Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[Sestak]

Holy what 3 megathreads for ALABAMA??? Whoever would have guessed?

Also, apologies for threatening to strangle Gloria Allred. I was just really mad at her bungling.

[Sestak]

There is a huge difference between both parties. I doubt if a Democrat could get away with what Moore is accused of in any state, even in Vermont.

The evangelical church believes it is under full scale attack by the left.  They are feeling minority status.  They are voting like minorities generally do.

I go to weekly Bible study where I am probably the most liberal person in the group.

When I came to this area in 1977 I was about the only Republican around.

lmao do they really feel as if they are under attack? That is honestly so, so, so sad.

As a white catholic male who went to a high school with only 12% white people and most non religious, I have never felt persecuted for who I am in my entire life.

(I'm not trying to insult you by the way. I appreciate your posts & perspective even though we have very different worldviews.)

Also lol, even if they do feel under attack, how is that an excuse for tolerating pedophilia?

Because they believe him that he did not commit the offenses or they believe that he can be foregiven after 40 years without any similar charges. Contrary to what you allege, they are not evil people. T

Again he is not a pedofile, if he committed the offenses. The alleged victims were older than 13.  A true pedofile does not just stop. It is the compulsion that makes a true pedophile.

Y’all tell me to stop bringing up a 50 year old offense by Kennedy, but you want to hang Moore for 40 year old alleged offenses.

Kennedy is not running for anything.

Moore is running for Senate.

Kennedy and Clinton were before my time anyway. (As in, before I paid attention to politics).

[Sestak]

A challenge for y'all tonight:

Convince me that moore will not be akin'd on election night. Convince me that this will not be a missouri 2012 redux.

Because the polls then had it a tossup, and she outperformed by like 14 points.

Why is this different?

I've had Missouri 2012 at the back of my mind for a while too.

Missouri 2012 is my hope too, but Missouri also had a long history of sending Democrats into statewide office up until that point. Alabama does not.

Also, McCaskill was an incumbent, and the political landscape was less divided. Also Missouri voters have shown a lot of willingness even now to split Senate votes with presidential preferences (see Kander). Alabama, not so much.

[Sestak]

Let's just all agree on the term "kiddy diddler" ok? Also Ted Kennedy.

Ok with me.  But a huge number of people do not know what it means.  They might not google it.

Why don’t you just say what you claim he did.  You should also say he did it 40 years ago.

If someone killed someone 40 years ago, they're still a murderer.

[Sestak]

I'd have a lot to say about normalizing middle aged people being attracted to children by using the "But pedophiles are only for under 13" thing. But I think Philip DeFranco has already said all I want to say on this.

[Sestak]

Unless I have someone on ignore, I did not see one mention that Roy Moore announced that he's gonna sue the pants off these liars!!!!! If that doesn't confirm how absurd this is, nothing will!

I am officially announcing this afternoon I filed lawsuits against each of my false accusers for libel and or slander. And I will not settle, see you in court. #RoyMoore #Alabama #Senate #Election #RoyMooreSenate #MAGA #FakeNews

Is he filing in state court? If so, he'd probably win no matter what since they worship the (R) over there.

Also, he literally has no proof of libel, and has lied numerous times to try to discredit his accusers.

[Sestak]

OK. Question.

If Moore wins, and is expelled (which is very possible), who does Ivey appoint? Strange again?

[Sestak]

I'm kinda surprised no one has posted this yet:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=3&v=HjLMAoejW-A

Luntz did a focus group consisting entirely of Roy Moore supporters and the results were...let's go with "interesting."  I'm still pretty sure Jones is gonna win, but Jesus F***ing Christ, there are some really sick people out there, to say the least.

There's a lot of scary stuff here and the whole thing is well worth watching, but these stood out to me in particular (each from different voters and for different reasons):

At 2:48: "40 years ago in Alabama, there's a lotta mommas and daddys that'd be thrilled their 14 year-old was gettin' hit on by a district attorney"

At 4:30: "This man [Moore] has more integrity than you can find in the entire Congress right now.  Don't fall for the George Soros assassination plan!" (because what good is a conspiracy theory without anti-Semitism?)

At 6:29 on why African-Americans don't vote Republican: "Well, in my opinion, they be stupid." (I don't know why, but this one also kinda stood out to me for whatever reason, probably the lack of self-awareness)

I saw something about that, but couldn't bring myself to watch it.

I'm assuming everyone there was saying stuff that was that horrendous?

