Which State Is More Likely to Go to the Democrats : NC or WI

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would say NC

[Figueira]

WI, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of NC flipping without it.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Wisconsin.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

WI, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of NC flipping without it.

If someone like Harris runs on a sun-belt strategy, I could see her winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona while losing the Rust Belt.

[TPIG]

If we're talking about in 2020, I'd say Wisconsin. If we're talking about long-term shifts, then North Carolina. At this point though, North Carolina is simply a more Republican-friendly state than Wisconsin.

[Dr. MB]

WI, but I wouldn't discount the possibility of NC flipping without it.

This. A lot really depends on the D nominee and their strategy.

[History505]

Wisconsin.

[super6646]

Hope people saying North Carolina are joking.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If someone like Harris runs on a sun-belt strategy, I could see her winning Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona while losing the Rust Belt.

[TDAS04]

Definitely Wisconsin.

[Dr. Arch]

Obviously Wisconsin

[Fuzzy Bear]

Wisconsin.

I view Trump's victory there, and in Michigan, as extreme flukes.  Pennsylvania, a state with a fossil fuels industry, not as much.

[TML]

Definitely WI.

If we were to do a uniform shift of the PV margin in 2016 and flip just 1% of Trump voters to Hillary, MI, PA, WI, and FL would flip but NC would stay R. In that scenario, the PV margin would have been at or near most final forecast levels, and the electoral map would have matched most final forecasts except for NC.

[Shadows]

Wisconsin.

[Mr. Smith]

Hope people saying North Carolina are joking.

Why, the comparison is no different from Nevada or Colorado or Iowa from Virginia immediately after Kerry lost them in '04, then Obama happened.

[Sumner 1868]

Honestly I don't see any Democrats gaining any southern state except FL. The region is just far too polarized by race. And we already saw how Osoffism works.

[Mr. Smith]

Honestly I don't see any Democrats gaining any southern state except FL. The region is just far too polarized by race. And we already saw how Osoffism works.

Explain Parnellism then?

And once again 2004-2008 has to be considered.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Honestly I don't see any Democrats gaining any southern state except FL. The region is just far too polarized by race. And we already saw how Osoffism works.

You're being silly. The south is trending towards democrats and there's nothing people like you can do to stop it.

Black turnout went down a lot. Yet despite that, Hillary gained in Georgia over Obama. According to https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in-2016/ Georgia would have been 1.75 points more Republican in 2012. North Carolina would have been almost 1.5 points more Republican in 2012.

The south will rise again, even if losers like you won't recognize it.

[Sumner 1868]

Explain Parnellism then?

The whites got lazy. Won't happen in a presidential year.

[beaver2.0]

Wisconsin, certainly.

[Sumner 1868]

Honestly I don't see any Democrats gaining any southern state except FL. The region is just far too polarized by race. And we already saw how Osoffism works.

You're being silly. The south is trending towards democrats and there's nothing people like you can do to stop it.

Black turnout went down a lot. Yet despite that, Hillary gained in Georgia over Obama. According to https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in-2016/ Georgia would have been 1.75 points more Republican in 2012. North Carolina would have been almost 1.5 points more Republican in 2012.

Here the thing your missing. They have basically maxed out the suburban professionals and have nowhere to gain unless black turnout is high (see Osoff). The "swing" in GA was Romney voters going for Gary Johnson. Also note Drumpf actually won more individual votes than Mitt Romney despite the percentage falling.

GA is staying Republican. Democrats can spend $50 million every two years if they want but it's not flipping.

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You sound very angry and defensive for no good reason.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Here the thing your missing. They have basically maxed out the suburban professionals and have nowhere to gain unless black turnout is high (see Osoff). The "swing" in GA was Romney voters going for Gary Johnson. Also note Drumpf actually won more individual votes than Mitt Romney despite the percentage falling.

GA is staying Republican. Democrats can spend $50 million every two years if they want but it's not flipping.

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You sound very angry and defensive for no good reason.

Georgia dems have not even come close to maxing out. They're only beginning their complete and utter dominance. Georgia dems are going to win bigly in 2018, 2020, and infinity and beyond. I'm sure a socialist from Washington knows my state better than me.

[Sumner 1868]

Honestly I don't see any Democrats gaining any southern state except FL. The region is just far too polarized by race. And we already saw how Osoffism works.

You're being silly. The south is trending towards democrats and there's nothing people like you can do to stop it.

Black turnout went down a lot. Yet despite that, Hillary gained in Georgia over Obama. According to https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/democracy/reports/2017/11/01/441926/voter-trends-in-2016/ Georgia would have been 1.75 points more Republican in 2012. North Carolina would have been almost 1.5 points more Republican in 2012.

Here the thing your missing. They have basically maxed out the suburban professionals and have nowhere to gain unless black turnout is high (see Osoff). The "swing" in GA was Romney voters going for Gary Johnson. Also note Drumpf actually won more individual votes than Mitt Romney despite the percentage falling.

GA is staying Republican. Democrats can spend $50 million every two years if they want but it's not flipping.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You sound very angry and defensive for no good reason.

Georgia dems have not even come close to maxing out. They're only beginning their complete and utter dominance. Georgia dems are going to win bigly in 2018, 2020, and infinity and beyond. I'm sure a socialist from Washington knows my state better than me.

Not actually a socialist but whatever.

I'm glad you have the ability to just predict things out of thin air.

[IceSpear]

Here the thing your missing. They have basically maxed out the suburban professionals and have nowhere to gain unless black turnout is high (see Osoff). The "swing" in GA was Romney voters going for Gary Johnson. Also note Drumpf actually won more individual votes than Mitt Romney despite the percentage falling.

GA is staying Republican. Democrats can spend $50 million every two years if they want but it's not flipping.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You sound very angry and defensive for no good reason.

Georgia dems have not even come close to maxing out. They're only beginning their complete and utter dominance. Georgia dems are going to win bigly in 2018, 2020, and infinity and beyond. I'm sure a socialist from Washington knows my state better than me.

Well a fake independent from Arizona told me that Democrats are going to win the Wyoming Senate race, so anything is possible.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Okay joking around aside, I think there is good reason to assume Georgia is trending democrat rapidly. The demographics are increasingly becoming significantly more favorable for democrats (It's trended democrat every year since like 2004).

No state has as big of an age gap as Georgia:



18-29 year olds in Georgia vote the same way as 18-29 year olds in New Jersey, a much more liberal state.

All democrats need to do to win in Georgia is do slightly better with the white vote (which they are -- both uneducated and educated white voters trended towards democrats this election cycle), and have 4 more years of changing demographics, and badabing badaboom they win Georgia.

It feels like you're just looking back at the past to expect results, which is a very non manly way of doing predictions. Times are a changing. We ain't in Kansas anymore. Democrats ain't even close to maximizing the suburbs (58% of the population lives in the Atlanta suburbs btw). Atlanta suburbs are becoming more and more diverse every passing day, and the Hispanic population is still very young.