Election Analysis of Dean v Bush

[sgpine]

I've been working on analyzing how a race between Dean and Bush would shape up.

The data and predictions were made in October, so it's a little bit out of date currently. I've begun a second, more indepth look at the numbers which will probably be completed in a month or so.

The analysis is available at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionanalysis/dean.html

[dazzleman]

It appears that what you're predicting is basically a replay of the 2000 Bush-Gore contest.

I really don't think that the election will play out that way if Dean is the democratic nominee.  Maybe with Gephardt, or even Lieberman, it would play out that way, but I can't see it with Dean.

The circumstances in 2000 were ideal for a Democratic candidate, except for the issue of Clinton's morals.  The economy was apparently doing well under a Democratic president, and there was no apparent foreign policy threat.

Under vastly different circumstances in 2004, the climate going into the election will be quite different, and I don't see this year's election being a replay of 2000.  The national security issue alone will probably cost the Democrats heavily, because that issue is a major weakness for them.

Time will tell.  It's too far out to make firm predictions.

[John]

Dean would Win for Democarts & Bush wins for Repblicans & Bush leads in Polls in states like Pennsvillan, Minnestoa, Iowa & Other Place & Bush wins it

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Dean would Win for Democarts & Bush wins for Repblicans & Bush leads in Polls in states like Pennsvillan, Minnestoa, Iowa & Other Place & Bush wins it

Dean might clinch the nomination, but he cannot win over President Bush unless he hooks up with a Moderate for a running mate.

[Gustaf]

Dean would Win for Democarts & Bush wins for Repblicans & Bush leads in Polls in states like Pennsvillan, Minnestoa, Iowa & Other Place & Bush wins it

John, what's your game? No one would consistently misspell democrats, that is just too much. We're looking through this. Now I am not objecting to your presence, I'm a tolerant person, but I don't get what it does for you. What's the point of it all?

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Dean would Win for Democarts & Bush wins for Repblicans & Bush leads in Polls in states like Pennsvillan, Minnestoa, Iowa & Other Place & Bush wins it

John, what's your game? No one would consistently misspell democrats, that is just too much. We're looking through this. Now I am not objecting to your presence, I'm a tolerant person, but I don't get what it does for you. What's the point of it all?

And Republicans are Replicans.

[Gustaf]

Dean would Win for Democarts & Bush wins for Repblicans & Bush leads in Polls in states like Pennsvillan, Minnestoa, Iowa & Other Place & Bush wins it

John, what's your game? No one would consistently misspell democrats, that is just too much. We're looking through this. Now I am not objecting to your presence, I'm a tolerant person, but I don't get what it does for you. What's the point of it all?

And Republicans are Replicans.

Yeah, that too...

[© tweed]

I've been working on analyzing how a race between Dean and Bush would shape up.

The data and predictions were made in October, so it's a little bit out of date currently. I've begun a second, more indepth look at the numbers which will probably be completed in a month or so.

The analysis is available at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionanalysis/dean.html

Great analysis!
A few things:
I don't see how dean has a 12% lead in Maine or California.  California went Gore by about that much in 2000, and maine was undecided for a long time on election night...
Also, I think George W. Bush wouldhave about a 65-70% chance of beating Dean.

[© tweed]

Dean would Win for Democarts & Bush wins for Repblicans & Bush leads in Polls in states like Pennsvillan, Minnestoa, Iowa & Other Place & Bush wins it

Pennsvillan!!!!

[jravnsbo]

am I reading that right having NH go to Dean?  I don't see that at all, with current polls, dean's tax increase proposal and wanting more regulations.

[Michael Z]

Dean would Win for Democarts & Bush wins for Repblicans & Bush leads in Polls in states like Pennsvillan, Minnestoa, Iowa & Other Place & Bush wins it

John, what's your game? No one would consistently misspell democrats, that is just too much. We're looking through this. Now I am not objecting to your presence, I'm a tolerant person, but I don't get what it does for you. What's the point of it all?

And Republicans are Replicans.

Yeah, that too...

Is that like the Replicants in Blade Runner? Perhaps John is trying to make a subservise statement on the sterilised content in contemporary political discourse! Or...... perhaps not.

Either way, I'm very happy with the analysis Sgpine posted. Mainly because it predicts a Dean victory.

