Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[cvparty]

don’t get your hopes up guys

[VPH]

Hillary's best Jackson County precinct was 23%. Jones at 48% in whatever precinct has reported.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Who are the 2% of Democrats that voted for Moore?

30% AA turnout!

Is that high or low? It seems low.

High, if the overall turnout is 25%.

I think it means that blacks are at 30% of the voting share, while they are in the mid 20's as a share of the state population, which is great news for Dems. A bad sign for Jones is that 27% among whites is pretty mediocre, which means this is going to be a very close race.

[Wisconsin+17]

Still very, very early. Not even 1% in yet.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Don't get your hopes up. It looks like Alabama is sending a pedophile to the Senate.

[BuckeyeNut]

I realize it is very early yet, but I am surprised at the low number of write-in votes.

[Devout Centrist]

It's early folks. Don't get too comfortable.

[TML]

Remember this statement from last year's general election:

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At this moment, that's very true - in fact, the NY Times' final projection has shifted back-and-forth between Moore and Jones multiple times. We'll have to wait for more votes to come in before we have a better idea of who is on track to win. In fact, right now I probably wouldn't even surprised if there ends up being a recount here.

[Doimper]

New exit polling?

https://twitter.com/ASBRI_Polls

[libertpaulian]

If Jones has a lead of 7% or more with 15-20% of precincts reporting, I think he can pull it off.

[Oryxslayer]

Marengo, Jackson, and Autauga drop early vote. 2152 - 1482 - 15 Jones.

Montgomery early vote drops now along with Chocktaw. Now 3303 Jones - 1869 Moore - 15 Write in.

[muon2]

Crossposted

Mobile county is one of the ones I want to see to see where the race is going. It was 55% for Trump with 172K votes, while the state was 62% Trump with 1318K votes. If it starts to go for Jones, then Moore is in danger. Madison and Tuscaloosa are two others to watch that Jones needs to flip.

[LimoLiberal]

Why are people freaking out? The early results look incredible for Doug Jones.

[Wisconsin+17]

Another big vote dump for Jones. Montgomery. Not enough though.

Sheesh. My model is pretty good, but even it requires 5 percent in to start making predictions.

Wayyy too early.

[TheSaint250]

Even though NYT is predicting Jones wins by 0.2%, they say that they believe Moore leads by less than 1 in remaining votes

[Fuzzybigfoot]

don’t get your hopes up guys

Hope is all we have left.  

[Wisconsin+17]

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They are already digging into Montgomery and his strongest areas. Not a good sign.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

NYT has a working model with results:

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

[Oryxslayer]

Warning this is only early vote. Once results start coming in hard and fast, I will stop with these updates.

Jones gets the Pickens early vote. Moore gets Randolph Cullman, Dale, Winston, Blout and Morgan.

4033 - 2903 - 23 Jones.

[LimoLiberal]

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They are already digging into Montgomery and his strongest areas. Not a good sign.

What the heck does this mean? What/who is digging in?

[AtorBoltox]

30 minutes since polls closed and only 1% counted?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tuscaloosa absentee votes have Jones up 73-25

[GeorgiaModerate]

Posted at 8:09 EST:

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[Wisconsin+17]

What it means is that they are vote-dumping in the reporting for Jones, reporting Jones areas early on. This doesn't help Jones at the end of the day because it slants the votes towards Moore later on.

It's a good way to do it if you want the narrative to be Jones ahead for awhile.

More vote dumping. Not enough to shift away from Moore tho. Tuscaloosa.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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