03:00 AM »

My gut tells me if Democrats move to the Left on Economic issues and Foriegn Policy (as they should), the Jewish vote could Trend heavily Republican in 2020, I could easily imagine Trump winning 40% of the Jewish vote if Democrats nominate a more Left-wing candidate, remember most Jews lean conservative on financial issues (due to the their high incomes) and foreign policy (due to their strong support for Israel), and the main reason they vote Democratic is because of their Liberal social views (most support Abortion and Gay marriage) and the fact the Republican base of White Evangelicals believes all Nonchristians are going to hell. However If Democrats start supporting cracking down on Wall Street and adopting a Non-Interventionst approach to the Middile east, you could see droves of Moderate Jewish Democrats bolt the party and support Trump (who has deep ties to the Jewish community ie. Jared Kushner, Steve Mnuchin, Gary Cohn, and Stephen Miller), the only positive about this is because most Jews live in New York and California (which are Safe Democratic) this won’t effect the Electoral College that much.

Lol most American Jews are secular and definitely aren’t Zionists. But they certainly have influence on Democratic policy, so they won’t be supporting BDS or whatever insane fantasy you have.

Atlas has had entertaining right-wing trolls before. King Lear is not one of them.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2018, 10:22:24 AM »

Again, wealthy Democrats (and Jewish Americans both vote heavily Democratic and have higher median incomes than the average American, last I had seen) do not have markedly different views on economics than poor Democrats.  If Democrats "move to the left on economics," they're not going to lose Jewish voters, and they're not going to drop off in California, and they're not going to give up NOVA, etc.
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mvd10
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« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2018, 12:54:07 PM »

Again, wealthy Democrats (and Jewish Americans both vote heavily Democratic and have higher median incomes than the average American, last I had seen) do not have markedly different views on economics than poor Democrats.  If Democrats "move to the left on economics," they're not going to lose Jewish voters, and they're not going to drop off in California, and they're not going to give up NOVA, etc.

This is true btw. While wealthy and/or postgraduate Republicans are more (fiscally) conservative than poorer or less-educated Republicans wealthy Democrats have roughly the same viewpoints on economic issues as poorer Democrats. And well-educated Democrats actually are more liberal than less-educated Democrats.
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vileplume
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« Reply #20 on: January 06, 2018, 09:03:45 PM »

R if Dems nominate someone who is perceived as an anti-Semite in the same sense Corbyn is (moderately unfairly) smeared as.

The Jewish vote in Britain went Conservative long before Corbyn, he probably merely cemented their hostility to Labour. For example a poll for the Jewish Chronicle conducted before the 2017 election had Labour losing the Jewish vote 77%-13%. But the same poll conducted before the 2015 election (when Labour actually had a Jewish leader) had them down 69%-22%.

Similarly in the US if the nutty far left and their brand of antisemitism ever gain any influence of note in the Democratic Party the same thing will happen with Jewish voters over here. Though the proportion of Muslim voters in the US (undeniably a large source of both Labour votes and antisemitism in the UK) is much smaller and as I understand it Muslims in the US tend to be more progressive than those in Europe anyway so at the moment I doubt the Democratic Party will go the way of UK Labour.
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ERM64man
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« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2018, 01:23:49 PM »

Paul Nehlen won't help the Jewish vote trend GOP.
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