Hypothetical Gay Marriage Referendums round world?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What do you think the maps would look like if France, Germany, the UK, Spain, Italy, Canada etc were to have referendums on SSM?

[Kingpoleon]

Large opposition in Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Asia. Not sure about Latin America and Eastern Europe.

Other than that, I think a majority would vote for it in every county.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Large opposition in Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Asia. Not sure about Latin America and Eastern Europe.

Other than that, I think a majority would vote for it in every county.

what about India

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Large opposition in Africa, the Middle East, and Eastern Asia. Not sure about Latin America and Eastern Europe.

Other than that, I think a majority would vote for it in every county.

what about India

Would probably vote against it, but not in a super lopsided fashion.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It would win a solid majority in Israel.

[Tender Branson]

I think the polls here are a bit overstating support for gay marriage ...

I think if there were an actual referendum, it would pass with only 50-55% support (instead of polls showing it to pass with 60-75%).

I think that only 30% of ÖVP-voters and 20% of FPÖ-voters would vote in favour - compared with 85% of SPÖ/NEOS/Greens/Pilz/KPÖ-voters.

That would yield a 51-49 vote in favour.

[parochial boy]

I suspect this sort of referendum might not follow as predictable a pattern as other "Social issues" type stuff, as immigrant heavy big cities would have much higher anti-SSM votes than they might otherwise have; and even exurban or rural areas would probably not reject it as heavily as otherwise.

So basically

France:
Biggest Yes -  Paris Intramuros/Hauts-de-Seine/Yvelines, most of the big citiy municipalities and then the usual suspects like Brittany
Biggest No - Seine-Saint-Denis and other Banlieues, follwed by the Catholic

UK
Biggest Yes - parts of London, the University towns, Scotland
Biggest No - places like Bradford, Oldham, Blackburn...

Germany
Similar pattern to the above, but maybe an East-West divide too?

Switzerland
Something like the inverse of this, French "protestant" (ie secular) cantons and cities against Catholics and rural Germans

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Russia and Poland would not vote for it.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Russia and Poland would not vote for it.

As for the marriages no but as for the some sort of civil union it might be possible in Poland. As for Russia I doubt that there are any chances for both.

[Mike88]

Here, i think it would had been a repeat of the 2007 Abortion Referendum map:



The NO side would easily win the conservative rural areas in the North and Center, plus Azores and Madeira, while the Metro areas of Porto and Lisbon, plus Alentejo and Algarve would overwhelming vote YES.

Overall, the YES side would win around 56-58% and the NO side 42-44%. Turnout, on the other hand, would be quite low, around 38-40%.

[Dr. MB]

Russia and Poland would not vote for it.

As for the marriages no but as for the some sort of civil union it might be possible in Poland. As for Russia I doubt that there are any chances for both.

Add Belarus and Ukraine.

[TDAS04]

Would any “Eastern European” (formerly Communist) country vote in favor?  Slovenia, Estonia, and the Czech Republic would seem the most likely, but Slovenia turned it down in a referendum a couple years ago.

South Africa is a country with gay marriage (thanks to the court) where I’m guessing a solid majority of the people would vote against it.

Asia is a real mystery.  No country has legalized it yet.   Polls have generally shown majority support in Taiwan (which—along with Nepal—was supposed to legalize it by now—what’s the holdup?).  Thailand would be another good bet for majority support.

Oh yeah, what about Northern Ireland?  Non-Protestants would likely vote in favor, not sure if it would be enough though.

[Crumpets]

Anecdotally from people I know in/from the area, Romania would probably be about 70-30 opposed and Moldova would even more against - maybe as much as 80-20 opposed.

[Dr. MB]

Would any “Eastern European” (formerly Communist) country vote in favor?  Slovenia, Estonia, and the Czech Republic would seem the most likely, but Slovenia turned it down in a referendum a couple years ago.

South Africa is a country with gay marriage (thanks to the court) where I’m guessing a solid majority of the people would vote against it.

Asia is a real mystery.  No country has legalized it yet.   Polls have generally shown majority support in Taiwan (which—along with Nepal—was supposed to legalize it by now—what’s the holdup?).  Thailand would be another good bet for majority support.

Oh yeah, what about Northern Ireland?  Non-Protestants would likely vote in favor, not sure if it would be enough though.

Czech and Estonia are the two least religious countries in Eastern Europe, by far. It would pass with 50–55%.

