Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[emailking]

NYTimes had it at 90% Jones at +8.3 for a second

Now back to +4.6

Moore in the lead by about 4% with 50% in

I think it's fair to say that if Jones fails to come back Nate Cohn will have lost most of his credibility tonight

No? 90% != 100%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Jones max now at 50 percent for the first time.

This is a hilarious thread.

Well, you're adding quite a bit to the comedy relief.

[jaichind]

Real question is what is left inside Jefferson County.  If it is like what it is so far then Jones wins.  If its a reversion to the mean then Moore has a shot.

[Wisconsin+17]

Comedy relief, perhaps, but so far I've been right.

[Admiral Kizaru]

lol the dial is slowing being reeled in .... down to 68% now. 

You just now it's going to tick down until the race is called for Moore.

[muon2]

The last three precincts in Limestone were bigger than average so the vote was 59.5% of 2016. But those precincts were also more Jones than average for the county so it puts Moore 13.5% behind Trump there, and that could be enough to lose.

[Silent Hunter]

Just how many votes Jones gets in Montgomery County will be key.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[UncleSam]

A word of caution: the NYTimes indicates that well over 60% of precincts are in, yet believe that about 45-46% of the vote is still out. Obviously they think turnout at these precincts will be higher than those that reported, but that's a big assumption when the guy in the lead by 8 points with 60+% in you're projecting to lose by 4.

[libertpaulian]

Uh, guys, Moore is leading by 7% with almost 60% in.  No time to cheer yet...

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
350,192   52.8%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
303,232   45.7   
Total Write-Ins
—
9,679   1.5   
62% reporting (1,372 of 2,220 precincts)

[Oryxslayer]

Crucially, virtually nothing from Montgomery.

Glancing through most Moore counties, they are at least 60% precincts reporting. Tuscaloosa/Mobile/Birmingham still lots left.

Swing Talladega just finished 50.7 - 49.3 Jones.

Lee and Chambers also swing counties at 19/24  and 14/21 with Jones leads.

[JerryArkansas]

A word of caution: the NYTimes indicates that well over 60% of precincts are in, yet believe that about 45-46% of the vote is still out. Obviously they think turnout at these precincts will be higher than those that reported, but that's a big assumption when the guy in the lead by 8 points with 60+% in you're projecting to lose by 4.

Considering it's mostly urban areas that are out, that isn't to big of an assumption.

Also Jones won TALLADEGA by a point, so take that as you will.

[VPH]

Comedy relief, perhaps, but so far I've been right.

Where are you getting these numbers

[Wisconsin+17]

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LOL. Well I had the first call. LOL.

[Mr. Matt]

Jones advantage keeps decreasing on NYT, com'on fake news!

(how the heck are you supposed to post when every time you hit "post" you get the Warning - new posts kickback?)

[muon2]

Talledega is all in. It was 61.7% for Trump as he won with 62.1% statewide. Jones has won it 50.7 to 49.3. The vote total is 58.9% of the 2016 in Talledega. Those are very good numbers for Jones.

[Jeppe]

There's about 200 precinct left to report in Moore counties, compared to the 800 or so left overall.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

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53.8% voted compared to 2016. That's the number to watch when looking at strong counties for Jones or Moore.

The 2012 Moore-Vance race may be more useful.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=1&year=2012&f=0&off=50&elect=0

[Badger]

Real question is what is left inside Jefferson County.  If it is like what it is so far then Jones wins.  If its a reversion to the mean then Moore has a shot.

What's more important is what's coming out of Mobile. A little over 5% in and Jones is killing there SO FAR. Also less than 5% out of Montgomery. Jones will romp in the latter, but the real question is how does his % hold up in Mobile. Also, his numbers in Baldwin are just under 30%. There's a lot left there.

In short, watch the two gulf counties.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Jones won Talladega! It's a bellwether so it will be close. Lean Jones.

[Rookie Yinzer]

OMG Jones won Lee County!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Jones jumped a bit again in NYT.

[JerryArkansas]

And Jones likely has won Lee, home of Aburn.  Voted Trump by almost 20.  Again take it as you will.

[Wisconsin+17]

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My model assumes that the swing vote is no greater than 2/x where x is the percentage total number of votes counted*100. I've tested it for countless elections, and it's only once been wrong - the PA election last year calling against Trump.

So in this example, 65 percent of the vote is in.

So 2/65 = 3.07. That added to Jones gives us 45.3 + 3.07 = 48

This is under 50 percent so Jones cannot catch Roy Moore.

Within 2% I won't call until 90 percent is in. The model is less good with really close elections.

I also give it an extra percent before I call the election - a 'fudge factor' if you will so that takes care of the 1% off calls, as in PA for Clinton. I also try to call the 'downswings'. Has to have two sections above the callable point.

At 1/x the candidate has a 'statistical lead' meaning that the other candidate is officially behind.