Which State Is More Likely to Go to the Democrats : NC or WI

[Sumner 1868]

Okay joking around aside, I think there is good reason to assume Georgia is trending democrat rapidly. The demographics are increasingly becoming significantly more favorable for democrats (It's trended democrat every year since like 2004).

No state has as big of an age gap as Georgia:



18-29 year olds in Georgia vote the same way as 18-29 year olds in New Jersey, a much more liberal state.

All democrats need to do to win in Georgia is do slightly better with the white vote (which they are -- both uneducated and educated white voters trended towards democrats this election cycle), and have 4 more years of changing demographics, and badabing badaboom they win Georgia.

It feels like you're just looking back at the past to expect results, which is a very non manly way of doing predictions. Times are a changing. We ain't in Kansas anymore. Democrats ain't even close to maximizing the suburbs (58% of the population lives in the Atlanta suburbs btw). Atlanta suburbs are becoming more and more diverse every passing day, and the Hispanic population is still very young.

I'm not saying the state can never flip - the demographics are good in the far future. But it won't flip in 2020. Democrats are targeting it too fast too soon. The aged Republican is just much. Same thing with Texas. Nobody may like waiting but they will have no choice.

[Shadows]

Okay joking around aside, I think there is good reason to assume Georgia is trending democrat rapidly. The demographics are increasingly becoming significantly more favorable for democrats (It's trended democrat every year since like 2004).

No state has as big of an age gap as Georgia:



18-29 year olds in Georgia vote the same way as 18-29 year olds in New Jersey, a much more liberal state.

All democrats need to do to win in Georgia is do slightly better with the white vote (which they are -- both uneducated and educated white voters trended towards democrats this election cycle), and have 4 more years of changing demographics, and badabing badaboom they win Georgia.

It feels like you're just looking back at the past to expect results, which is a very non manly way of doing predictions. Times are a changing. We ain't in Kansas anymore. Democrats ain't even close to maximizing the suburbs (58% of the population lives in the Atlanta suburbs btw). Atlanta suburbs are becoming more and more diverse every passing day, and the Hispanic population is still very young.

Georgia will be a swing state in 2024 when millennials exceed Baby boomers. Other than Trump who is a bad fit for Georgia, the state remains still Republican & very much in the grasp of a guy like Kasich.

The sift between 2016 & 2024 in terms of Millennials as a share of the voting population is massive & then demographics will truly catch up with Republicans.

[UncleSam]

People tend to get more conservative as they get older. That being said, Georgia is clearly going the way of Virginia. I suspect that by 2028 we will look back on Mccain winning Georgia despite getting clobbered nationally the same way we look back on Dole winning Virginia and Colorado in 1996 despite getting clobbered

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

People tend to get more conservative as they get older. That being said, Georgia is clearly going the way of Virginia. I suspect that by 2028 we will look back on Mccain winning Georgia despite getting clobbered nationally the same way we look back on Dole winning Virginia and Colorado in 1996 despite getting clobbered

How do you explain 1988-2002? There was basically no age gap in all of these years (Clinton and Gore's best age group is 65+). It's not that people get more conservative as they get older; it's that it really makes no sense as a young person to vote for the party that wants to preserve the status quo of 70% of your federal tax dollars go to Medicare, Social Security, and the military spending, but cut everything else like infrastructure, education, etc.

Why the hell would I vote for a party that wants to kick out the immigrants that help pay for Medicare and SS? That's putting the tax burden on me. I won't spend my time working my ass off so a bunch of rich old people can keep their money and very little of the federal spending goes to me. We need to ensure Medicare for all ages so I don't have to work my ass off to provide old man welfare for all of these old people.

[Mr. Smith]

It should be noted that NC actually moved more than Wisconsin from 2004-2008.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia is definitely winnable in 2020. Not necessarily likely though.

The statewide races in 2018 will help tell a better story. I hope there are some competitive Democrats in GA-06 and GA-07 to boost Democratic turnout in these areas.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

The GOP won Wisconsin one time by a fraction of a percent. Dems have won North Carolina one time since 1976. What do you think.

[Mr. Smith]

The GOP won Wisconsin one time by a fraction of a percent. Dems have won North Carolina one time since 1976. What do you think.

And in 1976, Wisconsin was straight R after Truman besides the LBJ landslide, and proceeded to stay R until 1988 after that.

Things change.

And given

It should be noted that NC actually moved more than Wisconsin from 2004-2008.

it could happen again.

[King Lear]

Obviously Wisconsin. North Carolina has way to many white evangelicals to vote for any democrats. 2008 was a total fluke.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Depends on who the democrats run. But in the long term NC is definitely trending D. I'm from Raleigh, and the millennial college educated white population here is trending dem in the long term.

[AGA]

WI.

[Stranger in a strange land]

People tend to get more conservative as they get older. That being said, Georgia is clearly going the way of Virginia. I suspect that by 2028 we will look back on Mccain winning Georgia despite getting clobbered nationally the same way we look back on Dole winning Virginia and Colorado in 1996 despite getting clobbered

How do you explain 1988-2002? There was basically no age gap in all of these years (Clinton and Gore's best age group is 65+). It's not that people get more conservative as they get older; it's that it really makes no sense as a young person to vote for the party that wants to preserve the status quo of 70% of your federal tax dollars go to Medicare, Social Security, and the military spending, but cut everything else like infrastructure, education, etc.

Why the hell would I vote for a party that wants to kick out the immigrants that help pay for Medicare and SS? That's putting the tax burden on me. I won't spend my time working my ass off so a bunch of rich old people can keep their money and very little of the federal spending goes to me. We need to ensure Medicare for all ages so I don't have to work my ass off to provide old man welfare for all of these old people.

That's because of who the seniors were: in those years, the FDR/World War II generation was still around and still voting Democratic. Midterms used to favor Democrats for this reason, and seniors were being talked about as a Democratic voting bloc even as late as the 2000 election.

[forgotten manatee]

Wisconsin, though frankly I wish the Democratic party could figure out a way to win without it.

[Grassroots]

Wisconsin, NC is a dependable Republican state at this point, while Wisconsin only went red last year by a blessed little margin.`