[Antonio the Sixth]

France would probably vote for it 55/45 or so, with IdF being the strongest support area, and opposition being concentrated on the Mediterranean coast, the Old Catholic West, Alsace and Champagne.

Italy would be close - right now I'd guess it would probably fail because the country has been getting into an increasingly reactionary mood. The map would be more or less what you'd expect - support in the center, opposition in the South and most of the North. Piedmont might vote yes, and even Lombardy potentially (depending on if Milan can outvote the rural areas around Bergamo and in the Alps), but Veneto would probably be a no. Sicily, Calabria and Campania will be massively against it. Puglia maybe a bit less so.

[Lourdes]

Anglophone Caribbean would vote against it, not sure about the Spanish-speaking areas.

[Dr. MB]

Anglophone Caribbean would vote against it, not sure about the Spanish-speaking areas.

This 2014 survey shows 25% support in Dominican Republic and 33% in Puerto Rico. I think with enough campaigning it would be able to pass there especially since opposition is only 55% and that was three years ago, but it would have a hard time in DR and Cuba.

[Former President tack50]

Knowing Spain, if one took place today it would pass in a landslide, say, 68-32. Gay marriage isn't really an issue any more and even our conservatives are quite "gay friendly".

I'd expect all provinces to vote in favour. If anything maybe Ceuta/Melilla (high muslim population+very conservative anyways) and very deep Castille-Leon might vote against by narrow margins.

[Kingpoleon]

Anecdotally from people I know in/from the area, Romania would probably be about 70-30 opposed and Moldova would even more against - maybe as much as 80-20 opposed.

Romania would have very, very low turnout, I think. Iohannis hinted at supporting it, though, and he’s pretty popular.

[thumb21]

In Greece and Cyprus, most opinion polls indicate opposition to gay marriage, however, the most recent one puts 'for' slightly ahead. Probably just an outlier though. Most Greeks I know would vote against it and those who might be for it don't care. Thus, I think it would be low turnout and a lopsided win for against. If turnout was higher, the margins would be closer but I think against would still win. However, for or against gay marriage has never really been a big issue in Greece because the focus is on other things, namely the economy and perhaps with a campaign on the issue, for could win. That being said, I put it at 80% chance of against victory.

Some polls:
http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2017/05/09154356/Central-and-Eastern-Europe-Topline_FINAL-FOR-PUBLICATION.pdf
http://www.equineteurope.org/IMG/pdf/ebs_437_en.pdf
https://www.dianeosis.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/ti_pistevoun_oi_ellines_2017_.pdf

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Russia and Poland would not vote for it.

Heh, it's almost impossible to have a valid referendum (with the turnout exceeding 50%).

[Hnv1]

It would win a solid majority in Israel.

Depends if Arabs turnout is over 30%.

58-42 yes I would say, with with 68-32 among Jewish voters.

But that really depends if it's a referendum on SSM or civil unions in general

[mvd10]

The Netherlands probably would vote 90-10 in favour (if non-SGP voters would even bother to turn out). The 10% would be an interesting coalition of SGP voters, the majority of CU voters, a lot of DENK voters, the few hold-outs in the CDA (lol) and some diehard homophobes in the PVV. And even then 10% is generous.

A referendum on transgender issues probably would be more competitive and interesting in the Netherlands. "Genderneutraal" has been voted the most annoying word of 2017 (though mainly for linguistic reasons I believe).

I think Urk and maybe Staphorst would vote against it (2 relatively small municipalities out of 388). Even most of the bible belt municipalities would vote for it, the CDA and a lot of CU voters have moved on after 16 years.

Then again, you can't ignore turnout issues. I can imagine SGP/CU voters turning out en masse while supporters of gay marriage largely stay home. That could swing some other SGP municipalities.

[Zinneke]

Only Limburg, West Flanders and Luxemburg provinces would even come close to voting against gay marriage in a referendum. The Christian pillar would maybe mobilise against it but not enough to really make it a too divisive issue.

[Santander]

The Netherlands probably would vote 90-10 in favour (if non-SGP voters would even bother to turn out). The 10% would be an interesting coalition of SGP voters, the majority of CU voters, a lot of DENK voters, the few hold-outs in the CDA (lol) and some diehard homophobes in the PVV. And even then 10% is generous.

I have a hard time believing any country, even the Netherlands, would support SSM 90-10 with secret ballots in a legitimate referendum.