November prediction: which House seats will flip?

[windjammer]

Predict which House seats will flip!

[Pericles]

Democratic gains
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
IA-01
IA-03
IL-06
IL-14
KS-03
KY-06
ME-02
MN-02
MN-03
MT-AL
NE-02
NJ-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-24
OH-01
PA-06
PA-07
PA-16
SC-05
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
UT-04
VA-02
VA-10
WA-08

Republican gains
MN-01

Dems gain 35 seats, Republicans gain 1 seat, net Democratic gain of 34 seats leading to a 47-seat Republican majority in the House becoming a 21-seat Democratic majority.

2018 House elections
Nancy Pelosi-Democratic: 228+34 53.3%
Paul Ryan-Republican: 207-34 42.6%
435 seats
218 for majority

[Orser67]

Dems +35

Northeast: +11
NJ-02
NJ-03
NJ-07
NJ-11
NY-19
NY-22
NY-24
PA-06
PA-07
PA-08
PA-15

West: +8
CA-10
CA-25
CA-39
CA-45
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
WA-08

Midwest: +8
IA-01
IA-03
IL-06
KS-03
MI-08
MI-11
MN-02
MN-03

South: +8
FL-25
FL-26
FL-27
TX-07
TX-23
TX-32
VA-02
VA-10

Next 10 (just for fun):

CA-21
GA-06
GA-07
IL-12
IL-13
IL-14
ME-02
MN-01
PA-16
UT-04

[Devout Centrist]

Way too early to predict, but I can say with 95% confidence that the Democrats will pick up anywhere from 7-70 seats.

[Keep cool-idge]

Why won’t anyone listen to me?
It’s more likely that Jamie Herrera butler loses then Dino Rossi losing.

The trump supporters  and conservatives hate Jamie. Dino rossi is running in a seat that has voted democrat at the presidential level for a while but at the state level it’s almost always votes republican including voting for rossi in all 3 runs. Plus Romney and trump only lost WA-8 by 3 points. Bill Bryant who ran for governor against jay inslee won it by 8-10 points.

[Virginiá]

It’s more likely that Jamie Herrera butler loses then Dino Rossi losing.

WA-3 is a Romney-Trump district, and not all that close in 2016 either. Plus, she will have a small incumbent advantage as well. I wouldn't call her district safe, but WA-8 as an open seat in what will probably be a Dem wave year is exactly the kind of seat Democrats would be favored in.

If Rossi was already a multi-term incumbent in the seat, and/or it isn't a wave environment, I might actually agree with you.

Why won’t anyone listen to me?

I don't know, but maybe it has something to do with you being so adamant about Virginia's elections despite having absolutely no reason to be. This on top of people giving you good reasons not to be so confident, reasons which ultimately turned out to be true.

Personally I think you rely too much on old elections without realizing that the same things often don't apply in vastly different political environments.

[Devout Centrist]

Why won’t anyone listen to me?

Cause you’re a terrible psephologist

[Keep cool-idge]

It’s more likely that Jamie Herrera butler loses then Dino Rossi losing.

WA-3 is a Romney-Trump district, and not all that close in 2016 either. Plus, she will have a small incumbent advantage as well. I wouldn't call her district safe, but WA-8 as an open seat in what will probably be a Dem wave year is exactly the kind of seat Democrats would be favored in.

If Rossi was already a multi-term incumbent in the seat, and/or it isn't a wave environment, I might actually agree with you.

Why won’t anyone listen to me?

I don't know, but maybe it has something to do with you being so adamant about Virginia's elections despite having absolutely no reason to be. This on top of people giving you good reasons not to be so confident, reasons which ultimately turned out to be true.

Personally I think you rely too much on old elections without realizing that the same things often don't apply in vastly different political environments.

Well the reason I messed up Virginia was something that was totally outside my control and that is I didn’t expect that massive surge in turnout and I knew Charlottesville would be up 10% but I didn’t expect it in other places. Gillespie got more votes then any republican has ever gotten for governor in Virginia but northam blew that number so big Gillespie could never match it.

