AL-Emerson: Moore +3, Lee Busby at 5%

[Sorenroy]

While I think that the support for write-ins is coming from Republicans, I think it is coming from Republicans who already abandoned Roy Moore and would have picked Doug Jones over him in a two way race. Time will tell if the Busby support holds or if it is just people hearing a third option and going for that. Also, two other things from this poll: 1) it shows the trend continuing to favor Jones (there was a 10 point lead for Moore in their poll from about a month ago), and 2) the big change from their last poll was Jones's unfavorability, which has increased from 31% to 43% in less than a month.

While the trend favors Jones, I think if this poll is accurate it is still bad news for the Democrats. Even if this trend continues, there is just not enough time for it to result in a Jones lead. On the other hand, the speed at which his unfavorability is increasing is a cause for alarm, especially since it is likely increasing among conservatives who were questioning whether they should vote for him in the wake of the scandal or not. It looks like the effort to brand Jones as against Alabama values is working.