Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Does anyone over 35 use Instagram other than Trump?

Jeanine Pirro loves showing off to the world how hot she thinks she is on it.

Ew

[ursulahx]

These turnout and Instagram posts are fun, but the bottom line is that this race has become nationalised. It's Alabama anti-establishment voters against The World. They see they've got their man in the White House, but they also see him under attack all the time (I'm seeing it from their POV) so they don't feel they've won yet. They have to keep sending their men to the national level again and again. They're still motivated.

This is why Jones won't win, even though he has doubtless swung a lot of people his way. Motivated Republicans massively outnumber motivated Democrats. In any other state - OK, almost any other state - I might be more cautious.

I don't want to be right, y'know.

[Adam Griffin]

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&fips=29169&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=1

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2012&off=0&elect=0&fips=29169&f=0

That's great and all, but it's not the same thing and you know it. It's certainly not a valid comparison within the confines of a federal contest in AL, nor does it refute Tender's ridiculous argument that 90% of AL could show up to vote and elect a Democrat in a landslide. There are plenty of examples of smaller electorates all across the country voting at different margins for different types of elections.

[Blair]

These turnout and Instagram posts are fun, but the bottom line is that this race has become nationalised. It's Alabama anti-establishment voters against The World. They see they've got their man in the White House, but they also see him under attack all the time (I'm seeing it from their POV) so they don't feel they've won yet. They have to keep sending their men to the national level again and again. They're still motivated.

This is why Jones won't win, even though he has doubtless swung a lot of people his way. Motivated Republicans massively outnumber motivated Democrats. In any other state - OK, almost any other state - I might be more cautious.

I don't want to be right, y'know.

I mean this confuses MAGA activists/voters with the generic Alabama Republican voter; I'm sure lots of them like/support Trump but still won't be massively enthused about voting for a accused pedophile in a senate race. I mean heck Trump even endorsed Strange in the Primary, and lost.

The race has got national focus, but has not been nationalised. GA-06 had tons of liberal activists/politicians/money from out of state, and the race was framed as being all about Trump. I mean the Democrats ran someone who worked on the Hill.

The Alabama race has become more about Alabama itself; and has became about whether a paedophile should be in the senate, rather than if the Democrats will have another vote in the Senate.

[DrScholl]

The SoS is still predicting 25% turnout.

[gorelick]

twitter dot com/MikeCasonAL/status/940633184609415168

Expected turnout is 25%, do you guys know what was turnout in 2010 Senator elections?

[Kamala]

Anyone got anymore of those turnout reports?

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

twitter dot com/MikeCasonAL/status/940633184609415168

Expected turnout is 25%, do you guys know what was turnout in 2010 Senator elections?

I can't find any info, but I believe it was probably higher than 25%.

[Adam Griffin]

twitter dot com/MikeCasonAL/status/940633184609415168

Expected turnout is 25%, do you guys know what was turnout in 2010 Senator elections?

1485499 votes in AL-2010-SEN
2611322 active RVs in November 2010
2966933 RVs (including inactive)

So 50.06% if you count inactive registered voters; 56.89% if you count just the actives.

[ursulahx]

These turnout and Instagram posts are fun, but the bottom line is that this race has become nationalised. It's Alabama anti-establishment voters against The World. They see they've got their man in the White House, but they also see him under attack all the time (I'm seeing it from their POV) so they don't feel they've won yet. They have to keep sending their men to the national level again and again. They're still motivated.

This is why Jones won't win, even though he has doubtless swung a lot of people his way. Motivated Republicans massively outnumber motivated Democrats. In any other state - OK, almost any other state - I might be more cautious.

I don't want to be right, y'know.

I mean this confuses MAGA activists/voters with the generic Alabama Republican voter; I'm sure lots of them like/support Trump but still won't be massively enthused about voting for a accused pedophile in a senate race. I mean heck Trump even endorsed Strange in the Primary, and lost.

The race has got national focus, but has not been nationalised. GA-06 had tons of liberal activists/politicians/money from out of state, and the race was framed as being all about Trump. I mean the Democrats ran someone who worked on the Hill.

The Alabama race has become more about Alabama itself; and has became about whether a paedophile should be in the senate, rather than if the Democrats will have another vote in the Senate.

That's an excellent counter-argument, and I hope very much that your view on things is more correct than mine.

I think we need to take a step back and look at the wider perspective on all this. If Jones is crushed, it's business as usual. If he wins, the world is (briefly) turned upside down. But if he loses narrowly, which I think is the most likely result, what happens? Democratic despair at having come so close, more Republican jitters, and a lot of tweets and column inches. But then things settle down. Trump has his victory; Moore has his. The Republicans quietly seat Moore (though I don't know who's going to volunteer to sit next to him) and the GOP's legislative agenda continues its clunky journey forwards.

In other words, whether Jones loses by a lot or by a little, or even just one vote, nothing much changes in the immediate term and the Democrats still have to wait until November 2018 if they hope to make any difference to the country. Sorry if this is stating the obvious, but it would be easy for the Democrats to say "ha! We came close!" if Jones loses; as if this somehow changes everything, where in fact it changes nothing.

(When I say it changes nothing, I mean the election itself; having Moore in the Senate could change a lot of things, but that's yet to be seen.)

[CatoMinor]

I don't understand why people keep comparing Missouri and Alabama politics. They are nothing alike asides a somewhat shared southern heritage.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Ed Gilespie just stated on David Axelrod's radio show that if he was an Alabamian he wouldn't have voted for Moore.

[KingSweden]

I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

Atta boy

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Ed Gilespie just stated on David Axelrod's radio show that if he was an Alabamian he wouldn't have voted for Moore.

But he's not an Alabamian, so...

[America Needs R'hllor]

If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

[Gass3268]

Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

[DrScholl]

Gillespie must have forgotten that he doesn't need to say anything to sound moderate at this point because he already lost his race.

[Sestak]

I shouldn't be reading too much into these turnout reports, right?

Also, even if Moore is elected, Franken should still resign. The other side's lack of standards is not an excuse for ours.

[Sestak]

Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

What a surprise.

[Santander]

If Rapist Roy Moore is elected today (99% chance this happens) then I hope Al franken rescinds his resignation and remains in the senate. Evan if he's "guilty" of accidentally touching people's asses that's NOTHING in comparison to attempting to F*** a 14 year old girl and GILLIBRAND and company should Know this.

When you sound like Trump, you know you're wrong.

Seriously, that is written exactly like a Trump tweet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

What a surprise.

Yeah, the word "surprisingly" was the only surprising part of the statement.

[Anna Komnene]

Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

I hope someone tells them they can still vote. They just have to fill out some info. Still ridiculous.

[Matty]

I'm convinced more than ever that people on the predictit comment page are spreading dubious info in order to help themselves financially with the share prices.

Some unverified twitter account named "evelyn slice" is being spammed all over the predictit comment section saying black turnout is up 70%.

[YPestis25]

Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

If someone is put down as inactive, can they still vote?

[junior chįmp]

Molestin' Moore is done!

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