Iowa Consolidation to 4 Districts

[jimrtex]

These are the 17 Regional Council of Governments in Iowa. Each is a potential congressional district. Populations are based on 2016 estimates projected to 2020, and are relative to a quota of just short of 800,000.



In each round, the districts with the least population will be eliminated, and the counties will join other neighboring regions. Each county will make an independent decision. The decision will be made by a redistricting jury (popularly referred to as a redistricting caucus) selected randomly from voters. There might be one juror per 2-5,000 persons, with a minimum of 10 persons.

Interest groups may make presentations. For example, groups from larger cities may advocate for districts based on Waterloo, Cedar Rapids, Dubuque, Davenport, Des Moines, Council Bluffs, or Sioux City. Manufacturing groups, farming groups, chambers of commerce might make presentations, as could political parties. Political parties would want to avoid being to direct in their interest, but that somehow it was good for the community.

In Round 1, the three districts to be eliminated are:

Chariton Valley (0.44)
Southern Iowa COG (SICOG) 0.64
Region XII (west central) 0.89

An option would be for two (or more) adjacent eliminated regions to merge. In this case, it was generally agreed that merging all three would be too unwieldy, particularly with Region XII being isolated. There was some interest in a merger of Chariton Valley and SICOG, but once it was realized that the merged region would be eliminated in the next round, these fell through.

Chariton Valley:
This area was once part of Area XV to the east. Presumably there are no hard feelings, but just that a 10-county region was too unwieldy. Isolated and rural as they are, they would not even consider joining Des Moines. All four counties join Area XV.

Southern Iowa (SICOG)

The three western counties (Adair, Adams, Taylor) have no problems joining the southwestern region (SWIPCO). The other four, (Clarke, Decatur, Ringgold, Union) had favored the merger with Chariton Valley and might consider joining Area XV as an effort to create a southern Iowa district.

Region XII:

Crawford and Sac join Siouxland (SIMPCO), Audobon joins SWIPCO. Carroll, Greene, and Guthrie join MIDAS, mostly as a holding action. Guthrie considers joining CIRTPA (it is part of the Des Moines MSA) but there is a feeling that it would be the odd-man out in a big city district.

Did anyone else hear something else at the meetings?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

First off, there seems to be no reasonable prospect of a southern district. The five southern councils combined only add up to .588 of a district. Area XV might eventually be part of either a southeastern district or an eastern district but not a southern district, so Union and Ringold seemed to be favoring SWIPCO instead as they looked ahead to forming a largely rural western district.

Secondly, it's clear from looking at the whole map, CIRTPA is going to be a district, minus one or more counties. Joining CIRTPA is likely a holding action prior to being split off again, so several Guthrieites were against that idea. Better to get it over now rather than having to do it later unless there were some CIRTPA countries that wanted to not be part of a Des Moines district.

For that matter, there were some rumblings in Chariton Valley that if they joined Area XV, they'd eventually end up as part of a Cedar Rapids dominated district. If they wanted to be part of a mainly rural district, their only option was to get themselves and SICOG merged into SWIPCO as a prelude to hopefully being part of a western district. Over in SICOG, Clarke and Decatur indicated they'd go along with whatever the Charitonites decided.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Polk, Dallas, Warren, Madison, Jasper, Marshall, Story, Boone, and Greene easily make a cohesive congressional district, with only - 236 deviation from quota.

[jimrtex]

Ernest was correct about Ringgold and Union, which did joing SWIPCO.

It is an accident of census classification that Guthrie is part of the Des Moines MSA. Outlying counties are added based on commuting to the central counties. Guthrie is quite rural with about 10,000 persons, and the largest towns around 1500. There are few non-farm jobs, and farms are increasingly larger. I-80 is a straight shot into Des Moines (and West Des Moines), and Dallas is a central county. Part-time farmers and spouses may be able to find a paying job in the city. There is also a lake community in the eastern part of the county which may provide residences for exurban commuters.

Overall XV and Chariton are comfortable with being in a southeastern district.



In the second round two districts will be eliminated:

Upper Explorerland Regional Planning Council (UERPC) (0.100)
Region 6 Planning Commission (0.116)

Upper Explorerland Regional Planning Council (UERPC);

This region in northeastern Iowa divided between those who supported a river core based in Dubuque, and an interior core tied to Waterloo. Allamakee and Clayton join ECIA (Dubuque); Fayette and Winneshiek join INRCOG (Waterloo); and Howard joins NIACOG (Fort Mason).