[CHRISTOPHER MICHAE]

Dean would Win for Democarts & Bush wins for Repblicans & Bush leads in Polls in states like Pennsvillan, Minnestoa, Iowa & Other Place & Bush wins it

John, what's your game? No one would consistently misspell democrats, that is just too much. We're looking through this. Now I am not objecting to your presence, I'm a tolerant person, but I don't get what it does for you. What's the point of it all?

And Republicans are Replicans.

Yeah, that too...

Is that like the Replicants in Blade Runner? Perhaps John is trying to make a subservise statement on the sterilised content in contemporary political discourse! Or...... perhaps not.

Either way, I'm very happy with the analysis Sgpine posted. Mainly because it predicts a Dean victory.

the only sterilized content on modern political discourse is found on the fox news networks. Very scripted, rehearsed.

[jravnsbo]

tonight waws a good discussion with Mr Sabato which will be on late rion replay, the news hour where Brit Hume is usually the host.  They went over the Presidential, but also Congressional races.  Learned a few things.  Missed senate portion and will have to catch that on replay later.

All picked dean ( or gephardt) to win nomintion but Bush to win.

Then pickup of House seats by GOP for sure.  at 229 now, and said it could get to 240 esp if Dean is nominee.

NC5 and GA8 in House apparently have strong GOP black candidates running that might win.  If they win primary they will win int he fall it was said.  Good.

Dean would Win for Democarts & Bush wins for Repblicans & Bush leads in Polls in states like Pennsvillan, Minnestoa, Iowa & Other Place & Bush wins it

John, what's your game? No one would consistently misspell democrats, that is just too much. We're looking through this. Now I am not objecting to your presence, I'm a tolerant person, but I don't get what it does for you. What's the point of it all?

And Republicans are Replicans.

Yeah, that too...

Is that like the Replicants in Blade Runner? Perhaps John is trying to make a subservise statement on the sterilised content in contemporary political discourse! Or...... perhaps not.

Either way, I'm very happy with the analysis Sgpine posted. Mainly because it predicts a Dean victory.

the only sterilized content on modern political discourse is found on the fox news networks. Very scripted, rehearsed.

[StevenNick]

I've been working on analyzing how a race between Dean and Bush would shape up.

The data and predictions were made in October, so it's a little bit out of date currently. I've begun a second, more indepth look at the numbers which will probably be completed in a month or so.

The analysis is available at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionanalysis/dean.html

I hope you're prepared to eat crow on Nov. 2, sgpine.  Dean is the biggest loser the dems have managed to produce since Mondale.

[jravnsbo]

imagine when they try to nominate a liberal in 12-16 years they will say remember, McGovern, Mondale AND Dean.

[sgpine]

I've been working on analyzing how a race between Dean and Bush would shape up.

The data and predictions were made in October, so it's a little bit out of date currently. I've begun a second, more indepth look at the numbers which will probably be completed in a month or so.

The analysis is available at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionanalysis/dean.html

I hope you're prepared to eat crow on Nov. 2, sgpine.  Dean is the biggest loser the dems have managed to produce since Mondale.

I'd just like to point out http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm
for all those determined this will be a blowout.

It is too early to tell much. Obviously I made that data up before the polls in New Hampshire, given that New Hampshire was so close in 00, Nadar was certainly going to lose votes in 04, and the proximity of New Hampshire to Vermont. I still don't put much faith in the spead of the poll, given that most people know very little about Dean at this point. Certainly though, an updated analysis would have to edge to state closer to Bush.

Let's not forget that Nadar has decided not to run, however, which could be a nice boon for whichever Democrat runs.

[jravnsbo]

NH should be int eh bush column for some of the reasons I said, not just be closer to him.  But yes thanks for clarifying it needed updated.

Nader has said he will not run as a Green, but may run as an Independant-- I am betting he is waiting for IA and NH to see how things shake out.

I've been working on analyzing how a race between Dean and Bush would shape up.

The data and predictions were made in October, so it's a little bit out of date currently. I've begun a second, more indepth look at the numbers which will probably be completed in a month or so.

The analysis is available at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionanalysis/dean.html

I hope you're prepared to eat crow on Nov. 2, sgpine.  Dean is the biggest loser the dems have managed to produce since Mondale.

I'd just like to point out http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm
for all those determined this will be a blowout.

