Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread (user search)
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  Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who will win?
#1
Roy Moore (R)
 
#2
Doug Jones (D)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 189

Author Topic: Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread  (Read 125241 times)
muon2
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« on: December 12, 2017, 08:27:51 PM »

Crossposted

Mobile county is one of the ones I want to see to see where the race is going. It was 55% for Trump with 172K votes, while the state was 62% Trump with 1318K votes. If it starts to go for Jones, then Moore is in danger. Madison and Tuscaloosa are two others to watch that Jones needs to flip.
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muon2
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« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2017, 08:41:17 PM »


That's probably true. Talladega matched Trump's statewide totals fairly well. The turnout in the county matters, too. With a quarter in, there are 4.3K votes cast. In 2016 there were 33.4K cast, so that projects this election to have about half the turnout of 2016.
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muon2
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« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2017, 08:46:54 PM »

In Limestone with almost half in Moore is 14% behind Trump+Johnson. If carried statewide that puts Jones and Moore in a virtual tie.
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muon2
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« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2017, 08:55:37 PM »

Limestone is now 88% in and is on pace to have about 22K votes vs 40K in 2016. At 61% Moore is 11% behind Trump who got 72% in 2016. That projects to a small edge for Moore. Given the turnout uncertainties, it's still too close to call.
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muon2
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« Reply #4 on: December 12, 2017, 09:12:39 PM »

Cullman is 60% in and was 87% Trump. Moore has 78% which would project to a 53% statewide win depending on turnout in the urban counties.
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muon2
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« Reply #5 on: December 12, 2017, 09:19:08 PM »

Walker county is half in and Moore is behind Trumps numbers by a little over 12%. That does put the edge slightly to Jones. Shelby will be key to see if the suburban vote has dropped off more for Moore than the more rural counties. 
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muon2
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« Reply #6 on: December 12, 2017, 09:22:01 PM »


53.8% voted compared to 2016. That's the number to watch when looking at strong counties for Jones or Moore.
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muon2
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« Reply #7 on: December 12, 2017, 09:25:11 PM »


53.8% voted compared to 2016. That's the number to watch when looking at strong counties for Jones or Moore.

For example Fayette has 57.3% of its 2016 vote and is a 75% Moore county only down 6% from 2016.
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muon2
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« Reply #8 on: December 12, 2017, 09:37:29 PM »

The last three precincts in Limestone were bigger than average so the vote was 59.5% of 2016. But those precincts were also more Jones than average for the county so it puts Moore 13.5% behind Trump there, and that could be enough to lose.
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muon2
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« Reply #9 on: December 12, 2017, 09:42:36 PM »

Talledega is all in. It was 61.7% for Trump as he won with 62.1% statewide. Jones has won it 50.7 to 49.3. The vote total is 58.9% of the 2016 in Talledega. Those are very good numbers for Jones.
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muon2
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« Reply #10 on: December 12, 2017, 10:01:46 PM »

I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn that feature off in your profile.
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muon2
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« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2017, 10:09:55 PM »

Given the outstanding precincts this looks like a Jones win by a a couple of percent.
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muon2
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« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2017, 10:17:53 PM »

I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn that feature off in your profile.
how

Go to the Look and Layout Preferences. Click the box the says "Don't warn on new replies made while posting."
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