AL-Trafalgar: Moore +5

[RogueBeaver]

51/46.

[MT Treasurer]

I'm skeptical. Trafalgar also overestimated Moore by a lot in the primary, so take this with a grain of salt.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Trafalgar also overestimated Moore by a lot in the primary, so take this with a grain of salt.

This. but I'm feeling fairly confident that Moore will pull this out, unfortunately.

[The Other Castro]

The (artist formerly known as the) gold standard hath spoken.

[IceSpear]

Trafalgar might actually underestimate a Republican for once.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Either we are seeing crazy noise or there has been a massive shift in young voters coming home to Moore.  Old polls showed Moore around 25% with them, and this poll has 18-25's breaking 58-36 for Moore.

[Jeppe]

The (artist formerly known as the) gold standard hath spoken.

They underesimated Northam’s margin by like 8 points. If the same error occurs again, then that’s enough for a Jones win. Again, Jones is only a single polling error away from a victory.

[MT Treasurer]

The (artist formerly known as the) gold standard hath spoken.

They underesimated Northam’s margin by like 8 points. If the same error occurs again, then that’s enough for a Jones win. Again, Jones is only a single polling error away from a victory.

And they also thought Trump was going to win NV and NH while losing WI.

[Tender Branson]

Very specious leads for Moore ...

I have a feeling these mostly R-pollsters are going to be wrong, just like the VA polls overestimated the R candidate by about 6-9 points.

[Sestak]

Now this feels like they're all herding.

[King Lear]

This is probably pretty accurate unfortunately.

[Skye]

The (artist formerly known as the) gold standard hath spoken.

They underesimated Northam’s margin by like 8 points. If the same error occurs again, then that’s enough for a Jones win. Again, Jones is only a single polling error away from a victory.

And they also thought Trump was going to win NV and NH while losing WI.

Can't blame them. Two <1% margins missed? Eh.

Trafalgar has spoken. Moore has won.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Wait a moment, why does the link display a "document in trash" error when clicked on? Is this a joke?

[Sestak]

The (artist formerly known as the) gold standard hath spoken.

They underesimated Northam’s margin by like 8 points. If the same error occurs again, then that’s enough for a Jones win. Again, Jones is only a single polling error away from a victory.

And they also thought Trump was going to win NV and NH while losing WI.

Can't blame them. Two <1% margins missed? Eh.

Trafalgar has spoken. Moore has won.

Uh, as stated above, they missed VA badly.

[IceSpear]

The (artist formerly known as the) gold standard hath spoken.

They underesimated Northam’s margin by like 8 points. If the same error occurs again, then that’s enough for a Jones win. Again, Jones is only a single polling error away from a victory.

And they also thought Trump was going to win NV and NH while losing WI.

Can't blame them. Two <1% margins missed? Eh.

Trafalgar has spoken. Moore has won.

Moore has won, but not because of this poll.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=276556.0

[uti2]

Can't blame them. Two <1% margins missed? Eh.

Trafalgar has spoken. Moore has won.

NH was never going to vote to the right of the WI. They also underestimated Clinton by like 5 points in CO.

NH being to the right of WI is what elected Bush in 2000.

[MT Treasurer]

Can't blame them. Two <1% margins missed? Eh.

Trafalgar has spoken. Moore has won.

NH was never going to vote to the right of the WI. They also underestimated Clinton by like 5 points in CO.

NH being to the right of WI is what elected Bush in 2000.

Yes, and VA voted to the right of WV in 2000. Not sure how that's relevant now.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Wait a moment, why does the link display a "document in trash" error when clicked on? Is this a joke?

It works fine for me

[Pericles]

It's not looking great for Jones.

[uti2]

Can't blame them. Two <1% margins missed? Eh.

Trafalgar has spoken. Moore has won.

NH was never going to vote to the right of the WI. They also underestimated Clinton by like 5 points in CO.

NH being to the right of WI is what elected Bush in 2000.

Yes, and VA voted to the right of WV in 2000. Not sure how that's relevant now.

WI voted to the left of NH in 2012.

[King Lear]

Why is MT Treasurer so obsessed with New Hampshire being safe democratic, trump came within less then a point of flipping the state last year, and has a good shot of flipping it in 2020 if he's Winning again. Everyone accuses me of trolling, but this seems to be the definition of trolling.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Why is MT Treasurer so obsessed with New Hampshire being safe democratic, trump came within less then a point of flipping the state last year, and has a good shot of flipping it in 2020 if he's Winning again. Everyone accuses me of trolling, but this seems to be the definition of trolling.

It still voted for Hillary like everyone expected. Same case for Climbing Maggie, Kuster, and Shea-Porter. Safe D!

[Pericles]

New Hampshire voted to the right of the nation. If 2020 is competitive it's a toss up and certainly not safe D.

[IceSpear]

WI voted to the left of NH in 2012.

Yeah, 1 point to the left. Let's not forget that Mittens was considered a "perfect fit" for NH, I even remember some people saying it would be Lean R in the general if he won the nomination. 2012 should have been the first warning sign for Republicans, but after how badly they got crushed by the flawless, utterly ruthless Shaheen/Hassan machine in 2014, it should have been even more obvious. Oh, and what happened to the "GOP rising star" Kelly Ayotte who ended up doing 3.5 points worse than Ron Johnson and 1.5 points worse than Pat Toomey? The 2014 and 2016 results really tell the whole story, and I'd rather be the WI Republican Party than their NH counterpart in the long term. That obviously doesn't mean that Baldwin will lose or that Walker is safe, but NH is beyond gone for Republicans. Can't wait until Sununu is kicked to the curb like his brother and NH Republicans lose the Executive Council, the State Senate and the State House.

Remember the early NH polls in 2011? Scroll down on this page, lol.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nh/new_hampshire_romney_vs_obama-2030.html

[IceSpear]

It's not looking great for Jones.

It never was.