Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[JerryArkansas]

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Houston different story, won with 61.2, needs more like 63.

[JerryArkansas]

Moore's lead right at the callable line. About 90% confidence level now.

Jones max still at 50.5 percent here.

Where it this bullsh**t model coming from, or are you just pulling this from your ass?

[JerryArkansas]

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Stats. Moore's been building on a statistical advantage, hovering between 75-90 percent confidence for awhile now.

After a certain percentage of votes in, the votes outstanding are much less likely to swing.

4% after 50 percent in is callable.

Sure, whatever you say honey.  Making these bullsh**t numbers seem legit enough though.   

[JerryArkansas]

A word of caution: the NYTimes indicates that well over 60% of precincts are in, yet believe that about 45-46% of the vote is still out. Obviously they think turnout at these precincts will be higher than those that reported, but that's a big assumption when the guy in the lead by 8 points with 60+% in you're projecting to lose by 4.

Considering it's mostly urban areas that are out, that isn't to big of an assumption.

Also Jones won TALLADEGA by a point, so take that as you will.

[JerryArkansas]

And Jones likely has won Lee, home of Aburn.  Voted Trump by almost 20.  Again take it as you will.

[JerryArkansas]

Most precincts out from Jones counties now.  Only like 70 from Moore counties. 

[JerryArkansas]

HE DID IT

He could still lose this, not celebration yet.