Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Moore by single digits, but there's about a 30% chance that Jones shocks the world and wins. Democrats should call for Moore's explusion and Alabama's secession, unless Jones wins of course.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

So we have Survey Monkey saying "Jones should win, but..." and Gravis saying "Moore should win, but...". How one should interpret this is beyond me.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

I've had Missouri 2012 at the back of my mind for a while too.

Missouri 2012 is my hope too, but Missouri also had a long history of sending Democrats into statewide office up until that point. Alabama does not.

Also, McCaskill was an incumbent, and the political landscape was less divided. Also Missouri voters have shown a lot of willingness even now to split Senate votes with presidential preferences (see Kander). Alabama, not so much.

Furthermore, all of the polls had McCaskill ahead in the final weeks.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Everyone but Ted Kennedy. Oh! I forgot you are to young to be held responsible for him. Bull! I holding you responsible.

Seeing as the last time Kennedy pursued federal office was 1980, I think it's fair to assume Cal and the others on this forum played no part in his failed election bid. In fact, about 35% of the current national electorate wasn't even born when he ran and 2/3 of the electorate were younger than 18^[1]. Add to that that less than 6% of people eligible to vote in 1960 voted for him and you would be lucky to find a single person on Atlas that voted Kennedy for president^[2][3].

Also I love how Arkansas Yankee apparently thinks the Senate would have expelled Ted Kennedy if a bunch of elementary school/middle school kids (fits most of us when he was last alive in 2009) screamed loud enough.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alabama would probably vote for someone's dog or cat, or perhaps even a ham sandwich, as long as it was listed with an (R) on the ballot.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

Because Missouri is a much more flexible state, even on the federal level(comparatively to Alabama).

Also, a couple polls did show McCaskill winning in a landslide.

One poll, SurveyUSA.

And SurveyMonkey just showed Jones winning by 8, so. . .

Yes, two of their seven models show that. The other five show Jones winning by a point or two, or losing by up to 10.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Question - will the number of write-ins be reported when the results come in Tuesday? I recall reading that they'll only report write-in numbers if the number is larger than the margin between both candidates, so will we have to wait on that?

We won't know who the write-in votes are for unless they are needed to determine the outcome, but it appears we will know the aggregate number of write-ins, the row is there on the raw AP page: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/AL_Page_1212.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Who would be a strong Republican candidate that could run against Jones in 2020? Bradley Byrne, perhaps?

Well, I doubt any Republican will stand a chance against Moore in the primary, unless he gets expelled. I doubt Jones runs again in 2020 either.

That question has a Jones wins assumption, and if that was a sarcastic answer, it's not funny.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

It sucks that 2014 was uncontested, I would've loved to see a swig map.

Someone needs to do a swing map from 2008 (it was contested then).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I see jones narrowly pulling it out by 82

82 votes? That's not going to happen, if it's Jones <10,000 the republicans will just fraud the vote, they did it in 2002.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Does Alabama have any notable counting biases?

In 2008, it had a democratic counting bias. I don't know about anything more recent, the coverage doesn't make it clear because the state was called immediately.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Win or lose tonight, I am proud of Doug and the campaign he ran.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oooh...That's Baldwin County, a key area for Moore:

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Since the ballot records can be destroyed immediately after the election, I imagine Moore will be officially pronounced the winner, whatever the networks say.

The AL GOP needed to be exposed and prosecuted for their blatantly obvious fraud in 2002 (they didn't even try to hide it well). When you let them get away with it once, they'll do it again and again.

Didn't someone say that a court had ordered them to preserve the records?

Also, five hours until polls close.

It was effectively overturned by a higher court. There is a certain margin where it becomes so blatantly obvious that they have to certify a Jones win, but as I said yesterday, if it's Jones by <10,000 , or maybe even a bit bigger than that, AL will fraud the vote and make it a Moore win.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls close at 8 ET. Follow results at: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

Results coverage will be at the linked thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=261809.new#new, however I do ask that the following stay on THIS thread: Paragraphs/Essay-Style #Analysis, Discussion of whether the Senate should expel Moore, Discussion of whether AL should secede from the union, and Discussion of whether IceSpear should leave the forum.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm not sure if this was posted above, but

Opinion of the Democratic Party: 44/52
Trump Approval: 48/48

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Alabama DSA claims turnout is 50% in Birmingham....not sure if true tho

Could be a ploy to keep the last-minute Jones vote from turning out - i.e. we have enough votes for Jones to win, no need for you to vote.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results Coverage starts at: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=post;topic=261809.1375;num_replies=1377 at the top of the hour

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Doug Jones
Democrat
21,666   54.6%   
Roy Moore
Republican
17,652   44.5   
Total Write-Ins
—
368   0.9   
3% reporting (65 of 2,220 precincts)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
112,867   51.8%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
101,972   46.8   
Total Write-Ins
—
2,861   1.3   
21% reporting (461 of 2,220 precincts)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
175,947   52.0%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
157,841   46.7   
Total Write-Ins
—
4,538   1.3   
32% reporting (710 of 2,220 precincts)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
228,585   52.2%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
203,064   46.4   
Total Write-Ins
—
5,911   1.4   
43% reporting (944 of 2,220 precincts)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
254,321   51.0%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
238,023   47.7   
Total Write-Ins
—
6,599   1.3   
48% reporting (1,072 of 2,220 precincts)

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CANDIDATE   PARTY   VOTES   PCT.   
Roy Moore
Republican
350,192   52.8%   
Doug Jones
Democrat
303,232   45.7   
Total Write-Ins
—
9,679   1.5   
62% reporting (1,372 of 2,220 precincts)