Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[100% pro-life no matter what]

OK, I talked with a couple friends at the University of Alabama to get a sense of what their friends are all planning to do and got conflicting information.  One said that he only knows 2 Republicans who are not voting for Moore and that all of the rest are still voting for him (and he once said his fraternity only has 2 Democrats out of like 75-100 people).  The other said he thinks most of their College Republicans chapter is planning to write in Nick Saban.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does anyone know how the night will go in terms of vote reporting - like should Moore be expected to post a big lead at first then Jones slowly whittles away at it, or vice versa, or?

I'd like to know this too. What reports early, what stays late?

Has anyone ever paid close enough attention to an Alabama race to know this?

The last competitive statewide election in Alabama seems to have been all the way back in 2002 so we're more or less going in blind.

I think the Moore-Strange margin was relatively constant through the night, if that helps.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Looking promising!

https://twitter.com/JoyceWhiteVance/status/940681439737188352

An upper-middle class precinct in Birmingham might be significantly more pro-Moore than Jefferson County as a whole, though

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

How do we expect the ultra-wealthy Mountain Brook (in non-Birmingham Jefferson County) to vote?

Isn't this the Whole Foods district? I remember there being a very Jones-favorable informal poll there.

I got the 2016 numbers for the three precincts that say they are in Mountain Brook:

Trump 66-Clinton 26
Shelby 80-Crumpton 20
Palmer 79-Putman 21

So, it is Safe R, but Trump noticeably underperformed.  Moore probably does even worse than Trump's numbers, but might still win comfortably.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Apparently CBS's exit poll is expected around 5:00? Don't crucify me

EST or Central?

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incoming heart attack at 1..2...3...

The early exit polls usually don't have topline numbers.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

That's worse than most polls for Moore.  This could be a disaster.

On a side note, are there any Clinton-Moore voters?  Who would they be??

[100% pro-life no matter what]

One MSNBC Exit Poll Question

Moore allegations are....
Probably/Definitely True- 49% (26 Probably/23 Definite)
Probably/Definitely False- 45% (29 Probably/16 Definite)

Link?

I'm watching it live...  Sorry

Another one was which Party would you rather be in control of the Senate

51% GOP, 43% Democrats

Republican Party Approval is 43/51 which of course could just mean anger at Establishments and not Democratic anger

A ton of conservatives stayed home.  If Moore has a chance, it will be very narrowly.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

CNN: 55% unfavorable opinion of Roy Moore

I can't imagine many people with a favorable opinion of Moore voting against him (I could imagine the reverse), so I think that says that Moore will get at least 45% of the vote.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

Black Alabamians are pro-life and Jones was going to get 90 percent of them regardless.

54-40 which way- and how was the question phrased?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

40/54 believe that abortion should remain legal so I don't think Moore's "anti-life," "anti-baby," propaganda worked.

Black Alabamians are pro-life and Jones was going to get 90 percent of them regardless.

54-40 which way- and how was the question phrased?

Should abortion remain legal?

Yes- 40
No- 54

That could suggest conservatives staying home too or that conservatives are still at work and will vote after 5?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I can certainly imagine people with unfavorable views of Moore still voting for him, but this points to a likely Jones victory.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I wonder how the students of UofA voted...

Probably Jones by about 15 points or so with a larger than average swing from maybe Trump by 20?  Lots of Republicans likely either stayed home or wrote in somebody.  Precinct data says Trump won the Alabama campus precinct by low-double digits, but I could also imagine that the off-campus student vote (i.e. more Greek) and students more interested in their vote at their home address made it slightly more pro-Trump.  Plus, the out-of-state students (likely more Democratic) may be more likely to vote on campus because it's their only way to vote in Alabama.

EDIT: Maybe actually a little stronger for Trump.  All votes within one mile of the UofA campus were 58-35 Trump, and that would include tons of grad students (and those with postgrad degrees are more Democratic) and possibly professors.  Trump may have been well into the 60s with Bama undergrads.  Still, I would expect a massive shift to Moore with these people.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

When could we expect the head to head numbers? Not until polls close?

Right

[100% pro-life no matter what]

If I recall, the exit polls never really gave us an Ossoff win...

Were there exit polls in that race?  I don't think I have ever seen house race exit polling?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Nina Turner just called Roy Moore "batshit crazy" on CNN.

Well, I think that’s the first time I’ve ever agreed with her.

CNN's coverage is so anti-Moore, it's not even funny.  And, FOX isn't covering it, so I don't know what to watch.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Any other Moore supporters in here?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Those 18-24 numbers have to be worrisome for Dems. Also, 8% of those who believe the accusations still voted for Moore.

Romney (and presumably Trump) won the 18-24 vote in Alabama.  That swing isn't much bigger than the statewide swing, though (actually maybe a point or two smaller).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Uh are those Etowah county numbers real??

Likely an overwhelmingly black precinct.  Precincts can very heavily in Alabama.