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April 25, 2018, 09:07:50 pm
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| | |-+  Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
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Poll
Question: Who will win?
Roy Moore (R)   -93 (48.9%)
Doug Jones (D)   -97 (51.1%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 190

Author Topic: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread  (Read 31305 times)
Umengus
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« Reply #1375 on: December 12, 2017, 08:56:05 pm »

lol.

5 minutes ago, it was good to be jones. now, I call the race for Moore...
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

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« Reply #1376 on: December 12, 2017, 08:56:17 pm »

Jones max down to 57.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1377 on: December 12, 2017, 08:56:52 pm »

Houston in the wiregrass  now at 18/28 pushes moore to 53/45.

Critical for jones, 6 precincts now in Huntsville, now only 50.8. Wonder where they are in the county.

Interestingly, St Clair flips w/6/31 precincts. Republican suburb county.  
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Umengus
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« Reply #1378 on: December 12, 2017, 08:57:44 pm »

 Jeff B/DDHQ‏Compte certifié @EsotericCD
1 minil y a 1 minute

We are leaning *hard* towards a Moore victory at this point. Prepare your hottakes, journos.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
krazen1211
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« Reply #1379 on: December 12, 2017, 08:57:55 pm »

Moore in the lead!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1380 on: December 12, 2017, 08:58:14 pm »

DDHQ guy:

Quote
We are leaning *hard* towards a Moore victory at this point. Prepare your hottakes, journos.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/940762137286316033
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« Reply #1381 on: December 12, 2017, 08:58:41 pm »

My model is already calling it for Moore. Over 75% confidence level.
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Singletxguyforfun
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« Reply #1382 on: December 12, 2017, 08:59:20 pm »

I just panic sold my Moore shares at a profit after Tuscaloosa and Talladega dropped. This...might actually happen. lol

Always better to go with your gut. I wish I sold my actual stocks and bought them back after Brexit and Trump. But you made money atleast
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« Reply #1383 on: December 12, 2017, 09:00:07 pm »

Back within 1.5% for Moore
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« Reply #1384 on: December 12, 2017, 09:00:13 pm »

Here come the vote dumps to keep it close. Backing off calling it for now. TCTC.
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« Reply #1385 on: December 12, 2017, 09:00:29 pm »

25 precincts in Birmingham dumped.
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« Reply #1386 on: December 12, 2017, 09:01:12 pm »

Yep, Alabama and the GOP have elected an accused child molester to be a senator.

The GOP is going to be crushed in 2018.
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« Reply #1387 on: December 12, 2017, 09:02:00 pm »

DDHQ guy:

Quote
We are leaning *hard* towards a Moore victory at this point. Prepare your hottakes, journos.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/940762137286316033
Oh well. At least Jones ran an honorable campaign Sad
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #1388 on: December 12, 2017, 09:02:38 pm »

#BoycottAlabama
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« Reply #1389 on: December 12, 2017, 09:03:18 pm »

25/26 precincts in at Limestone, now Moore is slightly underperforming his benchmark.
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« Reply #1390 on: December 12, 2017, 09:03:37 pm »

JONES NOW LEADING BY 0.2 IN NYT TICKER
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« Reply #1391 on: December 12, 2017, 09:04:05 pm »

Jones max at 54. Everyone about +4 Jones has lost.
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The Saint
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« Reply #1392 on: December 12, 2017, 09:05:15 pm »

Hot takes are coming early tonight

It's still anyone's game
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« Reply #1393 on: December 12, 2017, 09:06:34 pm »

hm every county has to swing an average of almost 30 points, thinking about it that way .-.
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« Reply #1394 on: December 12, 2017, 09:06:44 pm »

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
112,867   51.8%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
101,972   46.8   
Total Write-Ins

2,861   1.3   
21% reporting (461 of 2,220 precincts)
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« Reply #1395 on: December 12, 2017, 09:07:37 pm »

Limestone county.  Moore 58.6% with almost all the votes in. Trump won 72.14% back in 2016.  Seems to imply that Jones still have a solid shot at winning.
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« Reply #1396 on: December 12, 2017, 09:08:18 pm »

Model once again predicting Moore victory at 75% confidence level. Moore has a statistical lead here.

Estimated peak Jones is at 51.56% Moore with a 0.4% advantage.

Callable at 39% in.
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« Reply #1397 on: December 12, 2017, 09:09:04 pm »

Quote
HARRY ENTEN 9:07 PM
Folks, anyone who says they know how this is going to end is a liar. That, or you should ask them what the lottery numbers will be tomorrow.
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« Reply #1398 on: December 12, 2017, 09:09:34 pm »

23% reporting 52.8% - 45.9% Moore. Notes:

Birmingham droped 25 Precincts very heavy Jones. Similar votes then 25 precincts in Limestone, though not all precincts are created equal. Lauderdale at 11/32 still holding Jones. Probably all city, little suburbs.

Russell 13/18 jones at 67/32.

10/24 in Lee , jones ahead 57/41.

20/30 monroe 52 - 47 Jones.

St Clair flipped back 12/31 67/31 Moore.

19/27 Talladega, Jones lead 54/46.

9/40 Morgan 50/47 Jones.

10/73 Madison 55/41

Pike drops 25/34 50/48 Moore.
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^The SWPA Lamb oddities are because Lamb is abandoning the 14th for the 17th

That feeling when you are called a Conservative in the Bay Area for just being a Center-Left Democrat.
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« Reply #1399 on: December 12, 2017, 09:09:58 pm »

Quote
Randolph is now completely in. Moore won by 30. His benchmark was to win by 25 points.
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