Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
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  Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread
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Poll
Question: Who will win?
#1
Roy Moore (R)
 
#2
Doug Jones (D)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 189

Author Topic: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread  (Read 125215 times)
Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1300 on: December 12, 2017, 09:01:12 PM »

Yep, Alabama and the GOP have elected an accused child molester to be a senator.

The GOP is going to be crushed in 2018.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #1301 on: December 12, 2017, 09:02:00 PM »

Oh well. At least Jones ran an honorable campaign Sad
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #1302 on: December 12, 2017, 09:02:38 PM »

#BoycottAlabama
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #1303 on: December 12, 2017, 09:03:18 PM »

25/26 precincts in at Limestone, now Moore is slightly underperforming his benchmark.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #1304 on: December 12, 2017, 09:03:37 PM »

JONES NOW LEADING BY 0.2 IN NYT TICKER
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #1305 on: December 12, 2017, 09:04:05 PM »

Jones max at 54. Everyone about +4 Jones has lost.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #1306 on: December 12, 2017, 09:05:15 PM »

Hot takes are coming early tonight

It's still anyone's game
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cvparty
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« Reply #1307 on: December 12, 2017, 09:06:34 PM »

hm every county has to swing an average of almost 30 points, thinking about it that way .-.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1308 on: December 12, 2017, 09:06:44 PM »

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
112,867   51.8%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
101,972   46.8   
Total Write-Ins

2,861   1.3   
21% reporting (461 of 2,220 precincts)
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jaichind
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« Reply #1309 on: December 12, 2017, 09:07:37 PM »

Limestone county.  Moore 58.6% with almost all the votes in. Trump won 72.14% back in 2016.  Seems to imply that Jones still have a solid shot at winning.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #1310 on: December 12, 2017, 09:08:18 PM »

Model once again predicting Moore victory at 75% confidence level. Moore has a statistical lead here.

Estimated peak Jones is at 51.56% Moore with a 0.4% advantage.

Callable at 39% in.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1311 on: December 12, 2017, 09:09:04 PM »

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1312 on: December 12, 2017, 09:09:34 PM »

23% reporting 52.8% - 45.9% Moore. Notes:

Birmingham droped 25 Precincts very heavy Jones. Similar votes then 25 precincts in Limestone, though not all precincts are created equal. Lauderdale at 11/32 still holding Jones. Probably all city, little suburbs.

Russell 13/18 jones at 67/32.

10/24 in Lee , jones ahead 57/41.

20/30 monroe 52 - 47 Jones.

St Clair flipped back 12/31 67/31 Moore.

19/27 Talladega, Jones lead 54/46.

9/40 Morgan 50/47 Jones.

10/73 Madison 55/41

Pike drops 25/34 50/48 Moore.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #1313 on: December 12, 2017, 09:09:58 PM »

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« Reply #1314 on: December 12, 2017, 09:10:07 PM »

Callable now down to 31%. Moore with a statistical lead.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1315 on: December 12, 2017, 09:10:44 PM »

Houston County.  Done counting Moore at 61.2%  Back in 2016 Trump was at 72.07.  Still implies neck-to-neck.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #1316 on: December 12, 2017, 09:10:56 PM »

It's so weird seeing the Democrat winning so many counties and behind in the total vote.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1317 on: December 12, 2017, 09:11:43 PM »

Houston different story, won with 61.2, needs more like 63.
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The Ex-Factor
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« Reply #1318 on: December 12, 2017, 09:12:31 PM »

Limestone county.  Moore 58.6% with almost all the votes in. Trump won 72.14% back in 2016.  Seems to imply that Jones still have a solid shot at winning.

FWIW, Limestone in 2012 was Moore 61.49%, Vance 38.51%
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muon2
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« Reply #1319 on: December 12, 2017, 09:12:39 PM »

Cullman is 60% in and was 87% Trump. Moore has 78% which would project to a 53% statewide win depending on turnout in the urban counties.
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Chief Justice Keef
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« Reply #1320 on: December 12, 2017, 09:12:58 PM »

NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.
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BlueDogDemocrat
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« Reply #1321 on: December 12, 2017, 09:13:15 PM »

NY Times now has Jones with a 66% chance of winning.
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Tirnam
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« Reply #1322 on: December 12, 2017, 09:14:25 PM »

Jones with a 66% chance of winning on NYT
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1323 on: December 12, 2017, 09:14:25 PM »

NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Big shift.  They now have Jones margin at +2.6 and his winning chances at 66%.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #1324 on: December 12, 2017, 09:14:39 PM »

NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Now Jones is estimated to win by 2.1% margin and has a 63% chance of winning !
Wow !
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