It is too early to tell much. Obviously I made that data up before the polls in New Hampshire, given that New Hampshire was so close in 00, Nadar was certainly going to lose votes in 04, and the proximity of New Hampshire to Vermont. I still don't put much faith in the spead of the poll, given that most people know very little about Dean at this point. Certainly though, an updated analysis would have to edge to state closer to Bush.

Let's not forget that Nadar has decided not to run, however, which could be a nice boon for whichever Democrat runs.

[© tweed]

http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm

That shows how an upset can be pulled off.  some people had Clinton finishing third in the 1992 Election behind Bush and Perot.

Nader running as an independent means that he isn't on the ballot in as many states, which is good.

[jravnsbo]

92 was just plain crazy.  Perot the day he announced he quit before jumping back in was AHEAD!!  Then he blasted Bush as he left and bragged up Clinton.  It was widely reported that Clinton didn't think he could win when he started running he was just trying to get his name out there for 1996.  But then Perot came in attacking Bush and Clinton soared with Perot taking enough of Bush's supporters and original democrats seeing the opportunity left Perot and returned to the dem nominee which was then Clinton.

This should be a what if question.  If perot didn't drop out and just ran straight up, how would he have done.  He got 19% then and he was jumping in and out and picked a WEAK running mate to get ont he ballot in some states.  Always wondered what it would have been like, and if he could have thrown it into the House at least, as if I remember right he finished 2d in some states.

http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm

That shows how an upset can be pulled off.  some people had Clinton finishing third in the 1992 Election behind Bush and Perot.

Nader running as an independent means that he isn't on the ballot in as many states, which is good.

[© tweed]

92 was just plain crazy.  Perot the day he announced he quit before jumping back in was AHEAD!!  Then he blasted Bush as he left and bragged up Clinton.  It was widely reported that Clinton didn't think he could win when he started running he was just trying to get his name out there for 1996.  But then Perot came in attacking Bush and Clinton soared with Perot taking enough of Bush's supporters and original democrats seeing the opportunity left Perot and returned to the dem nominee which was then Clinton.

This should be a what if question.  If perot didn't drop out and just ran straight up, how would he have done.  He got 19% then and he was jumping in and out and picked a WEAK running mate to get ont he ballot in some states.  Always wondered what it would have been like, and if he could have thrown it into the House at least, as if I remember right he finished 2d in some states.

http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm

That shows how an upset can be pulled off.  some people had Clinton finishing third in the 1992 Election behind Bush and Perot.

Nader running as an independent means that he isn't on the ballot in as many states, which is good.

He finished second in Maine and the news station had him in the elad for a while there, although they called it for Clinton around midnight.

[jravnsbo]

just made a 1992 what if scenario in the Presidential history forum to talk about this.

[© tweed]

just made a 1992 what if scenario in the Presidential history forum to talk about this.

Good!  I'll be there!

[sgpine]

NH should be int eh bush column for some of the reasons I said, not just be closer to him.  But yes thanks for clarifying it needed updated.

Nader has said he will not run as a Green, but may run as an Independant-- I am betting he is waiting for IA and NH to see how things shake out.

I've been working on analyzing how a race between Dean and Bush would shape up.

The data and predictions were made in October, so it's a little bit out of date currently. I've begun a second, more indepth look at the numbers which will probably be completed in a month or so.

The analysis is available at:
http://www.geocities.com/electionanalysis/dean.html

I hope you're prepared to eat crow on Nov. 2, sgpine.  Dean is the biggest loser the dems have managed to produce since Mondale.

I'd just like to point out http://www.worldandi.com/public/1992/june/cr6.cfm
for all those determined this will be a blowout.

It is too early to tell much. Obviously I made that data up before the polls in New Hampshire, given that New Hampshire was so close in 00, Nadar was certainly going to lose votes in 04, and the proximity of New Hampshire to Vermont. I still don't put much faith in the spead of the poll, given that most people know very little about Dean at this point. Certainly though, an updated analysis would have to edge to state closer to Bush.

Let's not forget that Nadar has decided not to run, however, which could be a nice boon for whichever Democrat runs.

Clarification: When I say "edge the state closer to Bush", I mean to say "give more votes to Bush". Until I do thorough analysis I can't really say where it would turn out, certainly it would likely lean Bush rather than lean Dean.