AL-Emerson: Moore +3, Lee Busby at 5%
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  AL-Emerson: Moore +3, Lee Busby at 5%
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Author Topic: AL-Emerson: Moore +3, Lee Busby at 5%  (Read 2184 times)
Pollster
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« on: December 04, 2017, 10:21:31 AM »

Roy Moore 49%
Doug Jones 46%
Lee Busby 5%

https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/ECP_AL_12.4_pressrelease.pdf
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« Reply #1 on: December 04, 2017, 10:22:32 AM »


Sad, I like those Busby Numbers though, rooting for at least 5% write ins and at least a Narrow Jones win.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: December 04, 2017, 10:23:07 AM »

OMG MOORE IS COLLAPSING!111!!!11


lol he's gonna win by 20 points.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #3 on: December 04, 2017, 10:25:48 AM »

This seems about accurate.
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Skye
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« Reply #4 on: December 04, 2017, 10:37:15 AM »

All I'll say about this race now is that I'd be very surprised if Jones wins.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #5 on: December 04, 2017, 10:46:49 AM »


Said this from pretty much the beginning of the scandals. Although now, that seems a bit low.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #6 on: December 04, 2017, 11:05:02 AM »
« Edited: December 04, 2017, 03:00:45 PM by Sorenroy »

While I think that the support for write-ins is coming from Republicans, I think it is coming from Republicans who already abandoned Roy Moore and would have picked Doug Jones over him in a two way race. Time will tell if the Busby support holds or if it is just people hearing a third option and going for that. Also, two other things from this poll: 1) it shows the trend continuing to favor Jones (there was a 10 point lead for Moore in their poll from about a month ago), and 2) the big change from their last poll was Jones's unfavorability, which has increased from 31% to 43% in less than a month.

While the trend favors Jones, I think if this poll is accurate it is still bad news for the Democrats. Even if this trend continues, there is just not enough time for it to result in a Jones lead. On the other hand, the speed at which his unfavorability is increasing is a cause for alarm, especially since it is likely increasing among conservatives who were questioning whether they should vote for him in the wake of the scandal or not. It looks like the effort to brand Jones as against Alabama values is working.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: December 04, 2017, 11:06:41 AM »

Wild that Moore’s lead is cut in half and yet, red avatars automatically toss themselves off a cliff
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Skye
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« Reply #8 on: December 04, 2017, 11:55:06 AM »

Wild that Moore’s lead is cut in half and yet, red avatars automatically toss themselves off a cliff

That may be because there's almost a week left for the election and Moore is leading in the aggregate of polls.
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Matty
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« Reply #9 on: December 04, 2017, 12:41:07 PM »

Wild that Moore’s lead is cut in half and yet, red avatars automatically toss themselves off a cliff

Jones % has actually gone down since last poll

Their last poll was 53-47
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OneJ
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« Reply #10 on: December 04, 2017, 01:20:28 PM »

Even though this looks accurate (unfortunately), please keep in mind that Emerson as a pollster is still garbage.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2017, 01:29:13 PM »

Moore +3 is not a good result for Republicans, no matter how you slice it. Keep in mind that their last poll had him up by 6. This race is very winnable for Democrats.
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2017, 02:38:04 PM »

The margin of error is what makes this poll incredibly interesting, particularly in the case of Lee Busby.
Jones could be as high as 50.3% and as low as 41.7%
Moore could be as high as 53.3% and as low as 44.7%
Busby could be as high as 9.3% and as low as 0.7% (this likely makes a huge difference in who wins)

Incredibly, incredibly tight race.
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Pericles
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« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2017, 03:55:27 PM »

Jones is CLOSING THE GAP! Hopefully Busby can be a spoiler, the Busby vote has been underrated.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #14 on: December 04, 2017, 04:15:09 PM »

OMG MOORE IS COLLAPSING!111!!!11


lol he's gonna win by 20 points.

How's Governor Ed Gillespie working out for you?
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TexArkana
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« Reply #15 on: December 04, 2017, 04:16:57 PM »

OMG MOORE IS COLLAPSING!111!!!11


Lol he's gonna win by 20 points
This is a single-digit MOV race either way.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: December 04, 2017, 05:48:34 PM »

Moore +3 is not a good result for Republicans, no matter how you slice it. Keep in mind that their last poll had him up by 6. This race is very winnable for Democrats.