Region 6 Planning Commission:

This region which did not come up with a geography-based name in 40 years also divided. Hardin joined MIDAS to the west; Marshall joined CIRTPA to make that region a 3x3 square, and the possibility of being in a district with Story or Jasper. Tama joined INRCOG (Waterloo) and Poweshiek joined Region XV for now, to avoid choosing between Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Des Moines.

Anyone hear anything else?

[jimrtex]

After 2 rounds 12 districts remain.



In the 3rd Round, 2 districts will be eliminated:

Southeast Iowa Regional Planning Commission (SEIRPC) (0.130)
North Iowa Area Council of Governments (NIACOG) (0.164)

Southeast Iowa Regional Planning Commission (SEIRPC)

The Davenport folks convince the river counties down to Burlington (Louisa and Des Moines) to join the Bi-State Regional Commission (BSRC). The inland counties (Henry and Lee) join Region XV. The Des Moines River flows through Region XV, accounting for Lee's decision.

North Iowa Area Council of Governments (NIACOG)

This region decides to join Mid-Iowa Development Association (MIDAS) Council of Governments en masse. The rural 19-county group keeps "our options" open.

[jimrtex]

After 3 rounds 10 districts remain.



In the 4th round two districts will be eliminated:

Northwest Iowa Planning & Development Commission (NWIPDC) (0.175)
Siouxland Interstate Metropolitan Planning Council (SIMPCO) (0.228)

Northwest Iowa Planning & Development Commission:

There is some support for joining MIDAS, but there is concern that might result in eastern counties joining and creating a district that stretches across the state. There are jokes about an I-90 district. Since SIMPCO is also being eliminated, the only other alternatives are to merge with SIMPCO, or to join SWIPCO. The region is not at all averse to having a Sioux City connection, where there would be a district office. An office in Fort Dodge would be kind of iffy. The vote to merge requires a majority in both districts, which is easily achieved. Had the counties voted individually, MIDAS might have peeled of Emmet and Palo Alto.

Siouxland Interstate Metropolitan Planning Council:

The support for the merge was almost unanimous.

Because of the merger, the number of districts will be 9, instead of 8. Politics were beginning to be more visible. Steve King is from Crawford in southern SIMPCO. The other representatives are from Dubuque, Iowa City, and exurban Des Moines (Van Meter in Dallas). There were hints that Democrat operatives were trying to create a Repulbican pack. There were arguments on the other side, that "we are all Iowans", and can't we just leave politics out of it for a while.

[jimrtex]

After four round 9 districts remain.



Because of the merger in the previous round, two districts will be eliminated in the 5th round.

Southwest Iowa Planning Council (SWIPCO) (0.273)
Area 15 Regional Planning Commission (Area XV) (0.282)

While the two could merge, this goes nowhere as it is realized that the southern district could be completed by adding areas further north. Those in the southwest would not a representative from Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, or Davenport, those in the southeast would not a representative from the Sioux City.

Southwest Iowa Planning Council:

Recognizing the inevitable, the SWIPCO counties join SIMPCO in a western district stretching from Minnesota to Missouri.

Area 15 Regional Planning Commission (Area XV)

These counties still have hopes of creating a district without Ceder Rapids. They mostly join the Bi-State Regional Commission (BSRC), though with a few defections. Clarke and Decatur join the western district, seeing I-35 as the dividing line between east and west. They are also closer to Nebraska to Illinois, and they may associate Illinois with Chicago, rather Forgottonia. Poweshiek joins ECICOG. You might remember that they had originally joined Area XV after Region 6 had disintegrated (four counties going four ways).

[muon2]

If the Area XV counties really wanted to avoid Cedar Rapids, they would do better to follow SWIPCO and join SIMPCO. Politically that would make more sense than joining with Davenport. By linking to the west XV could force Davenport to go with Cedar Rapids so they don't have to.

[jimrtex]

After 5 rounds 7 districts remain. The extensive mergers have rendered the names of some of the the underlying RCOG's as meaningless. Siouxland (SIMPCO) is a reference to Sioux City, and Bi-State is based on an interstate region in the Quad Cities of Iowa-Illinois.



One district will be eliminated in the 6th round.