I know Washington 3 is a gop seat but I’m starting to think with lower turnout on the republican side because everyone will think she is safe that the democrats could pull of an upset,while in Washington 8 it’s harder when it’s known as a leaning republican swing congressional seat with a A list recruit and a ton of no names for the democrats.

[Virginiá]

Well the reason I messed up Virginia was something that was totally outside my control and that is I didn’t expect that massive surge in turnout and I knew Charlottesville would be up 10% but I didn’t expect it in other places. Gillespie got more votes then any republican has ever gotten for governor in Virginia but northam blew that number so big Gillespie could never match it.

But almost anyone should have been able to deduce the enthusiasm advantage Democrats had. You kept going on about how Republicans over-performed polls in Virginia under Obama, and people kept telling you that the reason they over-performed polls was because the party that doesn't control the White House tends to be more enthusiastic in voting and more likely to outperform their polls, especially when the president is unpopular. Republicans never had a structural advantage like you thought, but you kept ignoring people when they told you this.

Not only that, but Gillespie rarely led in the polls. I mean, on this alone, no one should have been gung-ho about Gillespie if you ask me.

while in Washington 8 it’s harder when it’s known as a leaning republican swing congressional seat with a A list recruit and a ton of no names for the democrats.

Lucky for Democrats that waves tend to sweep in no-names even over A list recruits in marginal districts.

[Keep cool-idge]

Well the reason I messed up Virginia was something that was totally outside my control and that is I didn’t expect that massive surge in turnout and I knew Charlottesville would be up 10% but I didn’t expect it in other places. Gillespie got more votes then any republican has ever gotten for governor in Virginia but northam blew that number so big Gillespie could never match it.

But almost anyone should have been able to deduce the enthusiasm advantage Democrats had. You kept going on about how Republicans over-performed polls in Virginia under Obama, and people kept telling you that the reason they over-performed polls was because the party that doesn't control the White House tends to be more enthusiastic in voting and more likely to outperform their polls, especially when the president is unpopular. Republicans never had a structural advantage like you thought, but you kept ignoring people when they told you this.

Not only that, but Gillespie rarely led in the polls. I mean, on this alone, no one should have been gung-ho about Gillespie if you ask me.

while in Washington 8 it’s harder when it’s known as a leaning republican swing congressional seat with a A list recruit and a ton of no names for the democrats.

Lucky for Democrats that waves tend to sweep in no-names even over A list recruits in marginal districts.

Again the argument I used was that the polls under estimated republicans and under a turnout model based on 2009-2013-2014 Gillespie would have won because he got the numbers in central and southwestern Virginia he needed but he got destroyed in all the suburbs I thought Gillespie would win chesterfield by 7-11 points and Virginia Beach by 2-6 points I did not see this wave coming.

Also in Washington 8 there are 10 democrats running and only republican and that’s Dino Rossi so there will be a split primary field in a leaning republican seat with mail in ballots not polling places. I think that favors Rossi big time.

[Young Conservative]

I see Democrats winning 20-30 seats max. I do not see either party having a large majority.

[Beet]

There are only 5 GOP-held seats that were even with a 5% margin of victory. CA-49, NE-2, TX-23, MN-2, and CA-10. Even if Democrats picked up every single one of them and didn't lose a single seat anywhere in the country, it would still only take them to 199.

[Mike Thick]

Democratic Gains (+22)
AZ-02
CA-10
CA-25
CA-48
CA-49
CO-06
FL-26
FL-27
IL-06
IA-01
KS-02
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NJ-02
NJ-11
NY-19
NY-22
TX-07
TX-23
VA-10
WA-08

[Virginiá]

There are only 5 GOP-held seats that were even with a 5% margin of victory. CA-49, NE-2, TX-23, MN-2, and CA-10. Even if Democrats picked up every single one of them and didn't lose a single seat anywhere in the country, it would still only take them to 199.

What they won in 2016 doesn't really matter. 2004 -> 2006 is littered with examples of incumbents who won landslide elections in 2004 only to get ousted in 2006, or at least come close. AZ-5 and CA-11, for example. Not to mention marginal GOP-held seats where the incumbent is retiring, making them much more competitive than they would have been otherwise.

