Alabama Megathread 3: Results Thread

[ProudModerate2]

NYT ticker flips again, Jones leading by 0.4% in EFV.

Now Jones is estimated to win by 2.1% margin and has a 63% chance of winning !
Wow !

[ProudModerate2]

If you are not watching the NYT up-to-the-minute information, you need to do so!.
Click this link ......

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/alabama-senate-special-election-roy-moore-doug-jones

[ProudModerate2]

Jones chance of winning now at 75% !!!!

[ProudModerate2]

Guys look at the time series for the predicted margin/win percentage on the NYT page. Wild swings all night. Don't get hopes too high because at one point in time it has Jones at > 2

OK, I will calm down a bit, but very early numbers in their model and calculations can easily be misinterpreted. But as the total percentage that in and reported keeps climbing their model estimates for the balance of votes should be more and more accurate.

Right now it is 46% total reported. And the NYT estimates Jones' chance of winning is 72% with an approx. margin of 4.1

That's pretty damn high.

[ProudModerate2]

Huge jump for Jones in actual reported numbers.
Moore was leading by an 8-ish margin, now he only leads by 4.7

[ProudModerate2]

Actual reported numbers now only show Moore leading by 2.8

[ProudModerate2]

I'm predicting a 0.5% Jones victory. Subject to change. On the NYT page and watching CNN's hopeful analysis.

Edit: For f***'s sake I've submitted like 5 times and it always shows up the "Warning - while you were typing 2 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post."

You can turn off that warning in your personal settings. I did that a long time ago.

[ProudModerate2]

Guys .... It's going to be close !

[ProudModerate2]

Actual reported numbers now only show Moore leading by 0.7
Go Jones !

[ProudModerate2]

Baldwin County was the last major county for Moore that was yet to be counted, it is now almost done. So there is little to none votes left that will be advantageous to Moore.
But Jones still has a good amount of votes yet to be counted in Birmingham and some smaller precincts still to count around the big cities of Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Montgomery and Mobile
Jones could do this.

[ProudModerate2]

Jones is leading !!!!

[ProudModerate2]

Looks like a lot of posters have some explaining to do.

Where did they go ?
Why are they not commenting any more ?

[ProudModerate2]

FOX called it for JONES!

LOL.
That is great coming from Fox ..... but will the Deplorables say that it is "Fake" news ?

[ProudModerate2]

LOLZ. WHERE IS YOUR MODEL NOW?

Hopefully Kenobi will fyck off for another 6 months without bothering us.
Anyhoo.

HE DID IT!!!!!

Yes .... where did Kenobi go ?
Where is his great voting model of the 21 century ?
Kenobi should have used the Jedi Force with his numbers .... maybe that would have helped.

[ProudModerate2]

Doug Jones will probably lose in 2020, unfortunately.

More than likely you are probably correct.
But the important thing is that Alabama rejected a pedophile, and they also rejected the president's calling for this child molester to be seated in our government.

[ProudModerate2]

With 94% of votes counted, there are a total of approx 21,000 write-in votes.
Jones only leads by about 13,000.
What if those "write-in" would have been for Moore.
We may have had a different story.

[ProudModerate2]

Calling it for Moore.
Moore has won this.

And with that, the troll retreats silently under the bridge, defeated and wounded.
(Terry Sanford)

LOL.
I like that.

[ProudModerate2]

We need to bump this image for all to see again.
Enjoy.

[ProudModerate2]

Now the important thing for Jones - keep the margin  high enough to prevent a recount or other shenanigans. Good chance of hitting a margin high enough, but still too close for comfort.

Even if a recount is triggered, I think it's incredibly unlikely that it could overturn this margin.

Looks like most of the count yet to report is around the huge city of Birmingham (and a tiny bit around Mobile).
So Jones' lead will only grow more.

[ProudModerate2]

The CNN hacks are speaking of this race as a referendum on Trump .... Yes, Trump "endorsed" Moore, but he hardly put the full prestige of the White House behind Moore.  

.... (Indeed, Bannon is the 2nd biggest loser tonight, behind Moore.)

If Trump has half a brain, he'll meet with Jones and discuss common ground.

Wrong, wrong and wrong.

1. This is a BIG middle-finger to trump! Yuge!
2. trump is the 2nd biggest loser tonight, Bannon is 3rd.
3. LOL at you thinking that "trump has half a brain." He just recently tweeted to another Senator suggesting that she should be "begging" (trump put that in quotes), which was a sexist smear to women, and you think that trump can activate "half a brain?"  Who are you kidding ?

[ProudModerate2]

Trump finally tweets; shockingly civil compared to his usual tweet storms...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Probably since he didn't write it.

Yeah, cmon. This isn't the way he normally talks. No way it is his.

Yeah, we will hear the real Trump in the morning.

You mean like at 3 or 4 am Eastern time, when his babysitters are not watching him ?
He probably hides in the closet while tweeting.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/alweaver22/status/940794703292878848

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ouch

Ronna has been an absolute dumpster fire as RNC chair. She's sh**t at campaigning and organizing.

LMAO.
Sh*t is on the GOP's face for actually jumping back-in and supporting this child molester.
"Disgusting." (I put that word in quotes just for you Fuzzy).

[ProudModerate2]

Mobile Finished up - Now waiting on 25 Precincts from Jefferson. NYT suspects will push Jones to 1%, but is it drops his margin, we could be in recount territory.

Now 99% counted.
Left are a handful of precincts around Birmingham, which is "more" votes for Jones.
He currently leads by 1.1 margin

[ProudModerate2]

Recount baby. Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

You are the 4th bigger loser tonight after Moore, Trump, and Bannon, "baby". You are the statistical equivalent of a quack. You've shrunk from mere hack to outright troll.

On behalf of every likable person here, GTFO.

I second this.

[ProudModerate2]

Recount baby. Still TCTC and we won't finish the night before we know the results.

Surprised by the swing though. Only the second time it's swung that much over that much over the course of the night. It's unusual. Usually ballots over 70 percent of the electorate won't swing more than 3 percent. Tonight it did.

I'll have to check my bounds. See if it's better with 3/x vs 2/x. Not sure. Anyways, NYT saying it was Jones +10 was crazy sauce. I was right about Jones being under 50, though.

The cuck returns to grace us with his terrible opinions

OMG.
He is back for "more" humiliation.
See his new post, five comments above this one.