East Central Intergovernmental Association (ECIA) (0.289)

East Central Intergovernmental Association (ECIA)

The counties from Dubuque southward are persuaded to join a river-based district with Davenport and Burlington. The two northern counties, Allamakee and Clayton, are concerned about the westward extension of the district along the Missouri border, and join the Waterloo-centric INRCOG. Three vertical stripes along with a central district is too radical an idea for counties in the extreme northeastern corner of the state. Delaware joins its neighbor Linn in ECICOG. Cedar Rapids is not an alien rival, but just the small city in the neigboring county.

[jimrtex]

If the Area XV counties really wanted to avoid Cedar Rapids, they would do better to follow SWIPCO and join SIMPCO. Politically that would make more sense than joining with Davenport. By linking to the west XV could force Davenport to go with Cedar Rapids so they don't have to.

I'm not sure that it is so much avoiding Cedar Rapids, but a perception that it is in the northern part of the state. If you develop a mental picture of Des Moines being in the center of the state, which it is from a east-west basis. then Cedar Rapids is to the north of it, and therefore in the northern part of the state. They would be much more amenable to being in a district with Iowa City. To the extent that the three state universities are regional institutions, University of Iowa, rather than Iowa State or Northern Iowa would be the local university. There are more alumni from University of Iowa, and with major league sports requiring considerable travel, there are more people who follow the basketball and football at UI, perhaps even holding season tickets.

Certainly, they would hope that Washington would join them, and possibly Johnson. Some people may want to recreate the existing congressional district IA-2 that does split Iowa City from Cedar Rapids. 73 of Iowa's 99 counties are losing population this decade, so there is a bit of jealousy towards the city's that are gaining population. Declining rural areas may have a sense of affinity with struggling river cities which once gave their names to the great western railroads.

The concern with joining with the western district would be that there would be a district stretching to three corners of the state with almost sufficient population for a district. The goals of the voters in the southeastern portion of the state may not be realistic. "We want a district of our own", may simply not be possible, and they have consistently been changing their definition of 'our own'. It might just be an effort to prevent elimination of their area. Something similar has happened in northern Iowa.

[jimrtex]

After six rounds, six districts remain.



In Round 7, one district will be eliminated:

MIDAS (Mid-Iowa Development Association) Council of Governments (MIDAS) (0.347)

MIDAS Council of Governments

The hope for a core group collapses. Counties to the west had wanted the core to expand westward, and those further east had wanted it to go eastward. The counties west of I-35 join the West region, while those to the east join INRCOG.

[muon2]

If the public is involved in the counties' choices, then the southern two tiers of counties are not going to want to be in with the band from Des Moines to Iowa City to Davenport. They are much more like MO to the south and would probably see nothing wrong with a largely rural CD that included three corners of the state.

[jimrtex]

After seven rounds, five districts remain.



In round 8, one district will be removed.

Iowa Northland Regional Council of Governments (INRCOG)

Iowa Northland Regional Council of Governments (INRCOG)

There is really only one choice, to join ECICOG. Some point that it will result in the district being  overpopulated, but say that is OK since it will likely eliminate southern parts of the district, and besides the goal is not to create the final districts.

The western tier decides to join the west region, in part to take in account the jogs in I-35 at Des Moines and further north.

[jimrtex]

If the public is involved in the counties' choices, then the southern two tiers of counties are not going to want to be in with the band from Des Moines to Iowa City to Davenport. They are much more like MO to the south and would probably see nothing wrong with a largely rural CD that included three corners of the state.

The decision was made by redistricting juries in each county (popularly referred to as redistricting caucuses in Iowa). With one juror per 2,000 persons, most instead had the minimum of 10. Wapello (Ottumwa) would have 17.

Community of interest include factors such as the economy, but also locality. Iowa at one time had 11 congressional districts, so even going with a western district was hard to envision. While you note that the border counties are like Missouri to the south, you are suggesting that they would be at home with counties that border on Minnesota as well.

There was certainly sentiment for the western idea, but ultimately locality won out. There are likely railroad depots throughout the the area converted to historical museums with Burlington Route signs.

[SamTilden2020]

Based on raw voting results (and assuming INRCOG and ECICOG merge), here are the hypothetical districts' 2016 vote totals:

D1 (West): 29.7 (D)-65.3 (R) (R wins by 35.6 percent, Titanium R)
D2 (CIRTPA): 47.6 (D)-45.4 (R) (D wins by 2.2, Lean D)
D3 (Southwest): 41.5 (D)-52.6 (R) (R wins by 11.1 percent, Likely R)
D4 (INRCOG/ECICOG): 47.2 (D)-46.7 (R) (D wins by 0.5, Tossup

[jimrtex]

Four districts emerged after the 8th Round. Region names have been applied to all four.