[Orser67]

There are only 5 GOP-held seats that were even with a 5% margin of victory. CA-49, NE-2, TX-23, MN-2, and CA-10. Even if Democrats picked up every single one of them and didn't lose a single seat anywhere in the country, it would still only take them to 199.

By this logic, in 2010, Republicans shouldn't have picked up AZ-1, AZ-5, CO-3, CO-4, FL-2, FL-22, FL-24...I'm not even on G yet, and I've already found 7 seats in which Democratic incumbents won by more than 5% in 2008 but then lost in 2010.

[InheritTheWind]

AZ-2, CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-48, CA-49, CO-6, FL-26, FL-27, IL-6, IL-14, IA-1, KS-3, MI-6, MI-11, MN-1, MN-2, MT-AL, NE-2, NJ-2, NJ-7, NJ-11, NY-22, PA-7, TX-7, TX-23, VA-2, VA-5, VA-10, WA-8.

[IceSpear]

There are only 5 GOP-held seats that were even with a 5% margin of victory. CA-49, NE-2, TX-23, MN-2, and CA-10. Even if Democrats picked up every single one of them and didn't lose a single seat anywhere in the country, it would still only take them to 199.

This doesn't mean anything though. Plenty of Democrats won by a landslide in 2006 and/or 2008 than got crushed in 2010 anyway.

[Littlefinger]

D Gains:

AZ 2
CA 10
CA 21
CA 25
CA 45
CA 48
CA 49
CO 6
FL 18
FL 26
FL 27
IL 6
IA 1
IA 3
KY 6
ME 2
MI 8
MI 11
NE 2
NJ 2
NJ 3
NJ 11
NY 1
NY 19
NY 22
NY 24
NC 2
OH 1
PA 8
PA 15
TX 7
TX 23
TX 32
UT 4
VA 10
WV 3

R Gains
MN 1

 D+35

[Bidenworth2020]

There are only 5 GOP-held seats that were even with a 5% margin of victory. CA-49, NE-2, TX-23, MN-2, and CA-10. Even if Democrats picked up every single one of them and didn't lose a single seat anywhere in the country, it would still only take them to 199.

This doesn't mean anything though. Plenty of Democrats won by a landslide in 2006 and/or 2008 than got crushed in 2010 anyway.

[GoldenMainer]

Newly Elected Representatives for 2018:

ME02: Jared Golden
NY22: Anthony Brindisi
NJ02: Jeff Van Drew
NJ07: Linda Weber
NJ11: Mikie Sherrill
PA06: Chrissy Houlahan
PA08: Rachel Reddick
VA10: Lindsey Stover
NC09: Dan McCready
FL26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
FL27: Mary Barzee Flores
WV03: Richard Ojeda
KY06: Amy McGrath
MI08: Elissa Slotkin
MI11: Haley Stevens
IL06: Kelly Mazeski
IL12: Brendan Kelly
IA01: Abby Finkenauer
MN03: Dean Phillips
NE02: Brad Ashford
KS03: Andrea Ramsey
TX23: Gina Ortiz Jones
CO06: Jason Crow
UT04: Ben McAdams
WA08: Jason Rittereiser
CA10: Josh Harder
CA25: Katie Hill
CA39: Gil Cisneros
CA45: Katie Porter
CA48: Hans Keirstead
CA49: Mike Levin

D +31

[Keep cool-idge]

D Gains:

AZ 2
CA 10
CA 21
CA 25
CA 45
CA 48
CA 49
CO 6
FL 18
FL 26
FL 27
IL 6
IA 1
IA 3
KY 6
ME 2
MI 8
MI 11
NE 2
NJ 2
NJ 3
NJ 11
NY 1
NY 19
NY 22
NY 24
NC 2
OH 1
PA 8
PA 15
TX 7
TX 23
TX 32
UT 4
VA 10
WV 3

R Gains
MN 1

 D+35

Now I don’t totally agree with how many seats you gave the democrats but I will say that I’m glad you don’t have Washington 8 going democrat.