Obviously it's a bad result for Republicans considering it's Alabama. Even before being exposed as a pedophile Moore was going to underperform generic R in Alabama, but that just made it go from an embarrassing underperformance to an absolutely pathetic underperformance. But he's still inevitable. ~30 points is quite a lot of padding, especially in these polarized times.

Also, looks like it's time to add to the "People Democrats can't beat list":

A guy who forced his mistress to get an abortion
A guy who defrauded Medicare for billions of dollars
A guy who bragged on tape about sexual assault and grabbing pussies
A guy who bodyslammed a reporter
NEW EDITION! A literal pedophile

But remember, It's All Hillary's Fault™! Also, Kelli Ward is guaranteed to lose because she believes in chemtrails or something.
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nerd73
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« Reply #17 on: December 04, 2017, 07:05:58 PM »

Lean R. I don't think Jones will win, but some of you are acting like it's Safe R. It's not. It's going to be certainly in single digits, and probably within 5% MOV for either side. But, I think in the end Alabama voters will reluctantly go for Moore.

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junior chįmp
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« Reply #18 on: December 04, 2017, 07:08:09 PM »

Moore +3 is not a good result for Republicans, no matter how you slice it. Keep in mind that their last poll had him up by 6. This race is very winnable for Democrats.

Obviously it's a bad result for Republicans considering it's Alabama. Even before being exposed as a pedophile Moore was going to underperform generic R in Alabama, but that just made it go from an embarrassing underperformance to an absolutely pathetic underperformance. But he's still inevitable. ~30 points is quite a lot of padding, especially in these polarized times.

Also, looks like it's time to add to the "People Democrats can't beat list":

A guy who forced his mistress to get an abortion
A guy who defrauded Medicare for billions of dollars
A guy who bragged on tape about sexual assault and grabbing pussies
A guy who bodyslammed a reporter
NEW EDITION! A literal pedophile

But remember, It's All Hillary's Fault™! Also, Kelli Ward is guaranteed to lose because she believes in chemtrails or something.

Ted Bundy was a Republican. He could probably get elected these days from jail
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: December 04, 2017, 08:03:29 PM »

Moore +3 is not a good result for Republicans, no matter how you slice it. Keep in mind that their last poll had him up by 6. This race is very winnable for Democrats.

Obviously it's a bad result for Republicans considering it's Alabama. Even before being exposed as a pedophile Moore was going to underperform generic R in Alabama, but that just made it go from an embarrassing underperformance to an absolutely pathetic underperformance. But he's still inevitable. ~30 points is quite a lot of padding, especially in these polarized times.

Also, looks like it's time to add to the "People Democrats can't beat list":

A guy who forced his mistress to get an abortion
A guy who defrauded Medicare for billions of dollars
A guy who bragged on tape about sexual assault and grabbing pussies
A guy who bodyslammed a reporter
NEW EDITION! A literal pedophile

But remember, It's All Hillary's Fault™! Also, Kelli Ward is guaranteed to lose because she believes in chemtrails or something.

Ted Bundy was a Republican. He could probably definitely get elected these days from jail

Fixed. As long as he ran in the right state. Wink
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Brittain33
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« Reply #20 on: December 05, 2017, 09:46:22 AM »

Stolen from a tweet:

Last four Emerson College #ALSEN polls:
9/21-9/32 Moore +22
11/9-11/11 Moore +10
11/25-11/27 Moore +6
11/30-12/2 Moore +3
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #21 on: December 05, 2017, 11:12:58 AM »


You, IceSpear, Santander and I all observed that it was foolish to put too much faith in Alabama sister-kissing deplorables but we got persecuted like Roy Moore and Jesus Christ for saying that.

Now that Moore has shot himself in the foot, it's back to a Kandering, though the race could turn again and make our Jones a Quistling.
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Val
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« Reply #22 on: December 05, 2017, 01:50:19 PM »

OMG MOORE IS COLLAPSING!111!!!11


lol he's gonna win by 20 points.

How's Governor Ed Gillespie working out for you?
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #23 on: December 06, 2017, 02:41:28 PM »

Jones is CLOSING THE GAP! Hopefully Busby can be a spoiler, the Busby vote has been underrated.

Ah, but a spoiler in which direction?
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