There will have to be adjustments to balance the population. This map shows the population relative to the quota.



The first step to balancing the population is to adjust the central region. One reason that Iowa is able to achieve such remarkable population balance is the large exposure of district boundaries, particularly in rural areas. When you can add a county with a population of 0.013 and eliminate a county with a population of 0.011 you can make fine adjustment. Since Iowa does not take into account erosity, this sometimes produces districts that jig in and out (see boundary between MN-1 and MN-4 south of the Minnesota line). Iowa's square county boundaries make districts look better.

Since the central region has the shortest boundaries, and counties with substantial population, it will be the hardest to balance, so we begin with it. It happens that we can remove the 3 eastern counties, Marshall, Jasper, and Marion and get quite close to the quota and maintain a compact district. Boone and Story are part of the Des Moines CSA, and Story has a particularly strong connection via I-35 and the fact Iowa State is in Ames.

Marshall and Jasper are shifted to Northeast, while Marion is placed in the Southeast.

[jimrtex]

Based on raw voting results (and assuming INRCOG and ECICOG merge), here are the hypothetical districts' 2016 vote totals:

D1 (West): 29.7 (D)-65.3 (R) (R wins by 35.6 percent, Titanium R)
D2 (CIRTPA): 47.6 (D)-45.4 (R) (D wins by 2.2, Lean D)
D3 (Southwest): 41.5 (D)-52.6 (R) (R wins by 11.1 percent, Likely R)
D4 (INRCOG/ECICOG): 47.2 (D)-46.7 (R) (D wins by 0.5, Tossup

You may have missed that Cerro Gordo, Franklin, Hardin, and Worth shifted to the West.

While political data like this would have been available, it is unlikely to be presented in such a visible fashion. Democrats might have attempted to promote a west region as a Republican pack, but they would/could not have presented on that basis, since it would be the voters making that decision. Instead they would have advocated for community of interest, agriculture and might have talked about a Soybelt. If they could they might arrange for a joint resolution by the county political parties.

Note: in the first adjustment Marshall and Jasper will shift from Central to Northeast and Marion will shift from Central to Southeast.

[jimrtex]

After trimming the Central Region



The next step is to balance the Northeast and Southeast regions. We start by moving Washington to the southeast, eliminating a bump because of Washington's original RCOG. This reduces the disparity from 1.157 to 0.847, to 1.129 to 0.875.

We could move five smaller counties to the Southeast, but this tends to isolate Johnson (Iowa City) as the Southeast district wraps around it. Instead, we move Johnson to Southeast. This reduces the difference between the districts, though it does make the Southeast district the larger district:

1.072 to 0.932.

Again we could equalize by moving smaller counties to the Northeast (e.g. Marion and Mahaska), but this results in increased erosity. So instead we move Dubuque to the Northeast, reducing the disparity, but flipping the districts:

1.057 to 0.948.

Now we move the two counties that come closest to equalizing: Jones and Poweshiek

1.008 to 0.996.

Summary of changes: Johnson, Jones, Poweshiek, and Washington to Southeast; Dubuque to Northeast.

[jimrtex]

This is pretty close to final.



But we improve equality a bit by rotating slightly counterclockwise, while improving erosity a bit by eliminating the gap tooth of Poweshiek, which reduces the isolation of Jasper.

Poweshiek to Northeast; Iowa to Southeast.
Mitchell to West;
Decastur to Southeast.

Final map - awaits lawsuits.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Jimrtex this is a pretty cool concept.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

... Final map - awaits lawsuits.

That is simply a wonderful district plan for Iowa

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

... Final map - awaits lawsuits.

That is simply a wonderful district plan for Iowa

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The average population deviation for the districts in that map is nearly 10,000.  That is way too much in my opinion.

[Gass3268]

The average population deviation for the districts in that map is nearly 10,000.  That is way too much in my opinion.

These are population estimates for 2020.

[muon2]

The balancing step is the real question here. It seems to move away from the county-oriented preferences that drove the plan up to that point. It would be interesting to compare this plan with one produced under the current constraints. Would they be substantially different?