2024 - Ted Cruz wins the presidency without the popular vote

[Medal506]

So in 2020 President Trump wins his re election with the popular vote this time against Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. 4 years later on the Republican side there were 6 presidential candidates in the race (Ted Cruz, Kris Kobach, Charlie Baker, Mike Pence, Josh Mandel, and Todd Young) on the Democratic side there were 3 presidential candidates. (Kamala Harris, Keith Ellison, and Tim Ryan) Tim Ryan similar to Martin O'Malley in 2016 didn't gain any traction and like Jim Webb was seen as too moderate. After Ted Cruz defeated Mike Pence in the Iowa Caucuses Mike Pence, Kris Kobach, and Josh Mandel suspended their campaigns. Pence as the incumbent Vice President kept neutral during the primaries. After Todd Young won the New Hampshire primary against Cruz and Baker Charlie Baker withdrew and endorsed Todd Young. Kris Kobach and Josh Mandel both endorsed Ted Cruz over Todd Young since Cruz was the more conservative option of the two. After Ted Cruz ended up winning 9 out of the 10 contests on Super Tuesday Todd Young suspended his campaign for president and endorsed Ted Cruz. After Super Tuesday both President Trump and Vice President Pence endorsed Ted Cruz. Cruz from that point steam rolled his way through the entire Republican Primary winning 55 out of the 57 contests unsurprisingly as he was on the only in the race. On the Democratic side Kamala Harris ended easily defeating Keith Ellison being the heavy favorite with women and latinos and white Christian working class democrats. Ted Cruz ended up defeating Kamala Harris in the electoral vote but narrowly loses the popular vote by around 20 thousand voted. How much would the left freak out and how big will their tantrums be


2024

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) / Sen. Josh Mandel (R-OH) - 327 EV / 48.5% PV (65,892,183)
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) / Gov. Steve Bullock (D-MT) - 211 EV / 48.5% PV (65,911,218)

[DPKdebator]

While I can't imagine the PV being that close, I can see a significant movement among Democrats forming to switch to NPV, and more blue states would probably be moving towards adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact.

[Free Bird]

the strange part of this is that is actually seems plausible lol.

But yeah. NPV gains more steam, and Cruz probably gets HW'd by Bullock in 28, setting the Democrats on a more moderate route.

[Kingpoleon]

I think a Tim Ryan/Cheri Bustos(if the latter succeeds Durbin in 2020 or 2026) or Tim Ryan/Michelle Lujan Grisham(if the latter wins the Governorship in 2018 and 2022) ticket sounds most likely.

[The Govanah Jake]

After two terms of Trump? I doubt there is any way a Republican can win, let alone by 100 EVs and let alone it is done by Cruz

[Medal506]

After two terms of Trump? I doubt there is any way a Republican can win, let alone by 100 EVs and let alone it is done by Cruz

Maybe if democrats stopped their divisive identity politics rethoric. That's one of the reasons they continue to lose.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

After two terms of Trump? I doubt there is any way a Republican can win, let alone by 100 EVs and let alone it is done by Cruz

Maybe if democrats stopped their divisive identity politics rethoric. That's one of the reasons they continue to lose.

I hate to say it, but both sides do this. look at how the GOP tries to appeal to resentful whites.

[The Govanah Jake]

After two terms of Trump? I doubt there is any way a Republican can win, let alone by 100 EVs and let alone it is done by Cruz

Maybe if democrats stopped their divisive identity politics rethoric. That's one of the reasons they continue to lose.

As the previous poster has mentioned, just saying the democrats use identity politics is bullsh**t. Both sides due it

Identity politics - a tendency for people of a particular religion, race, social background, etc., to form exclusive political alliances, moving away from traditional broad-based party politics.

Tell me that doesn't sound similar with the way the Republican Party courts white voters

Anyway, first off saying the Democrats continue to lose is incorrect. First off they lost only one national election so far based off of this by a horribly corrupt and incompetent candidate. And saying the Democrats continue to lose fails to mention the many democratic wins in Virginia, New Jersey, and elsewhere that have occurred. I agree with you that the democrats should stop focusing on identity politics but saying they keep losing and only keep losing on that issue alone is incorrect. Now getting besides that point, i do agree that the Republicans could have a 1-5% chance of winning in 2024 under two terms of Trump if the Democrats continue on identity politics put it is ignoring many precedents. First off: The Republican and the Democrats rarely ever win three terms for there party's. The last one was under HW Bush and before him Truman and that was only because the president before them was a popular realigning president. Trump is neither popular (approvals in the 30s) and is not a realigning president (losing the popular vote by 2% and winning 3 states by less then 1% that haven't been won since the 1980s is not a realignment). The chance of a third term by his party is virtually zilch by historical standards. Second: The third terms of said party don't usually win elections on the back level as the realigner. Bush and Truman both won handily but there victory's paled in comparison to that of FDR and Ronald Reagan. A Cruz victory of 100 electoral votes in 2024 which is greater then that of Trumps 2016 victory with a greater popular vote and vote total thus would not happen if Trump was a supposed realigning president. I don't know the electoral total for 2020 but if it matchs that of Cruz's victory here, then it would be historically invalid. Third: Ted Cruz? really. That smarmy little worm who is unlikable and was called Lyin Ted by the Donald. Why would he of anyone win the Trump voters (i assume he does in your map) by enough to win states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Maine. He is unliked in the Suburbs and would do worse in the rural areas in those areas and those would lose those states. Finally, speaking of the map it ignores any demographic growth at all. By 2024, Hispanic growth in states like Florida, Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada would be enough to force the republican to get a large margin among them to win. Cruz may be Hispanic, but that does not guarantee him any more Hispanic votes then Trump and he would need those votes if he is winning Nevada and Colorado against a minority western democrat.

In my opinion the map would look more like this:

(I was mixed on Ohio flipping or not)

[Hoosier_Nick]

Pence and Young both running... Interesting