Which upsets do you expect? (House/Senate/Local)

[windjammer]

I'm curious!

Me: Democrats will perform very well in Texas, will pick up the Trump/Clinton districts and win in one of the open seats, Cruz will win by less than 5 points and I wouldn't be surprised if he loses (but still unlikely)

[junior chįmp]

Upstate NY will flip almost entirely blue. Including places like Long Island. People like Peter King are finished

[136or142]

Senate/House: I wouldn't be surprised if either Tester or Gianforte lost (narrowly), so I guess MT could be an upset. Certainly not buying that they're both safe.
House: Not sure, maybe Rod Blum winning reelection? Democrats should do very well in most suburban R-held districts, though.
Governor: Democrats winning OK/KS and/or Republicans winning RI/ME (though I personally wouldn't consider any of these upsets)

What about the Republicans winning Connecticut?

[Young Conservative]

Atlas obsessions with a blue Texas are so old. Cruz will win by over 10, Pete sessions district remains Red.

[junior chįmp]

Atlas obsessions with a blue Texas are so old. Cruz will win by over 10, Pete sessions district remains Red.

You know. I'd tend to agree with you but Texas has great potential. O'Rourke will get closer than anyone before him and the Texas state Senate might flip. File this under "Big, if true" predictions

[fluffypanther19]

Atlas obsessions with a blue Texas are so old.

I have to agree with you there, if democrats keep saying that Texas is going to be blue, then eventually they will be correct; whether it flips next year or in 20.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm just really hoping the wave knocks out Karen Handel.

[SWE]

Atlas obsessions with a blue Texas are so old. Cruz will win by over 10, Pete sessions district remains Red.

How can a blue district remain red?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I don't see the seats flipping, but CA-42 & CA-50 could be closer than they have any right to be. I guess something similar to Calvert's 2008 race

[smoltchanov]

Atlas obsessions with a blue Texas are so old. Cruz will win by over 10, Pete sessions district remains Red.

May be in 2018. But in the next decade Republicans will lose a lot in Texas.

[jamestroll]

Democrats will do well in the rust belt next year.

After GA-06 everyone was like:

OMG!!!!! LETS GIVE UP ON THE BURBS CLINTON DID WELL IN! WE GOTTA GO BACK TO THE RUST BELT!!!

Now after Virginia everyone is like:

LETS FORGET ABOUT THOSE KICKS!!! SUBURBS ONLY IN THE SUN BELT WILL SAVE US!

For 2018:

It is likely the Democratic surge in suburbs will be very present in the Midwest and we have already seen from special elections up and down the ballot that rural areas in the Midwest have made significant Democratic swings that you did not see in rural Virginia. In a decade from now Georgia will very likely be more Democratic than Michigan but probably not in 2018 overall.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democrats will do well in the rust belt next year.

After GA-06 everyone was like:

OMG!!!!! LETS GIVE UP ON THE BURBS CLINTON DID WELL IN! WE GOTTA GO BACK TO THE RUST BELT!!!

Now after Virginia everyone is like:

LETS FORGET ABOUT THOSE KICKS!!! SUBURBS ONLY IN THE SUN BELT WILL SAVE US!

For 2018:

It is likely the Democratic surge in suburbs will be very present in the Midwest and we have already seen from special elections up and down the ballot that rural areas in the Midwest have made significant Democratic swings that you did not see in rural Virginia. In a decade from now Georgia will very likely be more Democratic than Georgia but probably not in 2018 overall.

I'm having trouble parsing this.  Did you mean that in a decade (1) GA will be more D than it is now (likely) or (2) GA will be more D than VA (unlikely) or (3) something else?

[jamestroll]

Democrats will do well in the rust belt next year.

After GA-06 everyone was like:

OMG!!!!! LETS GIVE UP ON THE BURBS CLINTON DID WELL IN! WE GOTTA GO BACK TO THE RUST BELT!!!

Now after Virginia everyone is like:

LETS FORGET ABOUT THOSE KICKS!!! SUBURBS ONLY IN THE SUN BELT WILL SAVE US!

For 2018:

It is likely the Democratic surge in suburbs will be very present in the Midwest and we have already seen from special elections up and down the ballot that rural areas in the Midwest have made significant Democratic swings that you did not see in rural Virginia. In a decade from now Georgia will very likely be more Democratic than Georgia but probably not in 2018 overall.

I'm having trouble parsing this.  Did you mean that in a decade (1) GA will be more D than it is now (likely) or (2) GA will be more D than VA (unlikely) or (3) something else?

fixed. I meant in a decade Georgia will likely be more Democratic compared to Michigan but a year from today I suspect Democratic results will be better in Michigan than Georgia.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Sometime later I may post a comment on how foolish it is to make 10 year political predictions.

For now I would say you Democrats better figure a way for financing Medicare for all.  Vermont and California backed off because of this problems with that.  The folks defeated a Medicare for all referendum in Colorado by a massive amount because of this problem.

You could run in the next two elections just in opposition Trump and to the way the GOP has handled Obamacare and win significant victories. But I suspect a large number of your candidates will not be patient enough to do just that.  They will want to fight for Medicare for all. That could cause a backlash that could surprise you, if you cannot explain financing.

If you do not figure out a financing solution you will run into problems, if you win control of the government in 2020. You will also run into financing problems in shoring up Medicare for us old folks and social security.  If you surprise the people with raising  taxes too much you may face a backlash in 2022.

The only reliable prediction is that the pendulum will swing.  How and when it swings is anyone’s guess.

[Skill and Chance]

Agree with the OP for the most likely upset.  For another possible upset, I could see the Republicans losing just about no ground in MI and WI.

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats: O'Rourke wins in Texas

Republicans: Republicans win the Connecticut and Rhode Island Governors races.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

Atlas obsessions with a blue Texas are so old. Cruz will win by over 10, Pete sessions district remains Red.

True for 2018, but Texas is turning blue in the long run unless some drastic changes are made to immigration policy.

[politicallefty]

It's not one I necessarily expect, but something for people to think about: Democrats win a majority of House state delegations and/or Republicans lose their majority of House state delegations. Keep in mind that both parties can be a minority and it is how the President is chosen if there is no electoral majority.

[Dr. MB]

-Allan Fung defeats Gina Raimondo
-Bob Krist defeats Pete Ricketts

[Gustaf]

By definition, I expect no upsets.

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Donnelly by >5%.

Rauner holds.

Whitmer chokes it away in the general.