Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[heatcharger]

Link to the second one.

How many points does Moore win by? Should Democrats call for the expulsion of Alabama from the union? Discuss.


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Link to NYT results page: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

I'm thinking negative 1% or so.

Can't believe that we needed thread number three before Election Day.

[Maxwell]

Roy the Boy is going to win by 4-5 points.

[Doimper]

It's a complete tossup at this point. This is uncharted territory and nobody knows what turnout is going to look like. Gun to my head, I'd say Jones +1.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

I would guess Moore wins from anywhere between 3-5 points; though a Jones victory wouldn't absolutely shock me. Anyway a lot is obviously going to depend on turnout.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What % of writeins will there be? I'm predicting less than 3%, most likely low 2%.

[Brittain33]

Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

Maybe they lost their darts.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

I wouldn't count on it lol. I'm thinking it'll be +5 Moore.

[Doimper]

Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

Maybe they lost their darts.

lol

[Holmes]

Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

They were going to herd with the rest of the polls but then they saw the SurveyMonkey poll and malfunctioned.

[Devout Centrist]

Very likely their big shift shows Moore up. This is Gravis after all, wouldn’t put it past them to herd.

[KingSweden]

Gravis *still* hasn't put out their poll. Maybe the "big shift" puts Jones up 10.

Maybe they lost their darts.

This made me burst out laughing

[Holmes]

Arkansas Yankee keeps bringing up Ted Kennedy but the last post of the previous megathread is him saying he would just watch as someone strangles Gloria Allred.

So...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moore by single digits, but there's about a 30% chance that Jones shocks the world and wins. Democrats should call for Moore's explusion and Alabama's secession, unless Jones wins of course.

[Horus]

Moore wins by 10-12, gets seated.

[DrScholl]

I say Moore narrowly loses, goes off on a crazed rant and then files multiple lawsuits that have no legal standing. The low turnout is the wild card here and it will work in Jones' favor.

[Kamala]

I say Moore narrowly loses, goes off on a crazed rant and then files multiple lawsuits that have no legal standing. The low turnout is the wild card here and it will work in Jones' favor.

I think Moore wins narrowly, but you’re absolutely right about low turnout being a wildcard. I think that if a voter has even a shred of doubt in Moore, they’d more likely stay home than not.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Arkansas Yankee keeps bringing up Ted Kennedy but the last post of the previous megathread is him saying he would just watch as someone strangles Gloria Allred.

So...

I do not know whether to take you seriously or not.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I'd say it's a tossup at this point. The poll differences are about the same as how it was in the 2016 presidential election, and we know what happened there. If Jones can get the minority turnout up high enough he has a very, very good chance.

[Alabama_Indy10]

I agree with the talk about low turnout helping Jones. Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time.

[Pericles]

Arkansas Yankee keeps bringing up Ted Kennedy but the last post of the previous megathread is him saying he would just watch as someone strangles Gloria Allred.

So...

I do not know whether to take you seriously or not.

I know to not take you seriously.

[Sirius_]

I'd say it's a tossup at this point. The poll differences are about the same as how it was in the 2016 presidential election, and we know what happened there. If Jones can get the minority turnout up high enough he has a very, very good chance.

Betting on disproportionate minority turnout in a special election is like throwing your entire savings at the lottery. Historically, they are almost always under-represented relative to general elections. There's always a first time I guess!

I'd say it's a tossup, but not because of minority turnout.

[Sorenroy]

I plan on making a longer post on this when I have more time (i.e.: after the my semester's finals), but I think that there are reasons a conservative Alabaman's would vote for Roy Moore.

Best case scenario, Roy Moore is found innocent of all charges or (more likely) is forced to resign and send the district back to square one for another special election. Worse case scenario, Moore takes his seat and is a conservative voice for Alabama, albeit a sleazy one and then is easily primaried when his regular election comes up.

Compare this to Jones winning and you have someone that does not represent Alabamans quite as much and has a much better chance of becoming intrenched by swinging to a more moderate point of view.

Even if it reflects negatively on the Republican Party as a whole, there was a good chance that Republican's would lose their three chamber majority anyway come 2018. Better to have the strongest possible majority now and get as much passed while you can then weaken your Congress now in hopes of having a less awful loss come next year.


In terms of predicting the race, I am currently leaning towards a modest Moore victory. I think the actual vote could be anywhere from Jones by three points to Moore by four (trying to keep the range fairly small here, it obviously could be way off). My prediction will probably change if more polls come out this weekend/Monday.

Roy Moore (R) — 50%
Doug Jones (D) — 48%
Write-Ins — 2%

[jaichind]

Gravis  Moore 49(+5) Jones 45(-3)