[Sestak]

So we had this wonderful thing about Moore that just came out: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/10/politics/kfile-roy-moore-aroostook-watchmen/index.html

Basically saying to get rid of the amendments after the tenth to 'eliminate many problems', but specifically in that in terms of references of amendments, it was that of both the 14th and the 17th Amendments.

Wait.

The Seventeenth gave the people the power to elect Senators over the state legislatures. Without it, Moore would never have a chance at being one.

[Sestak]

So we had this wonderful thing about Moore that just came out: http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/10/politics/kfile-roy-moore-aroostook-watchmen/index.html

Basically saying to get rid of the amendments after the tenth to 'eliminate many problems', but specifically in that in terms of references of amendments, it was that of both the 14th and the 17th Amendments.

Wait.

The Seventeenth gave the people the power to elect Senators over the state legislatures. Without it, Moore would never have a chance at being one.

Also, he's saying he's SPECIFICALLY AGAINST INCORPORATION. In other words, he thinks states should be able to violate your rights.

Agree with above. RUN ADS IMMEDIATELY.

[Sestak]

Moore by single digits, but there's about a 30% chance that Jones shocks the world and wins. Democrats should call for Moore's explusion and Alabama's secession, unless Jones wins of course.

What be the grounds for expulsion? 

67.

[Sestak]

Hang on, why are we shifting our estimates towards Jones? Just because of Fox?

[Sestak]

Have all 6 GOP reps endorsed Moore btw?

[Sestak]

Of the two polls still coming out, I am not joking, one of them just announced that it could be a narrow lead for Moore, a tie, or a narrow lead for Jones (Monmouth.)

Hedge Hedge Hedge!

[Sestak]

So, Monmouth is completely useless...

[Sestak]

FF Gwen Moore:

http://thehill.com/homenews/house/364270-dem-lawmaker-calls-for-extra-protections-to-safeguard-senate-pages-if-roy

[Sestak]

I can only hope you're right. They probably should've waited until tomorrow though, so Republicans wouldn't have any time to fearmonger against the Kenyan Mooselum and whip the Racist AL Hicks into a frenzy.

Those voters were never going to vote for Jones in the first place.

He's speaking in terms of turnout.

[Sestak]

OK, this is just fycking hilarious.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/364308-pro-trump-group-has-12-year-old-girl-interview-roy-moore

A pro-Trump super PAC arranged for a 12-year-old girl to interview Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) as he faces mounting allegations of sexual misconduct with teenage girls.

The America First Project brought Millie March, a girl whose interviews during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) went viral, to Alabama to interview Moore.

“We decided that we were going to bring Millie to Alabama, after everything that’s happened in this Alabama Senate race up until this point,” America First Project’s Jennifer Lawrence said in the video, adding that the group wanted "to show there is a wide range of people who support Roy Moore."

Saw this on Jonah Goldberg's feed a few hours ago. Ridiculous.

[Sestak]

Everyone keeps blabbing about how Alabama deserves better than Moore, but they really don't.

The rest of America does, but not this state.

The Senate writes the laws for all of us.

[Sestak]

When do the other polls promised for today (by Harry Enten, see above) get released?

Apparently never.

They got released. They were the Change and Monmouth ones. Enten said that when only Fox and Emerson were out.

[Sestak]

The Alabama Democratic Conference is trying to get African American turnout to 50% tommorrow

If they manage that it'll be a ing miracle.

[Sestak]

More from SurveyMonkey...long but interesting: https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/past-vote-vs-intention-an-alabama-senate-race-update/

The updated numbers seem to be nothing but good news for Jones. I put down the specific changes from the last poll's numbers here, but Moore only made gains on his margin is their "Standard + 2016 Vote Weights; Weighted by Self-Reported Voting" model. Everything else shows Jones margin gains of up to 14 points. What is causing such a shift towards Jones in this last week? What happened this past week that's pushing Jones over the edge?

Late breaking voters.

Similar to how Trump made up a lot of ground in the last week or so in 2016 (including BEFORE the Comey letter, btw).

[Sestak]

I just got home from voting with my grandparents. Hard to tell about turnout because of our small precinct but most polling places around here are very crowded.

I thought you weren't going to vote for anyone

This is what I said, "Me and my dad both supported Strange in the GOP primary and runoff. He says that he’s not voting this time." My dad isn't voting. I did

Did you write anyone in?

I voted for Jones

FF

[Sestak]

I shouldn't be reading too much into these turnout reports, right?

Also, even if Moore is elected, Franken should still resign. The other side's lack of standards is not an excuse for ours.

[Sestak]

Some twitter reports of regular black voters surprisingly being put on inactive voter lists.

What a surprise.