[LabourJersey]

Newly Elected Representatives for 2018:

ME02: Jared Golden
NY22: Anthony Brindisi
NJ02: Jeff Van Drew
NJ07: Linda Weber
NJ11: Mikie Sherrill
PA06: Chrissy Houlahan
PA08: Rachel Reddick
VA10: Lindsey Stover
NC09: Dan McCready
FL26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
FL27: Mary Barzee Flores
WV03: Richard Ojeda
KY06: Amy McGrath
MI08: Elissa Slotkin
MI11: Haley Stevens
IL06: Kelly Mazeski
IL12: Brendan Kelly
IA01: Abby Finkenauer
MN03: Dean Phillips
NE02: Brad Ashford
KS03: Andrea Ramsey
TX23: Gina Ortiz Jones
CO06: Jason Crow
UT04: Ben McAdams
WA08: Jason Rittereiser
CA10: Josh Harder
CA25: Katie Hill
CA39: Gil Cisneros
CA45: Katie Porter
CA48: Hans Keirstead
CA49: Mike Levin

D +31

Van Drew is favored for the Democratic nom, but that's not 100% guaranteed given how conservative his record is. If he gets the nom, that district is probably Lean/Likely D, though.

I've been following NJ-7 closely, and while I liked Weber (I've met her twice while working for a legislative campaign this summer) I think either Peter Jacobs or Tom Malinowski are going to win the primaries.

[Person Man]

Newly Elected Representatives for 2018:

ME02: Jared Golden
NY22: Anthony Brindisi
NJ02: Jeff Van Drew
NJ07: Linda Weber
NJ11: Mikie Sherrill
PA06: Chrissy Houlahan
PA08: Rachel Reddick
VA10: Lindsey Stover
NC09: Dan McCready
FL26: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
FL27: Mary Barzee Flores
WV03: Richard Ojeda
KY06: Amy McGrath
MI08: Elissa Slotkin
MI11: Haley Stevens
IL06: Kelly Mazeski
IL12: Brendan Kelly
IA01: Abby Finkenauer
MN03: Dean Phillips
NE02: Brad Ashford
KS03: Andrea Ramsey
TX23: Gina Ortiz Jones
CO06: Jason Crow
UT04: Ben McAdams
WA08: Jason Rittereiser
CA10: Josh Harder
CA25: Katie Hill
CA39: Gil Cisneros
CA45: Katie Porter
CA48: Hans Keirstead
CA49: Mike Levin

D +31

Van Drew is favored for the Democratic nom, but that's not 100% guaranteed given how conservative his record is. If he gets the nom, that district is probably Lean/Likely D, though.

I've been following NJ-7 closely, and while I liked Weber (I've met her twice while working for a legislative campaign this summer) I think either Peter Jacobs or Tom Malinowski are going to win the primaries.

How conservative? Centrist or GOP lite?

[Arkansas Yankee]

I think you are all being a little hard on Greedo.  Be a little tolerant. 

I believed most of last year that Trump would end up being wiped out and seriously drag down the GOP majority in the House and definitely lose the GOP senate majority. I bet most of you thought the same.

By Election Day I thought Trump would lose the popular and electoral vote and the GOP would lose the Senate (though I had hopes to keep it). I felt the House majority would hold, but never at the level it did.

We know how that all turned out.

I would not necessarily bet to strongly against Trump.  As a former Never Trumper, I am not sure he does not have some lucky charms in his pocket.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Inam not ready to make an over all prediction yet.  However I think coattails will save 3 seats mentioned by others as Democrat pickups. Abbott will have coattails in Texas and drag Culberson and Sessions through.  Hurd is probably a lost cause. If Romney runs, he will pull Mia Love along,.  I think he will campaign  hard for her in support of the only BlackGOP MEMBER OF THE HOUSE AND TO SHOW HIS POWER.  If he does not run, I am not ready to predict.

In 2010 I think Cuomo helped save some NY districts. Not so in 2014. Districts 1, 21, 22,23 and 27 remained Democrat by relatively small numbers they only switched between 2012 and 2014. Only 19 and 20 turned in 2010.

I also think theDemocrats lost their surprise chance in SC 5.  It will stay Republican.