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+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
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Poll
Question: Who will win?
Roy Moore (R)   -93 (48.9%)
Doug Jones (D)   -97 (51.1%)
Show Pie Chart
Total Voters: 190

Author Topic: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread  (Read 27544 times)
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« Reply #1375 on: December 12, 2017, 08:55:57 pm »
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OMFG! I accidentally went to page 55 of the 2017 special election thread that momentarily climbed above this one, and read that the NYT had called the race for Moore at about 55-45.

Then I realized this was regarding the runoff. Tongue I nearly had a heart attack.
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« Reply #1376 on: December 12, 2017, 08:56:05 pm »
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lol.

5 minutes ago, it was good to be jones. now, I call the race for Moore...
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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« Reply #1377 on: December 12, 2017, 08:56:17 pm »
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Jones max down to 57.
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« Reply #1378 on: December 12, 2017, 08:56:52 pm »
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Houston in the wiregrass  now at 18/28 pushes moore to 53/45.

Critical for jones, 6 precincts now in Huntsville, now only 50.8. Wonder where they are in the county.

Interestingly, St Clair flips w/6/31 precincts. Republican suburb county.  
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« Reply #1379 on: December 12, 2017, 08:57:44 pm »
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 Jeff B/DDHQ‏Compte certifié @EsotericCD
1 minil y a 1 minute

We are leaning *hard* towards a Moore victory at this point. Prepare your hottakes, journos.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
« Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm » 

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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« Reply #1380 on: December 12, 2017, 08:57:55 pm »
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Moore in the lead!
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« Reply #1381 on: December 12, 2017, 08:58:14 pm »
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DDHQ guy:

Quote
We are leaning *hard* towards a Moore victory at this point. Prepare your hottakes, journos.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/940762137286316033
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« Reply #1382 on: December 12, 2017, 08:58:41 pm »
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My model is already calling it for Moore. Over 75% confidence level.
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« Reply #1383 on: December 12, 2017, 08:59:20 pm »
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I just panic sold my Moore shares at a profit after Tuscaloosa and Talladega dropped. This...might actually happen. lol

Always better to go with your gut. I wish I sold my actual stocks and bought them back after Brexit and Trump. But you made money atleast
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« Reply #1384 on: December 12, 2017, 09:00:07 pm »
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Back within 1.5% for Moore
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« Reply #1385 on: December 12, 2017, 09:00:13 pm »
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Here come the vote dumps to keep it close. Backing off calling it for now. TCTC.
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« Reply #1386 on: December 12, 2017, 09:00:29 pm »
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25 precincts in Birmingham dumped.
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« Reply #1387 on: December 12, 2017, 09:01:12 pm »
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Yep, Alabama and the GOP have elected an accused child molester to be a senator.

The GOP is going to be crushed in 2018.
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« Reply #1388 on: December 12, 2017, 09:02:00 pm »
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DDHQ guy:

Quote
We are leaning *hard* towards a Moore victory at this point. Prepare your hottakes, journos.

https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/940762137286316033
Oh well. At least Jones ran an honorable campaign Sad
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« Reply #1389 on: December 12, 2017, 09:02:38 pm »
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#BoycottAlabama
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« Reply #1390 on: December 12, 2017, 09:03:18 pm »
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25/26 precincts in at Limestone, now Moore is slightly underperforming his benchmark.
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« Reply #1391 on: December 12, 2017, 09:03:37 pm »
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JONES NOW LEADING BY 0.2 IN NYT TICKER
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« Reply #1392 on: December 12, 2017, 09:04:05 pm »
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Jones max at 54. Everyone about +4 Jones has lost.
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« Reply #1393 on: December 12, 2017, 09:05:15 pm »
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Hot takes are coming early tonight

It's still anyone's game
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« Reply #1394 on: December 12, 2017, 09:06:34 pm »
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hm every county has to swing an average of almost 30 points, thinking about it that way .-.
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« Reply #1395 on: December 12, 2017, 09:06:44 pm »
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CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
112,867   51.8%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
101,972   46.8   
Total Write-Ins

2,861   1.3   
21% reporting (461 of 2,220 precincts)
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« Reply #1396 on: December 12, 2017, 09:07:37 pm »
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Limestone county.  Moore 58.6% with almost all the votes in. Trump won 72.14% back in 2016.  Seems to imply that Jones still have a solid shot at winning.
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« Reply #1397 on: December 12, 2017, 09:08:18 pm »
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Model once again predicting Moore victory at 75% confidence level. Moore has a statistical lead here.

Estimated peak Jones is at 51.56% Moore with a 0.4% advantage.

Callable at 39% in.
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« Reply #1398 on: December 12, 2017, 09:09:04 pm »
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Quote
HARRY ENTEN 9:07 PM
Folks, anyone who says they know how this is going to end is a liar. That, or you should ask them what the lottery numbers will be tomorrow.
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« Reply #1399 on: December 12, 2017, 09:09:34 pm »
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23% reporting 52.8% - 45.9% Moore. Notes:

Birmingham droped 25 Precincts very heavy Jones. Similar votes then 25 precincts in Limestone, though not all precincts are created equal. Lauderdale at 11/32 still holding Jones. Probably all city, little suburbs.

Russell 13/18 jones at 67/32.

10/24 in Lee , jones ahead 57/41.

20/30 monroe 52 - 47 Jones.

St Clair flipped back 12/31 67/31 Moore.

19/27 Talladega, Jones lead 54/46.

9/40 Morgan 50/47 Jones.

10/73 Madison 55/41

Pike drops 25/34 50/48 Moore.
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That feeling when you are called a Conservative in the Bay Area for just being a Center-Left Democrat.
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